Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Rosehill Gardens is rated a Soft 6 (as of Friday afternoon) and with fine weather forecast there is some chance of a further upgrade. The rail is in the True with the first to jump at 11:25am local time.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
There is so much to admire about the way Ronstar goes about his racing. He simply refuses to lose. He was there to be beaten in both of his wins to date but kept finding when another horse levelled up to eyeball him. Irish Bet, who is scratched from this race due to an impending sale to Hong Kong, looked to have Ronstar cold last start but (and you can watch the replay below) right on the line you’ll see Ronstar going away at the finish. Trainer Gary Portelli has flagged his intentions for Winona Costin to get rolling as they turn for home out to 1400m and again he’ll be hard to peg back in a race where he looks to get complete control out in front.
Danger: Pedicel got the job done well enough on debut at Canterbury for the Hayes camp. There is a big query around the depth of form in that race with Tell Me (third) and Singing Sand (fourth) running fairly since, again in midweek grade. You have got to factor in natural improvement though. Toulouse is a curious runner. He returns a gelding having shown glimpses of ability as an early two-year-old over unsuitably short trips. First up over 1400m looks ideal here. It was hard to get any real guide off his two very quiet trials.
How to play it: Ronstar WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Ronstar digging in to win again at Rosehill last start
|Race 2 - 12:00PM ASCOT RESTAURANT SALE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Gresham is racing with an air of invincibility at the moment. Never thought I’d be saying about Gresham - a horse that took eight starts to break his maiden, and he was often hard in the market. He has won three of his past four now though, relishing being ridden on pace. Admittedly, he has being gifted very cosy leads in his last two wins but he has really put his rivals away at the finish. It wasn’t as if though he was falling in from the chasing pack. Back to 1500m to 1400m isn’t ideal but the scratching of Lisdoonvarna is a significant one as it should now see him get control of this race too. Blake Shinn has been on for all three of those wins and again maintains his association with the very much in form three-year-old.
Danger: Curdled was never really in the hunt at Rosehill last start while prior to that he wasn’t far away from Epidemic. He maps to sit in the first couple here and out to 1400m looks ideal third up. He’s a big improver at odds. Sweet Victory is a smart filly but the step back from the mile to 1400m looks to hurt her winning claims, especially with those on pace looking to get the favours. Intuition’s form looks horrible on paper but he is going better than it reads. Again, the race doesn’t looks to set up for him either while the same can be said for Touch Of Mink, but she capable of settling handier, especially from the inside draw.
How to play it: Gresham WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Gresham leading all the way again last start
|Race 3 - 12:35PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Radiant Choice has won two on the bounce since the blinkers were reapplied. It’s really focused this ex-Hawkes trained galloper who now finds himself in the care of Armidale-based trainer Sterling Osland. He was there to be run down at Rosehill in a Highway Handicap last start but held off the well-fancied Hemmerle pretty comfortably in the end. He stays on 60.5kg and doubt the extra 100m will be a factor, rising from 1400m to 1500m. The big plus with this three-year-old, when assessing him alongside what look to be his main dangers, is his ability to put himself on speed and make his own luck. Not only do Dia De Reyes and Valree get back but they both have a nasty habit of missing the kick.
Danger: In Valree’s defence, she did jump well (for her) at Canterbury last time out when third behind Diapson in a BM73 at Canterbury. Prior to that she beat Volpe in a Highway Handicap and Volpe has since taken the scalp of I Am Serious! She’ll run well again. Dia De Reyes slipped under the guard of punters first up winning over the sprint trip of 1200m. Hasn’t been sighted for a month since (not sure if by design?) but he jumps to 1500m which looks much more his go. Want to risk My Blue Jeans at the odds.
How to play it: Radiant Choice WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Radiant Choice leading and winning a Highway Handicap last start
|Race 4 - 1:10PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Don’t think Joe Pride could ave found a more suitable race for La Chica Bella to notch up win number four in her career. Last start she drew barrier 1 which was a disaster for her and through no fault of Kathy O’Hara she was cluttered up on the fence. She boxed on well to run third behind Princess Posh but she is much more dynamic when she is allowed to dictate. That’s mainly due to the little flat spot she tends to hit when asked to quicken. Out in front, she has room to pick herself up again. Here she is drawn 11 which will allow Rachel King to roll to the front in her own time, which really suits her style. Two back she ran second, albeit a distant one, to I Am Serious. She’s a very fit race horse now and I’m thinking this is her race to lose.
Danger: It looks easy enough to find in the form of So Splendid. The Savabeel mare got out to 2000m at the back end of last campaign but showed first up last time in that she sprints well fresh. She won at Warwick Farm over 1400m on that occasion in a BM70. She’ll be giving La Chica Bella a start but Kerrin McEvoy will give her every chance to run home over the top. Token Of Love is another that should get favours on speed while Queen Misty can home into the placings, again.
How to play it: La Chica Bella WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
La Chica Bella’s last start third when taking a sit
|Race 5 - 1:45PM WINTER RACING HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Hunter Jack is an honest campaigner and there has been nothing wrong with his two runs this time in. First up he ran third at Hawkesbury behind Up ‘N’ Rolling (with Hallelujah Boy second) while second up he found himself exposed a long way from home after originally tucking in behind the speed. He stuck on well enough on the line and drops back in grade from a BM95 there to a BM77. From barrier 2, I’d expect Jason Collett to go straight to the front and run the race to suit himself. He looks to only have Kurnel Jaxon for company, drawn inside him in barrier 1. The cut out of the track won’t hurt the eight-year-old and although it’s not often he gets deep enough into a preperation to run third up, whenever he does, he generally runs very well.
