Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for TEN races!
The rail is in the True with the track expected to be rated in the heavy range on Saturday. The first jumps at 12:30pm.
|Race 1 - 12:30PM HARROLDS VICTORY VEIN PLATE (1000 METRES)|
Like the way 2. Disruptor has gone about his business in his three trials. The son of Dissident still has a bit to learn but every time the jockey asked for a response in those trials, he let down quickly. We know he has a turn of foot. From barrier 1, Ben Melham will be able to come out in neutral and let the colt settle where he is happy. In his second trial we wanted to hang out so the inside draw should negate that little potential knock, allowing him to follow the rail. In his latest trial he ate up late ground on a heavy track behind 7. Zoushack who he meets here. Gary Portelli puts the polish on this debutant with the She Will Reign band back together – Portelli, Melham and Darby Racing.
Danger: 8. Deviate is one of only two runners here with a run under their belt. This Brett Thompson-trained filly got a bit tight for room at the top of the straight in the Gimcrack but knuckled down to the task when she was clear to run fifth behind Catch Me. That race experience edge is a significant one. She wasn’t a cheapie either, costing $200,000 being a half to Adamina. 9. Anaheed, for the Snowdens, has looked professional in her trials while 4. Speedycom scooted away to win his Randwick trial from the front for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.
How to play it: Disruptor WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Disruptor running on behind Zoushack in a recent trial - Oct 8
|Race 2 - 1:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
16. Lips ‘N’ Lashes looks big odds here off the back of a strong run in city metro company last time out. The Brett Cavanough-trained mare sat outside of a hot speed at Warwick Farm only for Diety to charge down the outside. The five-year-old boxed away to finish only 2.4L from the winner, running fourth but beating home Voila, a filly that has won a midweeker herself since for Chris Waller. Her form prior to that was rock solid too, winning well at Scone two back. She has only had eight starts but has handled soft tracks on two occasions, suggesting she’ll handle a Randwick heavy. She is a mare that makes her own luck, carries just 53kg here and has Rachel King in the saddle, an excellent judge of pace. Will be hard to run down!
Danger: 10. Majestic Pedrille beat Lips ‘N’ Lashes by a space two runs back, on a soft track. The Lonhro mare did get the drop on her in the run but roared away at the finish. She is right in the mix and again, looks big odds. Matt Dunn is well represented in the day’s Highway with 2. Mediterranean working his way towards anther win. When trained by the Snowdens he ran second in a Listed Rosebud behind Thronum as $1.80 favourite on a Heavy 10 at Randwick. Blinkers go on for the first time too. Stablemate 3. Saxton Rock is not without a hope either. Throw 5. Arugula into any multiples.
How to play it: Lips ‘N’ Lashes WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) and Mediterranean WIN ($7)
Lips ‘N’ Lashes at Warwick Farm last start
|Race 3 - 1:40PM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400 METRES)|
Tried to find something to beat this 1. Cristobal but kept coming back to her. It’ll be no easy task with 59kg but in her favour she draws barrier 2, has the blinkers on for the first time and has Hugh Bowman steering. The Godolphin filly looked half a run short second up behind Gem Song at Rosehill but no excuses now third up. Punters Intel reveals she ran the fastest splits from the 1000m all the way to the 200m before peaking late, having made a wide, sustained run. She was Group Three-placed behind Sunlight as a two-year-old and beat Miss Fabulass on debut on a soft track. The impost is certainly a leveller but with everything else in her favour, it still looks her race to lose.
Danger: 5. Bubbles’n’troubles was last sighted at Moonee Valley where she ran a luckless eighth. Forget she ever ran. The start prior she was a shade disappointing at the midweeks, sitting outside the leader at Canterbury before being nailed on the line. She was entitled to win. However, her two wet track runs, which were her first two starts, were very good. That has her back in the mix here from the cosy draw. 2. Madam Rouge has the talent and is suited back to her own sex. She has pulled up lame in her last two runs so be forgiving. 7. I Like It Easy will run better than her odds suggest, rolling along in front.
