Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for All Aged Stakes at Royal Randwick. There are winners to be found for nine races.
|Race 1 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
War Hero brings superior form into the race having run third in a Gosford Guineas behind Tribal Wisdom and I Thought So. He was gelded before this campaign and the results were instant with a dominant Class 1 victory at Scone. He lumps the top weight of 59kg but has won with weight before (he won his maiden with 59.5kg) and only gives a kilo to his main danger in Mercurial Lad. He was a very expensive yearling at $1.6m being from one of the first Sepoy crops. He has a long way to go until he makes that back but tipping another $33,300 jumps in the kick after this Highway Handicap.
Danger: Mercurial Lad has an abundance of raw ability but he still has no idea what he is doing. Well named! He ran off the track at Goulburn last start but still prevailed by a comfortable margin. He can’t afford to do that as he steps up in grade.
How to play it: War Hero WIN
War Hero’s placing in the Gosford Guineas
|Race 2 - 12:40PM IGA LIQUOR HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Nudie Rudie flies fresh (4:3-0-1 first-up) and like the way she maps for her return with Sweet Serendipity, Yuma Desert (providing she jumps clean) and Il Mio Destino vying for the lead. Tommy Berry should be able to tuck in behind and chime in at exactly the right time. Think she’s much more dynamic when ridden like that as opposed to being left a sitting shot on top of the speed. Don’t think she loves the wet but she gets through it well enough to still figure in the finish here.
Danger: Wary of the blinkers going on Almighty Girl for Joe Pride. She didn’t let down on the Heavy 10 at Rosehill last time out. It’ll be drier this start and she should be able to display her turn of foot. Really keen to see Believe return after a lay-off but just watch he go around first-up.
How to play it: Nudie Rudie WIN
Nudie Rudie winning first-up last preparation
|Race 3 - 1:15PM MOSTYN COPPER GROUP FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000 METRES)|
Acatour was dominant winning the Carbine Club last start and although he is untried out to 2000m, he gives every impression that he’ll get the trip. Forget his Randwick Guineas flop the start prior as he didn’t go a yard in the sloppy conditions. It was still a heavy track last start but not nearly as wet. He should get a similar run to the Carbine for Blake Shinn and outside of the wildcard runner Mongolian Wolf, there’s not a great deal of depth to the race. He only has to hold his form to win again.
Danger: Ex-Kiwi stayer Mongolian Wolf finds himself in the care of Darren Weir. It’d be hard to improve a Baker/Forsman horse at the moment though! This son of Pluck won his first two starts as a gelding this campaign before running Gingernuts to 1.8L in the Avondale Guineas. He failed in the NZ Derby out to 2400m so back to 2000m here can only be a positive.
How to play it: Acatour WIN
Acatour’s impressive Carbine win
|Race 4 - 1:50PM TAB HALL MARK STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Counterattack has been plying his trade in Melbourne and the good tracks haven’t been to his liking. He was awful in the Newmarket but he is so much better than that. He has since trialled and went nicely. His record on wet ground (soft and heavy) is 5:2-1-2 and Hugh Bowman takes the steer. He should be able to position three back the fence and with Redzel humming along out in front, the gaps will start appearing at the top of the straight. Chris Waller has always maintained his faith in this horse and so should the punters. This is the most suitable race he has tackled in a long time.
Danger: The petrol light will be flashing for Redzel over the last 50m but he is rock-hard fit and makes his own luck. There’s still every chance he pinches this. Kerrin McEvoy is a terrific judge of speed too. Hellbent and Takedown both deserve respect.
How to play it: Counterattack WIN
The last time Counterattack raced on a wet track
|Race 5 - 2:25PM SHARP JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION PLATE (2000 METRES)|
Astronomos gets everything tailor-made here in the JRA. He is undefeated in three runs over the Randwick 2000m and loves the wet. He is 7:5-1-0 on soft and heavy ground with the placing last start in the Neville Sellwood behind Assign. The miss, if you’re curious, was a fourth over an unsuitable 1400m. Preferment up the top has really compressed the weights so he gets in just half a kilo over the minimum. It’s hard to make a case against him.