Danger: Walk The Streets should be ready now third up having spent 10 months away from the track. In her two runs back the leaders have broken away which ripped her out of her comfort zone and she was found wanting late. This should be a much more gently run race. Kerrin McEvoy sticks and she draws to get a lovely midfield trail. Vaucluse Bay has been excellent in his two runs this time in. The drier the better for him and he can settle in the first dozen from barrier 5.
How to play it: Hunter Jack EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds)
Hunter Jack’s last start eighth in tougher grade
|Race 6 - 2:25PM KENSEI HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Harper's Choice has been a long time out of the winners’ circle but on his last start effort, another victory isn’t far away. Would love to see Tye Angland bustle him out early to take up the lead as it’s from the front we’ve seen the best of him, which included a second to Jon Snow in the 2017 ATC Derby. We know he has got the stamina as that was run on a heavy track too. Let him roll and let them chase him! Last start he was tucked in behind the speed but once they bunched at the top of the straight Dagny found herself just a length behind him and she had the superior turn of foot. I’d expect that gap to be significantly wider this time with Dagny drawn out in barrier 9.
Danger: If Ashkannd wants to run along in front and bring Harper’s Choice undone, Nurse Kitchen comes right into play. Third up 2000m on a soft track is a perfect set of circumstances for her. She was an eye-catcher at Scone first up, with Punters Intel revealing she clocked her last 200m in 11.65s, before getting a little lost around Doomben last start, albeit in Group Three company. She has already tackled the Rosehill 2000m once before and ran an unlucky second in the G1 Vinery. Must respect Dagny while The Getaway won’t be lacking for fitness.
How to play it: Harpers Choice WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Will Dagny and Harper’s Choice be fighting out the finish again?
|Race 7 - 3:05PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Tougherthantherest won at Rosehill back in early May when having his first outing for Chris Waller, having formerly been trained in Canberra and he beat Special Missile. That horse, although not racing here, has an important role to play in tying all of this form together with Sir Bacchus, New Universe and Invinzabeel running the trifecta last time out, where Special Missile was fourth. There is not a lot between these four stablemates so the double figure odds appeal for Tougherthantherest. Depending on how aggressively they ride Flow from the wide draw, could even see Tougherthantherest holding the fence to lead. Be very forgiving of his two Queensland flops where he raced wide without cover.
Danger: New Universe might have finally found his calling last start. He’s a 1400m horse after all. He has been up for a very long time but it’s been an equally long time since he has found a track with the sting out. Can you take $4.60 though? Flow is very well found in the market but there is no denying he finds a winnable race first up here off the back of two lovely trials. Fresh last time in he also tackled 1400m and went down narrowly to Redouble with a sizeable gap back to third. The Street Cry four-year-old also handles all surfaces.
How to play it: Tougherthantherest WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Flow ($3.10)
Best judge Tougherthantherest on this effort
|Race 8 - 3:45PM HALF YEARLY MEMBERSHIP SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Best Guess is an underrated galloper. The four-year-old has won four from 10 and when resuming last time in, ran second to Group-winning mare White Moss at Canterbury. Two back at Rosehill he bolted in, having dictatced from the front. He won't get the opportunity here with a stack of speed engaged in the race but it'll give Kerrin McEvoy the chance to slot in behind them and get the last crack. He has looked great in his two trials and McEvoy sticks here having ridden him in both of them. He has raced over the 1100m on six occasions for two wins and three placings and although he has proved that he doesn't fancy heavy tracks he is undefeated in two outings on soft ground.
Danger: Albumin was a dominant winner last start, with Punters Intel revealing he ran 33s flat his last 600m, and should stalk the leaders with no weight on his back. He wasn't going to run if the track was worse than a Soft 6 but that won't be an issue now. There's still an obvious case to be made that he is much more comfortable on firm decks though. Hard to beat but short enough in the market. Clear The Beach trialled alongside His Majesty (scratched here) at Newcastle recently and went well. He is first up off 42 weeks but won off a 29 week break first up last time in. Nictock next best. His winning chances increase with any track upgrades.
How to play it: Best Guess WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
His Majesty’s latest trial win at Newcastle – May 23
|Race 9 - 4:25PM SYDNEY'S WEST APP HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Have to take a bit of a deep breath with this one given his strike rate but Manolo Blahniq finds himself in an extremely winnable race here. He has won two from 19 and won of those was when he was trained in NZ as a two-year-old but I saw enough in his first up run behind Albumin that makes him hard to beat here for Tony Noonan. He was heavily backed there at Rosehill but ultimately found the 1100m too sharp. He was only three lengths away at the finish though, doing his best work late. Out to 1300m and in an easier race than last time, you’re getting better odds. Now take another deep breath and snap up the $4.80 with TAB Fixed Odds because I suspect he’ll start shorter. Blake Shinn sticks and couldn't have picked a better draw for him. He'll be rushing home down the middle of the track.
Danger: I’ll be having two bets in the race. The other being Joe Pride’s Argent D’or. This four-year-old is another with a questionable strike rate but Punters Intel reveals he ran the fastest last 600m (33.19s) of the entire day at Rosehill Gardens last start. He ran well at Kembla prior to that over 1000m. Can only see him running well out to 1300m, on a soft track and Kerrin McEvoy steering from a cosy draw. Not overly fond of the Canterbury race The Avenger, All From Scrap and Shock Alert come out of so happy to bet around that trio. Imanui will be steaming home from last first up!
How to play it: Manolo Blahniq WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and Argent D’Or ($7.50)
Manolo Blahniq running third over 1100m first up