Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is back to the True position with the track currently rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:35PM GOLDEN GIFT (1100 METRES)|
Plague Stone couldn’t have been any more impressive in his one Canterbury trial. He bounced out, travelled well and then really let down when Brenton Avdulla woke him up in the straight. He quickly put a gap on his rivals in the manner of a smart youngster. Being out of a mare that won only twice over staying trips and placed in a Tassie Oaks doesn’t scream two-year-old but you just have to trust your eye on him. Is he entitled to be $1.75 given what looks to be a deep, unexposed race? Probably not but guess we’ll only know the answer to that after the race!
Danger: Secret Lady was very good on debut free-rolling out in front only to be run down late by Dynamited. She clocked 33.73s for her last 600m via Punters’ Intel. With race experience on her side, she’ll be the one to gun down.
How to play it: Plague Stone WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds)
Plague Stone’s impressive trial romp – Nov 3
|Race 2 - 1:15PM THE HQ OF INSURANCE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Remember thinking that Poetic Charmer was disappointing two starts back when he was an odds on favourite at Canterbury. He ran second. The filly that beat him was Unforgotten! We know what she has done since. After that the Snowden team took Poetic Charmer to Newcastle, whacked the blinkers on and stepped him up over 1400m. It was pretty painless. The three-year-old colt maps to tuck in behind Maid Marilyn and Radiant Choice here and get his chance with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. He’s a smart horse and would suggest readers take the $6 with TAB Fixed Odds while it is still there.
Danger: Star Sensation is getting better every start this campaign and expect her to improve yet again tackling this race fourth up. She has won two on the trot and the latest was most impressive asserting her dominance over the final stages (only runner in the race to break 12s home clocking 11.84 via Punters’ Intel) The big weight and the firm track being queries with her.
How to play it: Poetic Charmer WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Poetic Charmer running second to Unforgotten
|Race 3 - 1:50PM LUNA PARK HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Mornington had appeared in a few Melbourne jumpouts before making his Australian debut for Chris Waller so he slipped under the radar of many punters. Liked what we saw from the five-year-old import sitting close to the pace and maintaining his speed throughout. He was no match at the finish for Carzoff and Lord Kingsley but both have gone on to since frank the form and you’d expect Mornington to come on plenty from the hit out. Drawn soft in barrier 2 and with just 53.5kg on his back, happy to take the punt on him.
Danger: Dagny tests uncharted waters beyond a mile but the time is right to give her the chance. She couldn’t be any fitter. She was beaten less than a length by Just Dreaming last time out and liked how she showed the versatility to sit outside of the leader there. Would like to see the same positive tactics adopted.
How to play it: Mornington WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Dagny ($4.60)
Mornington’s encouraging Australian debut
|Race 4 - 2:25PM BEDFORD CA HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Conchita has reinvented herself this preparation. Once a high-balling 1000m specialist the now four-year-old mare has been coached to take a sit and finish her races off. She returns to Sydney after three runs in Melbourne which included a luckless second first up followed by a fourth and fifth both in Stakes company, running the fastest last 600m in the latest of them. Drawn barrier 2, you’d expect Brenton Avdulla to be instructed to find cover but not be too far off the leaders. Box seat perhaps. She’s the wildcard in the race.
Danger: Zonk fits into this race beautifully again. She is hard to oppose having drawn soft and will again take control from the front. Would have been keener on the chances of Anatola had she drawn in. Loved her first up effort behind Slow Burn after being trapped throughout. Could very well suffer the same fate here. Vigilance gets the blinkers on which could spark her up.
How to play it: Conchita EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Anatola covered plenty of ground first up
|Race 5 - 3:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Realing was outstanding in a Highway Handicap the late time we sighted him, overcoming a slow start to rattle down the outside to run second. The jump out to 1500m suits and although he’ll be giving another start, he possesses the quality to reel in his rivals. The way Tye Angland is riding he’ll know when to make his move. This horse was running in Group races last campaign so forgive him the string of outs. As the history of the Highways will tell you, you won’t go too far wrong following the Matthew Dunn stable either!