Danger: Green Sweet has hit the ground running since being imported from France. He was terrific on his Aussie debut when a narrow second before taking out the Albury Cup. Reckon he can only improve further too. New Tipperary is a really gutsy animal but the wet tracks haven’t been to his liking. Strikes another win here. Otherwise, 2000m and fourth-up is perfect.
How to play it: Astronomos WIN
Last start second from Astronomos
|Race 6 - 3:05PM MOET & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600 METRES)|
Whispered Secret shaped like she would relish the mile of the Fernhill and she did exactly that. Despite the wide run throughout she pulled away from her rivals to record a strong win. Very few runners in this field are yet to tick the mile box either. She still has huge upside too. James Cummings of course won this race last start with the same preparation for Prized Icon who backed up into the Champagne after winning the Fernhill. The lack of speed on paper is some concern for her but she’ll be ripping home down the middle of the track late.
Danger: Invader hasn’t done a whole lot wrong in his six start career and was a solid winner of the Sires’ last start. Of the last 20 Sires’ winner to contest the Champagne 11 have won the double. He’s most certainly in the right camp with the Snowdens too. Does he deserve to be odds-on though? Don’t discount The Mission from giving a huge sight controlling the tempo.
How to play it: Whispered Secret WIN
Whispered Secret’s Fernhill win
|Race 7 - 3:45PM SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400 METRES)|
It’s scary how similar English’s preparation has been to her 2016 autumn campaign. And we know what happened at her fourth run in the All Aged Stakes. She is back to defend her title and returns in the same vein of form having run second (somehow!) to the grey flash Chautauqua in the TJ Smith. The track is forecasted to stay in the heavy range but it will be closer to soft, which suits her. She possesses a brilliant turn of foot and like the way the race sets up with her stalking the leaders Jungle Edge and Le Romain.
Danger: Forget Le Romain ever ran in the Doncaster Mile. He’s a bulldog and loves a scrap so losing sight of the bunny after being shuffled back in the run turned the race into a non-event for him. Taking a line through Chautauqua, who he narrowly beat in the Canterbury Stakes, there isn’t much between himself and English. Just think Jungle Edge carving along gives English the race shape edge.
How to play it: English WIN
English’s last start second in the TJ
|Race 8 - 4:25PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS J H B CARR STAKES (1400 METRES)|
Most of the key chances come out of the PJ Bell. However, given it was an advantage to be close to the fence, it’s a difficult task making much sense of the race going forward. Diddums, Prompt Response and Smart Amelia ran the trifecta and all benefited from being in the right spot. The run of Invincibella had plenty of merit hitting the line out wide. She’ll strip fitter and the 1400m is perfect second-up. There’s a win in her this campaign.
Danger: Can make a case for most runner. Raiment was brilliant winning first-up before being in the wrong spot in the PJ Bell. He was still entitled to finish a touch harder but perhaps that first-up win took it out of her. Expect her to carve across from the wide gate. The 1400m shouldn’t pose a problem either. Prompt Response is worth consideration too. She was just half a run short first-up.
How to play it: Invincibella WIN
PJ Bell is a key form reference – watch Invincibella
|Race 9 - 5:05PM THE HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB TROPHY (1400 METRES)|
Have a theory that Duca Valentinois is a fresh horse. Would love to see him tackle the mile first-up but the soft draw here gives him the chance to be in the money over 1400m. His trials have been very good and John O’Shea said throughout the week that his work has been brilliant. Nicely in with 53.5kg on his back. Expect the Waterhouse and Bott pair Fabrizio and Sort After to ensure the race is run at a steady enough clip to give all runners their chance.
Danger: Fabrizio is the class runner hence the 61kg impost but suspect he’ll be very vulnerable late given his running style. Marenostro will improve plenty from his first-up outing which is encouraging given how well he went. Maurus has trialled exceptionally well but will find the 1400m too sharp. Follow him from here though.
How to play it: Duca Valentinois WIN
Latest trial from Duca Valentinois – March 31