Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Quietly confident there are a couple of winners below. The track is in the heavy range at the time of writing.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM TAB HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
Bull Market comes off a provincial maiden win but there was plenty to like about the victory given he was posted wide the trip. The margin to second was only narrow in the end but suspect Organza is a handy filly and there was a space back to third. Peter and Paul Snowden are arguably the best in the country at preparing two-year-olds while Kerrin McEvoy has been riding in spectacular form for some time now. Expect the son of Written Tycoon to cross with Hualalai from barrier 8 and sit outside of him in the run.
Danger: Momentum To Win was very good first-up at the midweeks behind I Am Excited. That form should stack up here and he wants every inch of the 1400m now. David Payne has a habit of popping up with two-year-olds at odds. Have to respect race favourite Gaulois.
How to play it: Bull Market WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bull Market’s brave Newcastle win last start
|Race 2 - 12:00PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
There is another win in Insensata very soon and she is suited out to 1400m third-up and on a wet track, which we know she handles. She was luckless first-up at Warwick Farm before settling out the back in a sit and sprint affair at Rosehill. Her late sectionals were exceptional so don’t overlook her on the basis that she ran seventh. The Jason Coyle-trained filly should be able to settle closer from the good draw and Arbeitsam will be kept honest by Just Dreaming ensuring he doesn’t get it all his own way again.
Danger: Arbeitsam was suited by the shape of the race first-up but he still ran well and also looks suited out to 1400m. He’ll be hard to catch. Faraway Town comes out of the same race too and her late sectionals were also outstanding. A second career win is long overdue for her. No excuse for High Mist now third-up.
How to play it: Insensata WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Insensata, Arbeitsam and Faraway Town all come out of the same race
|Race 3 - 12:35PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
It’s sometimes easy to get too clever in Highway Handicaps but at the end of the day Zamex is the best horse in the race. He jumped with them last start (after missing the start horribly at the Gold Coast the start prior) and put his rivals away without too much fuss. He’ll be giving away another big start, especially from the wide draw, but with even luck he should prevail again. He is a still a work in progress but he is very smart. A win here would see Matty Dunn level up with Matty Dale on nine Highway Handicap victories.
Danger: Mister Marmalade gave cheek first-up against Zamex pinching a break at the top of the straight but he ran out of petrol 200m from home. He’ll come on from that. Nick Heywood replaces Deanne Panya. Forever Newyork next best.
How to play it: Zamex WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Zamex rounding up Mister Marmalade last start
|Race 4 - 1:10PM PRO RATA ATC MEMBERSHIP ON SALE SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Test The World is a winner. She made it three straight this preparation at Rosehill last start and took her overall record to 6:4-1-1. Bjorn Baker is patiently working her through her grades and this assignment looks very suitable. She is a versatile mare so Jason Collett will have plenty of options in the run. Don’t expect her to be too far away, stalking the speed. She nosed out Arbeitsam last start so we’ll get an earlier pointer to the strength of that form.
Danger: Validate was scratched from Gosford on Friday for this tougher, albeit suitable assignment. Loved her last start win after travelling without cover throughout. With 53kg on her back and Tim Clark steering, expect her to be in the first two. Upscale finished less than half a length off subsequent July Stakes winner The Monstar first-up. She is classy but pays for it with 58.5kg. Big question marks over her at 1200m and on a heavy track too.
How to play it: Test The World WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Validate’s dominant Gosford win
|Race 5 - 1:45PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Liapari did his best work across the line at Rosehill last start when never really clear until the bird had flown. Hugh Bowman will need to be right at the top of his game to extricate this four-year-old off the fence from barrier 2 but with Signposted rolling along in front and Kingsguard and Reiby The Red also handy, it should break the field up enough for him to weave a path. Way back in his Kiwi days, he won on a Heavy 10 so the wet track holds zero fears. Chris Waller has been using the trial between runs with great success recently.
Danger: Moss ‘N’ Dale has been expertly placed here by Melbourne raider Peter Gelagotis given his fondness of wet tracks. The son of Castledale boasts the record of 8:5-2-0 on tracks in the Soft and Heavy range. He has found his price at $2.90 though.
How to play it: Liapari WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Liapari closed well last start
|Race 6 - 2:25PM KENSEI HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Was great to see Rachel King adopt ‘catch me if you can’ tactics on Supply And Demand last start and she was rewarded with the son of Sebring holding a space on his rivals in the end. He steps out again in trip but the way he ran through the line over 1800m suggests the 2000m won’t be a problem. He sneaks in with another very light weight again too (52.5kg after the claim). Should be able to control proceedings from the front once more and the wet track won’t be the reason he is beat.
Danger: Sultan Of Swing has been scratched and he looked the danger. Tucanchoo chased home Supply And Demand last start and although he has a task turning the tables, he’ll be thereabouts again.
How to play it: Supply And Demand WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Supply And Demand never gave his rivals a hope last start
|Race 7 - 3:05PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Magic Alibi is first-up after six months off without a trial but there is no doubt a method to the madness. This daughter of Star Witness flies fresh (4:2-0-1 first-up). She resumed at Rosehill in a Group Three last preparation and ran third only beaten half a length by subsequent Group One-winner Heavens Above. She hasn’t seen too many wet tracks but the last time she did (which was a Soft 7 at Canterbury) she ran fourth beaten 2.8L by Daysee Doom. With Kerrin McEvoy steering, she is worth a gamble at the odds on offer.
Danger: Badajoz is always hard in the market and although he rarely runs poorly, he doesn’t make a habit of winning with three wins from 15 starts. He has placed in a further eight. Even money ($1.92 TAB Fixed Odds) to run a hole probably isn’t a bad bet. Sir Plush is a handy galloper but doesn’t go a yard in the wet.
How to play it: Magic Alibi WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Magic Alibi’s fresh run last campaign was in Group Three company
|Race 8 - 3:45PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Carzoff was a real eye-catcher on his Australian debut for Chris Waller. He settled a clear last before from a wide gate before rattling home over the mile behind Pelorus Jack. That was midweek company but this race isn’t a great deal harder to be honest. He’ll appreciate the extra 200m, will strip fitter and Hugh Bowman stays on board. Also like the fact that there was betting confidence around him first-up suggesting it was no surprise to the stable to see him run so well. Has a level of upside few of these can match.
Danger: King’s Officer has put in a couple of nice efforts this time in and a wet track is what he needs to return to the winners’ stall. He’s a knockout hope. Collateral is chasing a hattrick for the flying Bjorn Baker stable.
How to play it: Carzoff WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Carzoff’s Australian debut at Warwick Farm
|Race 9 - 4:25PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
Not an easy finish to the meeting! Dream Lane was never in the hunt last start at Rosehill. Prior to that she savaged the line behind Bonny O’reilly to run third. Wild ‘N’ Famous (scratched from this race) ran second in that race and found himself the early $4.80 favourite, albeit coming off a much better subsequent run. Go back three runs and she was beaten less than six lengths by Clearly Innocent in the Listed Luskin Star. Dream Lane boasts a handy record at Rosehill (5:1-0-2) and shapes like she wants 1350m now. At the odds on offer, she is worth a ticket.
Danger: The two emergencies Francesco and All In The Reflexs are genuine threats now they've made the field. Invincible Knight was outstanding first-up over 1200m but tipping that takes the fresh edge off him now and the wide gate with 61kg poses a massive challenge.
How to play it: Dream Lane WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds)
Wild ‘N’ Famous and Dream Lane placing behind Bonny O’reilly