Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for the massive ten race card at Rosehill featuring five Group Ones including the Golden Slipper and Winx in the George Ryder.
|Race 1 - 12:15PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS & SPAS N E MANION CUP (2400 METRES)|
Kinema looks ready to show his best out to 2400m and with two runs under his belt. He only got warm at the end of 2000m in the Randwick City Stakes last start. This six-year-old took not time to acclimatize to Australian racing last spring, running fourth in the Geelong Cup only beaten 3L by Qewy before winning impressively at Flemington. Chris Waller said himself “he’ll need every bit of the 2400m” but the heavy track (which he seemed to get through okay last start) will make this into a genuine slog which plays into his hands. Opportunistic jockey booking too with Ryan Moore, who is out here to ride in the Golden Slipper, engaged having ridden him to victory at Flemington.
Danger: Darren Weir will be hoping Big Duke is the horse to break his Sydney hoodoo having won three of his past four. Untried on heavy ground but has soft form in the UK which generally transfers to heavy form in Australia. Our Century’s wet form is much better than it reads on paper. He finished fourth behind Kingfisher and Bow Creek early in his career.
How to play it: Kinema WIN
Kinema’s last start fifth
|Race 2 - 12:55PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Very keen on the chances of Samantha. This filly has charged through the grades this preparation after starting it as a maiden. She has won three from four this time in and last start motored through the wet to nab Glenall in the Listed Fireball Stakes. That prompted Gerald Ryan to declare her one of the best wet trackers he has ever saddled. Throw into the mix that she is rock hard fit and slips into the race with 53kg. Right place, right time for Samantha to add a Group Three to her page.
Danger: Raiment is a really talented filly and should be undefeated in her last four outings. In that miss she was luckless behind In Her Time who subsequently won back-to-back Group Twos and ran fifth in the Group One Coolmore. The query is her fitness off a two month freshen and one trial under her belt. Hieroglyphics best of the rest.
How to play it: Samantha WIN
Samantha swimming to her Fireball victory
|Race 3 - 1:30PM QUICKWAY CONSTRUCTIONS DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Tactical Advantage looks a top shelf sprinter in the making. He has the picket fence of four straight wins next to his name and deserves his crack at black type now. He was brilliant in disposing of Scarlet Rain last start (albeit with a big weight difference) on soft going. He has never raced on a heavy track, outside of his last start trial where Glyn Schofield couldn’t have had him under a tighter hold. James Cummings has implemented a system of trialling many of his runners in between starts and it has brought great success. Expect Tactcial Advantage to make it five straight before getting a crack at Group company (most logically the Arrowfield over The Championships).
Danger: Crafty Cop is often his own worst enemy but once he learns how to settle in his races, he has the ability to win a race like this. Led throughout at Canterbury on a heavy track last start beating subsequent winner Lay Down The Law.
How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN
Tactical Advantage romping away last start
|Race 4 - 2:05PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)|
What do you do with Hartnell? He was brilliant first-up in the Apollo behind Winx before putting in a shocker in the Chipping Norton. He travelled wide and never really found his rhythm but he showed very little fight to drop out to run ninth. It’s worth noting that on the four occasions he avoided Winx last preparation he won three of them by a space and ran third in the Melbourne Cup. He is also two from two at Rosehill. Forgive a good horse one bad run. And a good horse he definitely is given he is currently ranked third in the world behind Winx and Arrogate (USA).
Danger: Terrified of Antonio Giuseppe bouncing straight back. He was found half a run short in the Sky High after Red Excitement turned it into a genuine staying test. Antonio looks a Group One winner in the making. The United States won this race last year off a seven day back-up.
How to play it: Hartnell WIN
A repeat of Hartnell’s first-up run would win this
|Race 5 - 2:45PM CHINA HORSE CLUB GEORGE RYDER (1500 METRES)|
Winx meets a Chautauqua for the first time but she is cut from a different cloth. She ticked the wet track box again in the Chipping Norton if there was doubt it would leave her vulnerable. She is the best horse in the world and should have little trouble making it 16 straight defending her George Ryder title in the process.
