Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Royal Randwick is rated a Heavy 8 as of Friday afternoon and with fine weather forecast, it should get into the soft range. The rail is out 9m with the first set to jump at 11:35am local time.
|Race 1 - 11:35AM #THERACES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Marmaris was beaten a length by Dio D’Oro first up over the Randwick 1200m, which he runs over again here. Punters Intel reveals his 12.19s was the fastest last 200m in the race. That looks a superior form race to that of any of his rivals and he can only strip fitter from the outing. A couple of other runners hard in the market come off country wins while the query with Thinkin’ Big is staying over the sprint trip. Back to Marmaris, last preparation he ran a narrow second to Sandbar at Canterbury one day despite making a mid-race move. He then went on to break his maiden in emphatic style, having dictated from the front. Tye Angland rode him that day and he is back aboard here after Glyn Schofield rode him first up. If Tye rides him with that same intent here, would be surprised if they beat him.
Danger: Mizzy surprised most on debut giving a big sight at odds only to be nabbed late by Jen Rules, a filly the Snowden camp rate quite highly. Drawn the inside, the Zoustar filly will be able to punch up and hold a spot. She missed the start a touch on debut but was able to drive through on the fence. The way she worked through the line there suggests the 1200m will suit now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kashiwa in the money. He fluffed the start on debut so forget that before being beaten 6.6L by spring bound filly Smart Melody.
How to play it: Marmaris WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Marmaris running second to Dio D’Oro
|Race 2 - 12:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Roman Typhoon hasn’t had a great deal go right for him in his career to date. That trend continued at Scone first up when he raced in restricted room to finish fourth behind The Big Vin. A skim over his form last campaign certainly doesn’t do him justice. First up he was posted wide at Gosford, second up he nearly went over the inside fence at Randwick before he lined up against Siege Of Quebec at Rosehill. There were no excuses in that latter run but 4.3L off a Group-placed colt is reasonable form for a Highway Handicap! The fact he was thrown into that race suggests Jan Bowen has a good opinion of this three-year-old. Drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 1, let’s just hope he finally gets the chance to prove it.
Danger: Danny Williams hasn’t hid his opinion of Highway Sixtysix. It’s probably because of that she has opened up favourite. The last time we saw her she really ran along in a Highway only to be collared late by stablemate Tiger By The Tale. It was a brave effort to finish as close as she did. No public trials but you can be sure Williams has her ready to go. Yet another three-year-old, Nicconita never got close to Two ‘n’ Wellgo last start but the track was blamed for dulling her best asset, her sprint. The drying track certainly gives her the opportunity to bounce back.
How to play it: Roman Typhoon WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Roman Typhoon first up Scone
|Race 3 - 12:45PM RANDWICK MAYOR'S CUP (1100 METRES)|
Revenire hasn’t looked at all comfortable on heavy tracks in his last two outings yet has still managed to finish on the heels of the winners. He’ll need to turn the tables on You Make Me Smile but a 2kg weight swing, and even more significantly, the likelihood of a soft track and the drop back to 1100m, I’m confident he can. Punters Intel reveal that their final 600m splits were almost identical. Revenire was forced to race outside of the lead last start, having drawn wide, but here he’ll get a lovely trail and be produced late. Expect his turn of foot to be much more dynamic. He will have to lump 60.5kg but the Lonhro colt has carried weight for much of his career.
Danger: All that said about You Make Me Smile, I am still a little surprised he is double figure odds on the back of a strong Randwick win last start. He overraced but still kept finding under hard riding to hold off the chasing pack. Pressure from Bombarding and Sparky Star, with Brenton Avdulla punching up from barrier 1, ensures he won’t be able to dictate here but the option of a sit might help him settle. Just wonder if the son of So You Think is looking for 1400m now. Bombarding and Envy Of All are last start winners but the knock on them as the race favourites, is those wins were at Wyong and Ipswich.
