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Randwick Winners - Tips For TAB Epsom Day (Saturday 4th October)

By Ray Hickson

Race 1 - 12:05PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

8. Highborn Harry is one of a few here that doesn’t seem to win out of turn but he comes into this off a handy return in a slowly run race where he wasn’t ever going to be in the finish. Thought he did a good job to be beaten under two lengths and the step up in distance is in his favour. Has a pattern to improve and finds the sort of race he can be competitive in.

Dangers: 6. Sunset Park gave a good sight in front over this trip at Rosehill then went to Canterbury and strung them out a bit before being reeled in. Possible leader here and will be around the mark again. 2. Claim The Crown went to the front in the Midway from two weeks ago and was one of a few there battling away for the minors, winding up fourth. Imagine he goes forward again and third-up can at least hold his form. 1. Harlow Mist took on what wound up being quite a good form race when she resumed at Rosehill last month, won by Cristal Clear. Back to Midway grade from an inside gate she can be competitive.

How to play it: Highborn Harry WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 2 - 12:40PM ARROWFIELD BREEDERS' PLATE (1000 METRES)

Gai & Adrian have won the past two editions of the first two-year-old race of the season and they have a strong hand. Leant to 4. I’m Ya Huckleberry who had a bit of company mid-trial before breaking away late for an easy win in handy time. While he’s drawn the outside it’s not a tough starting point and two-year-olds can be unpredictable so it may not be against him.

Dangers: 2. Eviction Notice was visually impressive winning his Kensington trial and while he won by eight lengths he only ran 0.01 faster than his stablemate. Hard to fault how he went about it and is a good chance. 7. Paradoxium had a bit to do in the first half of his trial against I’m Ya Huckleberry, loomed up to him on the turn then likely had enough late. Draws one and if he can get that first half of the race right he can close the gap. 8. Revengeance showed a lot of fight when it looked like he was going to be swallowed up to go on to win his trial. Time was a bit slower but worth respecting.

How to play it: I’m Ya Huckleberry WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 3 - 1:15PM KEENELAND GIMCRACK STAKES (1000 METRES)

The two-year-old fillies this time. Liked the way 7. Masvingo went about things in winning her trial at Kensington by a widening margin. Sat on the speed and responded well to hands and heels riding there. Interested to see what she can do if she finds some cover which looks possible. Should run well.

Dangers: 10. Shiki clocked the fastest time of the morning in winning her trial and she also did it from outside the leader. That has to count for something and she’s sure to be hard to beat. 8. Oh Yes She Did had a bit of style about her in the way she won her heat, settling off them and lengthening well when getting across heels. Imagine she’ll find her feet and look to be hitting the line hard. 5. Home Invasion did it from the front in winning her trial in just fair time. Barrier one helps her cause and she could give a good sight on speed.

How to play it: Masvingo EACH-WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 4 - 1:50PM PLUNGE RIGHT DULCIFY STAKES (1600 METRES)

1. Without Peer is head and shoulders above these on depth of form and stepping up to the mile is another tick in his favour. He did an excellent job to run into third in the Ming Dynasty, following Autumn Boy home, and there was a nice gap of a couple of lengths behind him. Plenty of time to find a good spot from a middle gate at the mile and he should take beating.

Dangers: 3. Flying Orchid comes through the same race and he’s worth forgiving, he started shorter than Without Peer and while momentarily held up didn’t hit the line quite as well. Blinkers go on him and he could bounce back quickly. 11. Next Jen elected to miss the Group 1 against the fillies to take on the boys and it’ll be interesting to see how she measures up. Shade disappointing in the Tea Rose after a handy run fresh in the Furious. Another with blinkers on, drawn well, she’s in the mix. 7. Attica was excellent scoring on debut then went around at $1.55 and found one better in a small field at Kembla Grange. A step up in class but shows promise and the blinkers are on. Each-way chance.

How to play it: Without Peer WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 5 - 2:25PM MELBOURNE STORM MILE (1600 METRES)

13. Perfumist looks back in business. She showed sharp improvement when stepping from 1200m to the mile two weeks ago, tracking the speed and going down fighting in a close four way finish. Promises to get a nice run in this large field, which will be important, and if last time is a sign she’s ready to strike then she has to be respected.

Dangers: 8. Pocketing looks to be warming up to something after two runs back. He comes back a notch after a steadily closing midfield finish in the Bill Ritchie two weeks ago. Gets to the mile now and will be competitive. 19. Idle Flyer is an up and comer who found a great spot in the run and was able to power away late scoring over 1400m second-up. Jumps from a 78 to a 94 grade, first time at a mile and the ear muffs go on so there are some queries but she could be good enough to overcome them. 20. Polymnia sat outside the leader in the same race and boxed on well to run third there. Will be fitter for it, the mile suits and if she runs well again here can be followed going forward from this race.

How to play it: Perfumist EACH-WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 6 - 3:00PM DARLEY FLIGHT STAKES (1600 METRES)

Have to side with 1. Apocalyptic who dominated many of her rivals here in the Tea Rose despite being forced to cover ground. There looks a distinct lack of speed in this race and it wouldn’t surprise if luck is taken out of it and she rolls forward. Either way, on what we saw two weeks ago she’s clearly the one to beat.