Danger: No dangers but expect Chautauqua to play his role in the build-up to run second. No query on the wet and shapes like he’ll love edging out closer to the mile. The inside draw is far from ideal though so Tommy Berry will need to be right on his game throughout. Le Romain is so honest while McCreery will be looking to top off his Doncaster campaign.
How to play it: Winx, Chautauqua Quinella
Another excuse to watch Winx win the Chipping Norton again
|Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)|
Convinced Inference has the Australian Derby at his mercy. Suspected he’d need 2000m to start winning over the autumn but he zoomed home out wide to take out the Randwick Guineas in brilliant fashion. He found the fast lane down the outside fence but don’t that that fool you. The penny is really starting to drop for him. Prized Icon and Impavido are also trending the right way but think Inference has the makings of a very serious animal.
Danger: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young are exceptionally talented trainers and in particular with stayers. They of course guided Tavago to his Australian Derby win last year. They saddle up Anaheim here and he’s a big hope of winning. Charged home in the Australian Guineas and gets Hugh Bowman aboard.
How to play it: Inference WIN and Anaheim WIN
Inference winning the Randwick Guineas
|Race 7 - 4:10PM LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200 METRES)|
So many question marks loom over the Golden Slipper form with key hopes Houtzen and Catchy untried on a heavy track. The closest Catchy has ever come to a wet track was a Good 4. With that in mind, happy to play Tulip after she impressed in the Magic Night at Rosehill. Backs up here seven days later so fitness won’t beat her while she also ticked the wet track box. She Will Reign looked to be beaten by the track pattern in the Reisling as opposed to the wet track bringing her undone. Danger: Catchy shows great desire to win her races and that’ll hold her in good stead in testing conditions. Should be able to tuck in midfield behind a good speed before getting her chance. If she handles the wet, she’s the one to beat.
How to play it: Tulip WIN and Catchy WIN
Tulip impressed in the Magic Night
|Race 8 - 4:50PM NATHAN'S FAMOUS HOTDOGS GALAXY (1100 METRES)|
Russian Revolution has won four from five and suffered his only defeat in the Coolmore Stud Stakes when fourth, only beaten 2L. He has trialled twice, and impressively, and carries just 50.5kg. All of the speed has drawn wide, including him, so Kerrin McEvoy will need to assess what Redzel and Heatherly do inside him. Fellow three-year-old Glenall doesn’t yet quite have the CV of Russian Revolution but he has so much promise and meets him with two runs already under his belt. The latest on a Heavy 10 where beaten by mudlark Samantha.
Danger: English and Redzel fought out a thrilling finish in the Challenge and a repeat of those runs has them right at the pointy end again here. Redzel drops 4kg back to handicap conditions. Faatinah the knockout.
How to play it: Glenall WIN and SAVE Russian Revolution
Glenall’s brave second in the Fireball
|Race 9 - 5:30PM BRADFORD BLACK EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)|
Mick Kent has tested the waters with Supido and Comic Set in Sydney over the carnival for two thirds and sneaks staying mare Consommateur into the Epona on Saturday. She won well at Sandown last start over 1500m and looks set to relish the step out to 1900m. Ticked the wet track box with a dominant maiden display early in her career. Would be all over Happy Hannah on a dry track but have grave doubts about her handling a heavy track. Especially when 1400m straight out to 1900m.
Danger: Alegria has built beautifully into her preparation this time around with two fast-finishing placings. It is Alegria though and as her 20:3-3-8 suggests, she doesn’t win out of turn. Song And Laughter is a swimmer and her last start fourth had merit after taking off early.
How to play it: Consommateur WIN
Alegria will be looking to turn the tables on Elle Lou
|Race 10 - 6:05PM PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS QUALIFIER (1200 METRES)|
Have got plenty of time for Pomelo. She is flying this time in having recorded a dominant win at Kembla Grange running sharp time over 1000m (56.48s) before winning with as much conviction at Randwick. Out to 1200m won’t pull her up and although untried on a heavy surface her soft form suggests it won’t be a problem. Wouldn’t be surprised if she won this before going close in the Provincial Championships Final come early April.
Danger: Machinegun Jubs fits a similar profile in being a talented four-year-old still with her best in front of her. Invincible George is capable of tearing home at the end of his races but unsure about him on a heavy track.
How to play it: Pomelo WIN
Pomelo’s three length win last start