Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The $1,000,000 Group One Golden Rose (1400m) sees Menari as an even money favourite ahead of the likes of Pariah, Merchant Navy, Gold Standard. There’s also the Gloaming Stakes, Shannon Stakes and Golden Pendant to be run and won.
The rail is out 3m the entire while the track is rated a Good 4.
|Race 1 - 12:15PM NATHAN'S FAMOUS HOTDOGS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Paret was an impressive winner on debut at Canterbury, suggestive that he is a group horse in the making. Will it be as soon as this spring? Maybe not but Chris Waller refuses to rule out the Caulfield Guineas or Coolmore just yet. He has drawn wide which will see him drop out the back but Hugh Bowman is the best in the business at knowing the right time to creep into the race. Given the way he won 10 days ago, don’t mind the thought of him having plenty of time to work through his gears. You only get one chance to back a horse going through the grades. Jump on the Paret bandwagon early.
Danger: Beau Geste had a big spruik on him going into his first up run and although he wasn’t disgraced behind Super Ex (who ran slick time out in front) still expected a touch more from him at the finish. He’s worth another chance.
How to play it: Paret ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Paret’s big debut win at Canterbury
|Race 2 - 12:50PM COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)|
Broadside beat Auvray in the Newcastle Cup and expecting the same exacta in the Colin Stephen. The beauty of Broadside is that he’ll be rolling along dictating the race and in this small field that gives him an obvious tactical advantage. It’s easy to forget that he was only second up at Newcastle after an eight week freshen so expect further improvement again here. He is starting to creep up in the weights carrying 58kg but with his free-rolling style it’s less of a burden.
Danger: Auvray would need the right race shape, which looks unlikely, but he is certainly in a purple patch of form running Broadside to less than half a length at Newcastle while taking the scalp of Sayed prior to that.
How to play it: Broadside WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds)
Newcastle Cup where Broadside and Auvray fought it out
|Race 3 - 1:25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Don’t Give A Damn has by far the superior form line heading into this having run Suncraze to a short margin in a Highway last start. The only query is the 1500m. If he was tackling 1200m again, he’d be considerably shorter than his $2.20 quote. That’s not to say he still won’t start closer to even money in this. He has drawn soft and with Kerrin McEvoy steering, will get his chance. Last start won only his second ever start so he is far from the finished product.
Danger: None jump out off the form guide. Catch The Culprit was strong winner at Moruya last start and has since trialled nicely. He’ll be finding the line late and although it’s hard to see him beating the favourite, he looks the quinella option.
How to play it: Don’t Give A Damn WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Don’t Give A Damn running a close second to Suncraze
|Race 4 - 2:00PM RANVET HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Up ‘N’ Rolling has won two from two this time in and both wins were in emphatic fashion. He’s a stayer very much on the up and another win here would tempt Chris Waller to throw him into next week’s Metrop. He should be able to park in the box seat behind Thewayweare and Zaukonig. That duo will likely drop off early in the straight which will see Up ‘N’ Rolling in front a long way from home which leaves him vulnerable late but he should pack enough to get home.
Danger: Imanui looked home last start but the month between runs probably proved the difference. If Up ‘N’ Rolling is left a sitting shot, he’s more than capable of winning this. He is untried at 2000m but doubt that pulls him up. Alward looks desperate for 2400m to my eye.
How to play it: Up ‘N’ Rolling WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Up ‘N’ Rolling winning at Randwick last start
|Race 5 - 2:35PM SCHWEPPES SHANNON STAKES (1500 METRES)|
Dawn Wall rises sharply in grade to tackle Group Two company having run second to Washington Heights last start who she meets again here. The Fastnet Rock mare loomed to win first up but peaked on her run late which allowed Washington Heights to kick back. She’ll come on from that. Egg Tart has demanded plenty of attention this spring but let’s not forget that as a filly Dawn Wall was held is the same regard. Imposing Lass is set to run along which will break up the field and allow Corey Brown to pick his way through the field with Dawn Wall.
