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ROSEHILL GARDENS - SATURDAY 2ND AUGUST

Selections by NEIL EVANS

The rail is out 4m the entire circuit with the track rated a Heavy 8. Plenty of rain fell on Wednesday/Thursday with further rain forecast today as well as Saturday and a top of 15 degrees for raceday.

BEST BET
Race 9, No.12 - YOSHINOBU ($3 favourite on TAB)

2. BARBRAY ($7.50 on TAB) can return to the winner's stall here back on a very heavy track and deep into the prep. Won two straight up to BM 64 midweek company before running home late in a similar race to this at Randwick. Was not suited in the Group 3-Winx Guineas at the Sunshine Coast. Senior jockey goes back on and the wetter the better for a gelding who relishes the mud. 5. Amusing ($2.90 favourite) swept home for a second career win here a fortnight back and gets first use of the inside. Wouldn’t be taking too short a price though going up sharply in weight. 4. Narbold ($4.20) is a stablemate of the former who was over-run by her late last start after being specked at an each-way price. Only the one win so far, but drawn well and has a sound record on rain-affected ground. 1. Balla Khaihah ($8.50) is over the odds third-up with blinkers added after closing off strongly here a fortnight ago. 3. Hopper ($8) has been disappointing since a Super Maiden win in early May but he made up plenty of late ground behind Amusing.

How to play it: Barbray each-way and box trifecta 1,2,4,5

5. COLD BREW ($4.80) is a talented and still progressing four-year-old trained on the track and shooting for three wins on the bounce heading back into Metropolitan company. Has led comfortably and won up to this trip in his last two and while obviously taking on some better ones here, loves the going and proven to be a reliable weight carrier. From a wider draw the jockey has the option of crossing over or staying off the fence. 1. Denman Star ($3.30 fav) is a tough Provincial-based wet tracker who ran home okay here a fortnight back. Drawn to get cover and the premiership-winning jockey takes over. 2. Forecaster ($7) has been in the money in three of his last four around this level and with a 3kg claim, can give a ton of cheek on the speed. 7. Convergent ($7.50) is lightly raced and a market watch reloading off an eight-week break for just his second start. 11. Pretty Tavi ($8.50) has run home well in two runs back from a spell and at big odds 3. C’mon Mate ($14) second-up are worthy trifecta and first four players.

How to play it: Cold Brew to win

2. FIRST LANDING ($7.50) is talented and still improving five-year-old building an impressive record, having not finished further back than second in his last four. Dominated in consecutive races from just off speed before ridden quieter and charging home late to finish only a length from high class sprinter Storm The Ramparts at BM 78 level. Again was strong late from midfield missing by a long neck in a Highway here a fortnight ago, and despite drawing wide, he gets a decent map a few lengths back and well off the fence. This is a shade stronger in depth but he represents the best value in the race. 5. Without Parallel ($2.50 fav) is the measuring stick in the race and likely clear favourite unbeaten from three starts. Was tough leading all the way at Eagle Farm when having her first run in 17 weeks, and gets in well at the weights after the jockey’s claim. 7. Cambar ($7) is a sparingly raced stallion with a stack of ability and resuming off two trial wins. Unbeaten on rain-affected ground and did win at his only previous Rosehill run in a Class 2 Highway when fresh. Significantly blinkers come off, so naturally a huge betting watch. 3. Martini Mumma ($9.50) has winkers on third-up off a break and goes in wider exotic plays. 1. Bengal ($17) can sneak into the money fourth-up at big odds.

How to play it: First Landing to win and box exacta 2,5,7

7. TUILERIES ($1.65 fav) is a smart and progressive mare who looks to have this on a platter second-up over a furlong further. Was beaten by the alley when fresh closing off late and with the top hoop taking over and in a field reduced in size, she can track up off the fence and pounce early in the straight. Both wins late last year quickly up to BM 72 grade came on firm tracks, but she’s bred to get through these conditions being by So You Think out of a Bernadini mare. 1. Lady Extreme ($7.50) is a strong Provincial mare who returns to the course where she won two straight up to this level earlier in the prep before doing her best work late in the Listed-Ramornie at Grafton. Loves the going being by wet track sire Extreme Choice, although rises sharply in weight to 60.5kg. Scratched from a later race to be saved for this. 11. Sister Daae ($5.50) hit the line hard second-up behind Amusing who goes around earlier in the program so the form reference may be there. Another improver bred to get through the ground. 2. Pippie Beach ($9.50) needs to find more fourth-up but heavy ground and a sharp drop back in trip three weeks between runs are plusses.

How to play it: Tuileries to win and quinella 1 & 7

1. METAPHORICALLY ($4.80) can go back-to-back stepping up from a dominant all-the-way win in BM 72 midweek company. Ran a handy last 600m split that day on a Soft 7 and the third-placed horse then scored at Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Thrives in the wet and back in at the weights after the jockey takes 2kg off. 5. Stardeel ($4.40 fav) is mixing his form and probably looking for further, but is fit and still capable of running over them late. 2. Useapin ($6) rediscovered her best here a fortnight ago surging late to claim a fillies and mares BM 78. Sparingly raced but unproven in heavy going and a query she can beat a couple of these. 11. Grand Prairie ($5) is lightly raced, drawn inside and did best to win first-up since early autumn at the midweeks.

