Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for the Rosehill’s BMW meeting which also includes the Group One Vinery Stud Stakes.
|Race 1 - 12:20PM THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400 METRES)|
Astoria justified Godolphin’s big opinion of him on debut at Warwick Farm. The Medaglia d’Oro colt had shown plenty in his trials and took that form to the races, displaying a great of foot on heavy ground to put his rivals away. James Doyle who only returns from injury this Saturday will need to be right on his game from the start given the wide draw. However, as he showed at Warwick Farm, he can sit wide in the run and still produce a big finish. In a two-year-old year lacking a standout colt, he may be the one to come to the fore late.
Danger: Villa Carlotta was beaten out of sight by Frolic and She Will Reign in the Reisling but as we subsequently saw in the Golden Slipper, that form line looks particularly strong! Looks to handle the wet fine and out to 1400m suits.
How to play it: Astoria WIN
Astoria’s debut victory
|Race 2 - 1:00PM E-GROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Willing to give Impending another chance in this company. He was disappointing first-up but was only beaten 3.4L by Le Romain before the blinkers went on in the Canterbury Stakes where he was a touch out of his depth. He was hardly disgraced though, again by Le Romain where Chautauqua and Hauraki were the only others to beat him home. Another big factor is the return to Rosehill where he has raced so well in the past. Both of his wins have been at the track and he ran third there in the Golden Rose. The $4.20 (at time of writing) is tempting enough and he could even drift further.
Danger: Some sort of case can be mounted for every runner in the race. Danish Twist has been enigmatic this campaign but comes out of a high-rating Coolmore.
How to play it: Impending WIN
Impending’s Canterbury Stakes fourth
|Race 3 - 1:35PM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Assign has skipped the Mornington Cup in preference for this assignment and the $11 looks extremely generous. He was out the back at Caulfield first-up and although he ran last, it wasn’t too bad. He produced a very similar pipe opener last campaign before running two lengths second to the subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Almandin. After that showing he won the Group Two Herbert Power from the front. His one heavy track run came on debut where he ran second and the Montjeu’s generally have no trouble handling the wet. When Lloyd Williams shoots them up the Hume, you must pay them massive respect. Jockey Ben Melham has his tail up at the moment too.
Danger: Floodlight was an eye-catcher on his Australian debut in the Ajax Stakes and will love getting out to 2000m. He is a classy horse. Astronomos belted his rivals in heavy going last start and will get conditions to suit again. Short enough though.
How to play it: Assign EACH-WAY
Floodlight’s eye-catching Ajax run
|Race 4 - 2:15PM RYDGES PARRAMATTA DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500 METRES)|
Spectroscope hit the ground running in Australia which generally suggests they are high-class imports (think Contributer and Hartnell). He showed great acceleration to round up his rivals and beat off the challenge of handy mare Extensible. John O’Shea said during the week that he “has trained on beautifully” too. He’ll need to improve off that to win this but there’s no doubt he had plenty in him. Tipping he can do some damage here out to 1500m and with 53kg on his back.
Danger: New Tipperary is a key scracthing. That leaves three-year-old Echo Effect as the likely leader and the one to catch. Kenjorwood is ready to show something now third-up. Assume they ride him closer now he is fit.
How to play it: Spectroscope WIN
Spectroscope impressive Aussie debut
|Race 5 - 2:50PM POWER DISTRIBUTION AUSTRALIA TULLOCH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Tipping an 11-start maiden Hollywood Mo in the Tulloch which suggests just how tricky the race is this year. Prized Icon didn’t go a yard in the wet in the Rosehill Guineas (where Hollywood beat him home) so doubt he finds himself loving it seven days later. Hollywood Mo should be at his top now fourth-up and he did run second in a Geelong Classic last campaign before running sixth in the VIC Derby beaten only 4.7L by Prized Icon while he was within a length of Inference and So Si Bon. Taking a punt at $18.
Danger: Jon Snow has been heavily backed but is it an overreaction after Gingernuts won so well last week? He is not in the same class despite finishing third in the NZ Derby. However, he’ll stay all day and won’t find a more suitable Group Two in Australia.
How to play it: Hollywood Mo EACH WAY
Watch the late work from Hollywood Mo last Saturday
|Race 6 - 3:30PM THE BMW (2400 METRES)|
Love how this race sets up for Tavago. He relished the hot speed in the Sky High to romp in and he was far from his top there, only being second-up. Lasqueti Spirit will be adopting her catch me if you can tactics from the Oaks which will ensure The BMW is a strong staying test. Jameka should settle handy with Tavago tagging her back into the race as she does the donkey work to cart the rest of the field up to Lasqueti. Go back to his ATC Derby win where he gave Jameka a beating to remember exactly how well this now four-year-old can stay.
Danger: Our Ivanhowe is scratched which leaves a big hole in the race. However, don't discount Exospheric who ran a bottler in the Australian Cup. Would have been on top if it was dry!
How to play it: Tavago WIN
Tavago’s dominant Sky High win
|Race 7 - 4:10PM VINERY STUD STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Dawn Wall has done nothing wrong to date and there is a real sense of timing about this Oaks-bound filly. There was so much merit in her Kembla Classic win back the mile when she was probably already looking for a trip. Go back to her Rosehill 1800m win and you’ll find Impavido ran (a luckless) third which stacks up well now. Dawn Wall loses the services of Kerrin McEvoy but gains those of Ben Melham. She got through the soft conditions well enough last start, however the genuine heavy track does pose some query.
Danger: Stablemate Foxplay was entitled to win the Phar Lap given the spot she was in but a cool ride and a brilliant display of acceleration saw her reel in Zenalicious. She is untried at the trip and the heavy track isn’t ideal, as evidenced by her plodding fourth in the Surround behind La Bella Diosa who also line up here looking to bounce back from a horrible Coolmore run.
How to play it: Dawn Wall WIN
Dawn Wall’s Kembla Classic win
|Race 8 - 4:50PM ASCEND SALES TROPHIES EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500 METRES)|
Dixie Blossoms gave in meekly in the Coolmore Stud Stakes but she was never on the track from the wide gate. If she can reproduce her Guy Walter run here (which was also on heavy ground) she is clearly the one to beat. Very keen for Jason Collett to press on from another wide draw to take up the running. She is very well treated under the set weight and penalty conditions of the race. She was an impressive fourth-up winner last preparation too so don’t expect her to start slowing down at this time in her campaign.
Danger: Ron Quinton looks to hold two aces in the race with Daysee Doom the logical danger. She boxed on well in the Coolmore to run fourth and should be right at her top now third-up. It was this time last preparation where she really hit her straps. Big watch on Spectroscope earlier in the day to see if the Extensible form gets an extra push.
How to play it: Dixie Blossoms WIN and SAVE Daysee Doom
THAT Dixie Blossoms win if you need a refresher
|Race 9 - 5:30PM EFM LOGISTICS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Ancient History was rolled as favourite at the provincials in a Class 3 on his Australian debut but suspect we’ll see a much improved horse with that fresh edge knocked off him. They nipped home in 33.72s there which didn’t really seem to suit him either. He can race keenly so it’ll be imperative that Corey Brown tucks him in behind likely leader Violier. This son of Shamardal has only had seven starts so it will be interesting to see how he progresses. Godolphin originally nominated him for the Doncaster and Queen Elizabeth.
Danger: His stablemate Handfast is the one already with the runs on the board but there’s a 6.5kg difference and he leaves you wondering if he’ll ever stick his neck out again to claim top honours. He certainly doesn’t make a habit of it.
How to play it: Ancient History WIN
Ancient History at Kembla first-up