Danger: Suspect Euro Angel does her best work fresh so there is some chance we see a bit of a dip in her form third up but she is going too well at the moment to dismiss too lightly. Imposing Lass looked disappointing on face value at Newcastle but it was dominated by horses finishing down the middle of the track.
How to play it: Dawn Wall WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dawn Wall fighting out the finish with Washington Heights
|Race 6 - 3:15PM JAMES BOAG'S PREMIUM GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)|
The market starting to correct itself now but was surprised at the odds on offer for David Payne’s three-year-old Ace High. He looks every bit a stayer and has had a perfect preparation leading into this. He scored a confidence boosting win at Kembla first up before not getting much luck in the Up and Coming finishing on the heels of Sanctioned who is a $3.60 chance here. He then ran the best closing splits in the Stan Fox and that again ties in with Sanctioned. Payne has come out this week and said they’ll try to be closer which bodes well for his chances. Also like that Tye Angland had that ride on him last start and will know he’ll have to wind him up early.
Danger: Like Ace High, Sanctioned comes through the strongest races and is another that shapes like he’ll relish the 1800m. Hugh Bomwan steers and he should get a lovely trail from barrier 3. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the market flip with him starting favourite over stablemate Astoria.
How to play it: Ace High EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Ace High was an eye-catcher in the Stan Fox – also look for Sanctioned
|Race 7 - 3:55PM DE BORTOLI WINES GOLDEN ROSE (1400 METRES)|
Gold Standard paraded in outstanding order ahead of the Stan Fox and ran accordingly, cruising away from his rivals. Every time he has been to the races he has improved so would expect that again going into the Golden Rose. He is a horse that is clearly thriving on racing. He has shown that he isn’t on dimensional either which could prove significant with so much speed drawn inside and outside of him. If he can find himself camped outside of the leader or one-out-one-back, he’ll take holding out. The more genuine the tempo, the better suited he looks. Big odds.
Danger: No doubting Menari’s ability. He is every inch a star colt but just find it hard to come into him at $2.10. Tipping he touches $2.30-2.40 closer to the race which is more attractive. The map is a touch sticky for him too. Three wide with cover looks the best likely scenario. Assimilate and Shogun Sun for the multiples.
How to play it: Gold Standard WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Menari ($2.10)
Gold Standard dominating the Stan Fox last start
|Race 8 - 4:35PM GOLDEN PENDANT (1400 METRES)|
Convinced that Daysee Doom has returned better than ever this time in and her first up run did nothing to dent that belief. She found the 1200m a touch sharp but loved the way she pinned back her ears and found the line. Over 1400m she should be able to take up a much closer spot. The wide gate probably forces Andrew Adkins’ hand to push on. With Bonny O’reilly likely to take a sit, she maps to find herself outside of Sweet Redemption and from there she’d take plenty of holding out.
Danger: How many last chances can a horse get? That being said, Omei Sword has had genuine excuses in both starts this time in. She went down on her nose first up before being set mission impossible from the gate last time. Sits much closer in this. Danish Twist next best.
How to play it: Daysee Doom WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Daysee Doom, Omei Sword and Danish Twist all ran in the Sheraco
|Race 9 - 5:15PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Zumbelina was very good winning first up beating the race fit Tango Rain. She parked third stalking the speed and dashed too well when the run appeared along the inside. It was great to see her race with such tractability. She maps to get a very similar run here and with any luck at the top of the straight, confident she’ll be winning again. She had won four from five on good tracks and is even better suited out to 1400m. She is also undefeated on her home patch Rosehill in four previous outings. She looks to have returned a more furnished mare this time in and wouldn’t be surprised if she found herself contesting a Group race or two over the spring.
Danger: Wayanka won on protest last start but that doesn’t take away anything from his win there. He chased with plenty of desire and is right at the top of his game at the moment. Watch for Impavido late.
How to play it: Zumbelina WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Zumbelina won well first up at Rosehill