Danger: Salesman started $5 in a midweek race at Warwick Farm two starts back. He overdid it in front and finished last. Was freshened after that to tackle a Goulburn 1200m race and worked through the line nicely. Can see him figuring in the finish at $15. Schedule for the exotics only.
How to play it: Realing WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Realing rattling home from a long way back last start
|Race 6 - 3:40PM THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS NSW HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Thought Just Dreaming was very good in getting the job done last time out. It looked hairy for a few strides but once Rachel King hooked her out she sprinted nicely to win quite comfortably in the end. It added another string to her bow having previously been pegged as a gutsy front-running type. Senior hoop Corey Brown takes over from King here and she’ll be right at the top of her game now fourth up. She loves Rosehill winning three from four and Victorian visitor Star Fortune will give her a bunny to chase down. Should win again.
Danger: Zumbelina possesses a paralysing sprint on firm ground and she is sure to get that again come Saturday. She has won five from seven on Good tracks including last start when making her rivals look second rate (clocking 34s flat for her last 600m via Punters’ Intel). She’ll settle back in the field from the wide draw, and be sighting Just Dreaming a big start, but will be the one closing hardest late.
How to play it: Just Dreaming WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
A repeat of last start please Just Dreaming…
|Race 7 - 4:20PM THE COUNTRY CLASSIC (2000 METRES)|
Wildflower is $31 coming off a long last and a Highway 10th but stay with me for a minute on this one. My reasoning is that she is just desperate for a trip. She gets that here out to 2000m in a race which looks a logical target for her to have been aimed up at all along. Also in her favour is that, as a general rule, when she gets out over ground she puts herself right up on the pace. Last preparation she took the scalps of Vaucluse Bay over 1800m and then won at Randwick beating Loving Home over 2000m. It’s a throw at the stumps to suggest she can improve enough but she is worth a ticket at the odds in what looks a very open race!
Danger: Zamex didn’t shirk his task in a much deeper race than this last time out behind Carzoff, Lord Kingsley, Mornington and Impavido. It’s the best form in the race but the gamble comes with his racing pattern. He’ll be spotting another big start. Miss Dubois also brings city class form and looks ripe for 2000m. Will need Kerrin McEvoy to coax her through her flat spot.
How to play it: Wildflower EACH WAY ($31 TAB Fixed Odds)
Wildflower beating Vaucluse Bay at Hawkesbury
|Race 8 - 5:00PM GOLDNERS HORSE TRANSPORT HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Ozark has raced without luck this preparation and this assignment sets up for him to give it a shake. The last time we saw him he speared home out wide to run second to Pomelo with Best Guess running third, who has since trotted in himself. In his two runs prior to that he had impeded runs. Drawn out suits this horse as it’ll give Corey Brown the chance to be in plenty of clear air and find a back to work into the race. You’d expect Don’t Tease Me to kick up and hold the front with The Pharaoh and Realised Potential keeping him company. The breaks look in Ozark’s favour this time so happy to play at $8.
Danger: Not sure what Rory Hutchings will do on Bon Amis from out there. There is enough speed underneath him to make his task tricky if he wants to hunt forward. The conservative play would be to ride him cold and bank on his brilliant turn of foot. He’s clearly good enough but $2.60 is on the skinny side. Never underestimate a winner and Test The World is exactly that!
How to play it: Ozark WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Ozark thundering home behind Pomelo
|Race 9 - 5:40PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Dreamforce had his chance first up but was beaten by the fit and flying Redouble who has since won again. The now five-year-old has got to start turning placings into wins but having been gelded this time in I’m inclined to start off a clean slate and judge him purely off his first up run. He strips fitter, the step out to 1500m suits and will make his own luck once again. The front looks his with King Darci scratched. Like the booking of Brenton Avdulla too. If Dreamforce needs to find that extra half a head to fight off those coming at him late, ‘The Gun’ is the man for the job.
Danger: Our Belisa and Istria come into this off a string of wins and their latest by huge margins. They both rise a couple of classes here and get back onto a firm track but they are two mares right at the peak of their powers. Expect High Mist to improve sharply off his last start effort when flushed wide.
How to play it: Dreamforce WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dreamforce being pegged back by Redouble first up