How to play it: Revenire WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
There was little between Revenire and You Make Me Smile last start
|Race 4 - 1:20PM HALF YEARLY MEMBERSHIP MILE (1600 METRES)|
Like the way Touch Of Mink was working into her race last start, suggesting that the mile is perfect now. Two back she ran down the heavily-backed Vontaine at Randwick. It also wasn’t that long ago she ran seventh in the G1 Surround beaten just 2.5L by the Everest-bound Shoals. That was again at Randwick. Last start she drifted a long way back from the inside draw but having drawn 1 again, this time expect her to be within striking distance of the leaders turning for home. Wouldn’t be surprised if she landed third the fence in the small field. The Matthew Smith-trained filly has tackled the mile on three occasions for a G2 third at Moonee Valley, a maiden win at Kembla from last (after bombing the start) while the Kembla Classic was a complete forget after she missed the kick there too. Rest assured she is over that bad habit now!
Danger: La Chica Bella can bounce back from last week’s average effort at Rosehill. She looks better suited back to the mile and finds a race where she should be able to dictate. It’s under those circumstances she does her best work. Wide Spread Panic will be there with her but doubt we’ll see her attacking La Chica Bella. On the topic of Wide Spread Panic, can’t have her as the early favourite coming off a Wyong defeat, albeit with excuses. Forget Medaille ever ran last start. She doesn’t go a yard on heavy ground. Soft is fine. Sepoy Acheva looks to be building towards another win but can prove a tease.
How to play it: Touch Of Mink WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Touch Of Mink last start
|Race 5 - 1:55PM WINTER RACING HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
Nahuel is a stayer on the rise for Richard Freedman and the French import certainly deserves his crack in town after stringing two together in provincial company. The latest of those was at Newcastle over 2340m which will give him a good ground for this. He only won by a length but did give the second horse 7kg. The runner up there Diamond Star Halo lines up here too but there is a 6.5kg swing. The wide draw poses some query but it might force Andre Adkin’s hand into riding with intent early, which can only be a good thing given the danger Plymouth Road is the likely leader. Nahuel won’t want to give him too much of a start.
Danger: Plymouth Road never gave his rivals a look in at Randwick last start running away from Only Tiger at the finish. Adam Hyeronimus, who rode the horse there, will know he is on a very fit stayer and will be keen to grind his rivals into the ground again. The son of Tavistock is starting to climb up in the weights but not overly concerned given he is a momentum horse. Hand It In didn’t see out the two miles in the Stayer’s Cup. He can bounce back while Ombudsman could relish the extra journey.
How to play it: Nahuel WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Nahuel winning at Newcastle last start
|Race 6 - 2:30PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
There is a real sense of timing about Seahampton here third up out to 1400m. She was flat out disappointing first up but what we learned there is that she doesn’t like heavy tracks. She improved sharply when she got onto a soft track at Canterbury and can probably count herself a touch unlucky not to have won, after being pocketed at the top of the straight. Punters Intel reveals she was 1.5L superior to anything else in the race over the final 200m split. I suspect you’d see her announce herself as a filly to follow if she found a dry track, which of course she won’t get on Saturday, but expect her to still be in the finish on an improving track. She’ll give them a start but be rattling home. Go back and watch her Newcastle maiden win. She beat nothing but did it in the manner of a smart filly.
Danger: Island Missile clocked the fastest last 200m of the day (12s flat) at Randwick a fortnight ago when resuming. This Smart Missile three-year-old ticked the wet track box on that occasion too. He’ll be back with Seahampton in the run but given the way he returned, and knowing he has been stakes placed in the past, he’s in for a lucrative winter. He might even string a few together and that could very well start here. Thought Mr Haussmann did more than enough on his Aussie debut. Chris Waller has him pegged as a miler but he’ll take plenty of benefit from that first up showing. He can win this.