Dangers: 5. Queen Of Clubs has been crying out for the mile for some time and she gets it having run a promising fourth behind Apocalyptic with a month between runs. She was a massive drifter in that race but her effort suggests she’s on target, draws ideally to be closer and looks a threat. 4. Within The Law is another advantaged by a change of barrier position having drawn wide in the Furious and Tea Rose and run on well without threatening. She’s proven at the mile and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. 3. Tupakara looked to have every chance in the Tea Rose when a well supported favourite and found the winner too good. Back to a wide barrier so potentially different tactics and she did react well to coming from the back fresh. Has work to do but not out of it.

How to play it: Apocalyptic WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 7 - 3:35PM PRECISE AIR PREMIERE STAKES (1200 METRES)

Plenty at stake for a few heading to the TAB Everest via this race. Settled on 1. Jimmysstar to finish over the top of them now he’s reached 1200m. His fresh run in the Concorde was excellent, impossible to win from where he was but he lengthened as you’d like to see. Sat handy to win a subsequent trial and don’t mind him drawn the outside in the small field, he shouldn’t get too far off them and will be able to wind.

Dangers: This is a big race for 2. Briasa who had a nice enough run in the Shorts, hit the lead then Joliestar went straight past him. Naturally he will be fitter for the run, draws to get every chance again and not a surprise he’s a short priced favourite. 6. Private Harry no doubt was disappointing in the Shorts but he did have a couple of genuine excuses having knuckled at the start then copped a sideswipe from Briasa for good measure. He was a shot duck when they topped the rise after chasing Mazu. Jockey change, draws to track Mazu over and while he needs to bounce back he’s capable of it. 4. Mazu was runner-up in this race last year and looks the likely leader. He broke them up in the Shorts and it’ll be interesting to see if similar tactics are applied. He’ll run his usual honest race.

How to play it: Jimmysstar WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 8 - 4:10PM TAB EPSOM (1600 METRES)

4. Autumn Glow is hard to punch holes in other than this being her first attempt at Group 1 and the mile. Last time she drew wide she rolled forward to sit on the speed and it appears the option will be there for her to have a look early given she’s drawn just to the outside of one of the likely leaders. She was home on the turn in the Theo Marks and wasn’t extended, you’d be surprised if she doesn’t run out a strong mile and doubt the barrier is that much of an issue. Can’t go past her.

Dangers: 1. Ceolwulf is the one horse in this race with genuine Group 1 form, his problem is he seems to need a solid tempo to be able to be effective. He didn’t get that when ridden closer in the 7 Stakes and fought on for third. Won this race from a wide gate booming home down the middle last year and he’d be her major threat. 2. Pericles has plenty of favours from a map perspective as he looks to land in a stalking spot without doing much work. He was very well ridden when winning the Tramway and he ran well in the Doncaster in the autumn from on speed. Definite chance. 5. Pier has a 3kg turnaround on Autumn Glow from the Theor Marks when he hit the line nicely from off midfield into third. He’ll relish the mile and if he gets the right run can be in the finish.

How to play it: Autumn Glow WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 9 - 4:45PM ASAHI SUPER DRY METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)

10. Etna Rosso has been playing catch up this spring with wet tracks hampering his prep but he showed second-up in the Kingston Town he’s pretty well on target with a fast finishing third. Found himself well off the speed there but up in distance and from a soft draw you’d be surprised if he’s not in that first half dozen or so, he runs out the trip strongly and is a good each-way chance.

Dangers: 2. Arapaho was as brave as they come when chasing the hot speed in the Kingston Town and having the guts to stick on and run fourth as Etna Rosso just got past him late. He’s a marvel and with a bit of a breather this time around you’d be wary not to leave him out of the numbers. 16. Flying Bandit is a lightly raced emerging stayer with a good record. Won the Wagga Cup earlier this year and he’s on the back up after warming up when the race was all over at 1900m last week at Rosehill. Plummets in weight, draws well and he’ll be running on. 9. Soul Of Spain is another on the way up and he’s come through the grades quickly with four straight wins including the Newcastle Cup as a short priced favourite. It’s been 13 years since that Cup winner has won a Metrop but he’ll get his chance down in the weights.

How to play it: Etna Rosso EACH-WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds).

Race 10 - 5:25PM KIA BRISBANE BRONCOS SPRINT (1200 METRES)

5. Disneck gets a handy drop in weight after a sound third here two weeks ago, while he was favourite he was only beaten half a length. Don’t mind drawing out a little as he often runs pretty quick sectionals when able to wind up so he'll have the chance to do just that.

Dangers:10. Kerguelen is better known as a wet tracker but proved he’s adept on top of the ground with a luckless third in the Fire Star race after blowing the start and being held up on the turn. He’ll be around the mark again. 9. Getafix and 8. Raikkonen are promising horses resuming and both have trialled twice, thought Getafix trialled a bit better. They’re both capable of a big run fresh and support for either would be worth noting.

How to play it: Disneck EACH-WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds).

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Epsom meeting at Randwick

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