How to play it: Metaphorically to win

3. HEADLEY GRANGE ($3.80) is a tough five-year-old with a near 40% winning strike rate and can make it three wins from his last four, especially if the main market rival comes out. Powered home to win two straight including the Listed-Civic Stakes before just behind the placegetters under a huge weight on unsuitably firm ground in the South Grafton Cup. Back on the wet, back a shade in trip and should be back in business. 8. It’s A Knockout ($2.40 fav) is a progressive and lightly raced mare gunning for a second win in three starts, but unlikely here given she was targeting today’s Coffs Harbour Cup and a spot in the Big Dance in spring. 2. Estadio Mestalla ($5) is a stablemate of the top selection and scored a big upset Listed win two starts back before a fair effort in the Listed-Winter Challenge here. Up in weight and would need the inside to hold up well if he is to trouble the top selection. 1. Welwal ($6.50) finished only midfield behind the former but four of his five career wins from 25 starts have come on rain-affected going.

How to play it: Headley Grange to win

7. PIGGYBACK ($6 on TAB) is a tough mare and well placed to claim a fifth win at only her 14th start deep into the campaign in what is only a moderate line-up for this level. Has run into the money in three consecutive outings at this level since powering home to win a midweek BM 72 on a Heavy 10. Looking for this longer trip and blinkers going on is a key gear change. 9. Juja Kibo ($2.30 favourite) capped three improving Victorian runs this prep, charging home for a dominant win in a midweek BM 70. Drops sharply in weight for this tougher test but did get the breaks and the right 'lane' last start on what is nearly always an unreliable and biased surface. Drawn to get early cover if the pattern suits. 8. Federer ($5.50) is an improving stablemate of the former who rushed home into a place here in similar company third-up and gets significant weight relief. Looks over the odds. 6. Sly Boots ($9) off a third-up midweek win and 10. Captain Maverick ($11) who has beaten all bar the winner in his last two at a lesser level should both go into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Piggyback to win

9. LIBERTY STATE ($5 equal fav) is a talented and sparingly raced mare mare who hasn’t had much go her way in the last couple at this level. Prior had shown her wet track ability at big odds surging home from near last to claim a fillies and mares BM 78. Loves this sort of going and from a draw where she can stay out of trouble with some weight relief, watch for her finishing hard in a race with several chances. 12. Just In Time ($5 eq fav) comes to the city three weeks between runs after two impressive provincial wins up to BM 64 grade, both from just off speed. In a shrewd yard and the Justify stock normally get through heavy ground. 1. Fully Lit ($6.50) is fit enough now with blinkers coming off, but a query under this weight if the ground is very chopped up. 5. Rolling Magic ($7) is honest although untried in heavy going, but if he gets through it should emerge over the odds again with winkers replacing blinkers. 7. Captain Furai ($5 eq fav) hasn’’t raced since last spring but comes to hand quickly behind two improving trials, and already a two-time heavy track winner. 10. Fiddlers Green ($8) can improve enough from a wide draw to figure in the minor money.

How to play it: Liberty State to win

12. YOSHINOBU ($3 fav) is a progressive four-year-old who can make it two straight this prep with a hefty drop in weight more than off-setting a rise in class. Did it tough from wide gates in three Listed runs back in autumn, but looks to have come back stronger surging home to win here fresh. Has won two from three on soft and heavier ground presents no hurdle. 9. Bunker Hut ($5) likes this ground and looms as the immediate threat second-up four weeks between runs. 2. The Novelist ($4.80) is a big market watch, especially if the inside is okay. Reloads via an easy Randwick trial win 35 days after dropping out in a Group 3 at Eagle Farm. Untested on heavy. 1. Run Harry Run ($9) boxed on just fairly first-up behind a smart winner at Caulfield. Blinkers off and winkers on is a key gear change, but has a task carrying this weight.

How to play it: Yoshinobu to win

3. SPYWIRE ($4.80) is an improving four-year-old bursting to win again third-up. Hit the line late to go under by a long neck fresh before running home okay into a place at this level behind Yoshinobu who rates on top in the previous race. First time on heavy, he’s but bred to handle it and gets weight relief importantly drawn to come wider in the straight late in the day. 7. Roselyn’s Star ($2.60 fav) is a promising and lightly raced four-year-old resuming as a gelding with gear changes behind two smart trial wins. Bound to come to hand sharply and the outside draw shouldn't be a setback on what will be a very heavy surface. 5. Hanau ($6) roared home to win a lesser midweek race second-up. Needs a decent tempo to chase but capable of peeling off a dominant sectional even in these conditions. 2. Epic Proportions ($13) can run a big race at even bigger odds behind a determined win in a weaker mid-week race as a hot favourite.

How to play it: Spywire to win and quinella 3 & 7

View final fields with full form & race replays for Rosehill Gardens here