How to play it: Seahampton WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Seahampton at Canterbury last time out
|Race 7 - 3:10PM WALLABY CUP (1800 METRES)|
Don’t let the narrow margin of Karavali’s last start win put you off. There was more to it than meets the eye. The leader Special Missile stacked them up and turned it into a sprint home. This mare produced a really strong last 600m, and she had to given she settled last, to grab fellow leader Dark Eyes right on the post. Punters Intel reveals her last 600m (35.05s) was 3L superior to anything else in the field). Her last 200m split (12.04s) was only just outside of the fastest for the entire day. Now here are the real kickers – she is three from four at Randwick and three of her five career wins have been on wet tracks. She already has a Group Two on the CV so it’s she deserves her weight. Want to be on at the price.
Danger: Expect Carzoff to run a big race here first-up over 1800m. He is a horse that runs particularly well fresh, given what we’ve seen of him in Australia to date. He’ll be smothered up from the good draw and produced late. That’s a perfect set up for him. Thought he showed more than enough in his two trials, where he wasn’t asked to do a great deal. He is short enough in the market but certainly inclined to keep him safe. Chris Waller has stacked this race with Dagny, Chatelard and Vaucluse Bay also hard in the market. Dagny looks the most likely of those, coming back to what looks a more suitable 1800m trip.
How to play it: Karavali WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
There was more to Karavali's last start win than meets the eye!@BradJGray puts the @Leesracing-trained mare under the Punters Intel Spotlight ahead of @royalrandwick on Saturday. @SkyRacingAU pic.twitter.com/YseSx4jO5O
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 5, 2018
|Race 8 - 3:50PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Now is the time to cash in on Redouble, punters. The four-year-old has returned in particularly good order this time in. Punters Intel reveals that first up he ran the fastest 600m split of the entire day (34.20s) before last week he found a couple too sharp when staying at 1100m. He is on the quick back up here over 1300m which is perfect third up. Don’t expect to see him out the back this time either as he has shown in the past when he gets out to his right trips, he can settle much closer. He won two races for Bjorn Baker last campaign, both without blinkers so don’t fall into the trap of waiting for them to come back on, and beat Flow and Dreamforce on those occasions. They have both gone on to prove themselves in better races. Expect Redouble to do the same in time but first back him here on the way through.
Danger: Don’t let Handfast slip under your guard at the big odds. He has been racing much better than his finishing positions suggest. Mind you, three fourths from four runs this time in isn’t too bad. In the latest of those he ran on behind I Thought So and Jungle Edge in the Winter Dash. That’s a strong form race for this. He was heavily backed that day too. Put simply, this is the most suitable race he has found all campaign. Wary of Best Guess bouncing back. He pulled up slightly lame after disappointing first up. Big watch on the import Invictus Prince on the back of two outstanding trials. Just didn’t think he’d be so well found.
How to play it: Redouble WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) and something EACH WAY Handfast ($23)
Redouble is on the back up from last week
|Race 9 - 4:30PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB SPRINT (1000 METRES)|
Going to the well again with She Knows. TAB are dangling the carrot there again for punters. I expected her to go up much shorter than the $4.60 first posted on Wednesday. That’s been snipped but $4.20 still looks a great price. She was a dominant winner over the Randwick 1000m last start and faces many of the same rivals here. She only rises 1kg from that and although the likes of Noble Joey and Bandipur will strip fitter given they were first up there they’ll need to improve significantly to turn around the margin. Danny Williams has done a brilliant job keeping this filly in work for so long and although she has been up for a while, there is no reason to think her form will start tapering off now. There looks good speed up front for her to tuck in behind and get the last crack at them.
Danger: In Bandipur’s defence, he was never really on the track there first up. He did only battle to the line though. Drawn wide, expect him to be giving a start away again, albeit in a race where there looks to be plenty of speed. Noble Joey stayed on well first up with the wet track seeing him return to form. It’s just a question of how much pressure he’ll be able to absorb and where he gets to from the wide draw. Rebel Miss will knock off a race like this sooner or later but I don’t want to be taking $6 about her chances in this.
How to play it: She Knows WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
She Knows blitzing her rivals last start