How to play it: Cristobal WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Cristobal chasing home Gem Song last start
|Race 4 - 2:15PM THE STAR MILE (1600 METRES)|
10. Goodfella is the bombproof option in this race. There is no denying how fit he is, deep into a campaign. To flip that on it’s head, perhaps the only niggling query is that he’ll be over the top. Happy to back Bjorn Baker’s judgement that the horse has bounced out of his Epsom run in good order though. The four-year-old went back from a wide draw in that ambitious Group One assignment and never figured. He was hardly disgraced though. Imagine he’ll revert back to rolling forward this time, a tactic which had seen him finish in the money in his prior four starts. 2. Stampede and 13. All Too Huiying will likely take up the running with Goodfella slotting in behind. The son of Snitzel is two from two on wet ground so that’s another tick.
Danger: Wary of Japanese import 3. Danon Liberty here. Cast your minds back to when he first arrived in Australia and he was being spruiked as the horse to beat in the Stradbroke. Nothing has gone right for him in his three starts here, pulling up lame twice and racing in restricted room the other outing. The wet track might be what sparks him back into form and Ryan Moore rides. 9. Kaonic only whacked away to the line in the Cameron last start but the wet will help him here and he beat Goodfella comfortably back in August.
How to play it: Goodfella WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Goodfella's Epsom run last start
|Race 5 - 2:50PM THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200 METRES)|
The more rain that falls the keener I get on 6. Don’t Give A Damn. Danny Williams has had a few hiccups along the way with this horse but he is a very smart galloper when he’s right. He flies fresh so like the set up here with the month between runs, back from 1400m which ensures a good fitness base. That was where he ran 6th but he had 64kg on a heavy track and was posted wide the trip. It was a big effort under the circumstances. Prior to that he towelled up Trekking at Rosehill. 5. Victorem did beat him in the Country Championships final when they met back in April but Williams was chasing his tail with the horse all preparation trying to patch him up and he was on the back up. That wasn’t the real Don’t Give A Damn.
Danger: There is no two ways about it, Victorem is still the danger. The wet track just blunts his main weapon, which is his sprint. He has won on a heavy track but it was a Kempsey 2YO Handicap so not sure how much we can take out of that. The four-year-old is a serious talent winning five from seven, and those two defeats come with excuses. One of those defeats was the last time we saw him where the barrier beat him in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas behind Sambro. His trials have been outstanding leading into this, but always are generally. Stablemate 12. Awesome Pluck was only a length away from Victorem at Port Macquarie. The wet is no problem, more so what is in between his ears! The talent is in there though. 1. The Monstar will be somewhere in the finish.
How to play it: Don’t Give A Damn WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Don't Give A Damn's thumping first up win
|Race 6 - 3:30PM CAMERA HOUSE SYDNEY STAKES (1200 METRES)|
9. Tactical Advantage has been flying for his new stable. Under the care of Kris Lees he has won three of his four starts and the loss was a narrow one at the hands of Trekking, who he gave a whopping 7kg. This is a sharp rise in grade for the horse but he has always given the impression he was a Group class sprinter and the Sydney Stakes has been on the radar for him for a while now. Can see this race panning out nicely for him from barrier 1, with Brenton Avdulla pinching runs on the fence before presenting in the straight. Veteran mudlark 3. Jungle Edge rolling along should break the field up for him. Tactical Advantage handles the wet, travels so sweetly in the run and has a turn of foot to match anything in the race.
Danger: 5. Pierata didn’t really fire a shot in the Epsom Handicap over the mile, so here he is over 1200m with the blinkers back on. It has only been a two week turnaround from that race so the question will be if he is sharp enough. His class is not a doubt. The draw doesn’t do him any favours as suspect it forces Tommy Berry’s hand to go back. 1. Clearly Innocent went around in The TAB Everest last year but hasn’t done a great deal since then. He was disappointing last campaign, especially in the George Ryder when he finally got another wet track. He is a very talented horse at his best though. The wet track could also see 8.Burning Passion run a cheeky race here first up.
How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
"This is a sharp rise in grade but he has always promised to be a Group-class sprinter."@BradJGray has rolled out his best bet for @royalrandwick tomorrow! @tabcomau @Leesracing pic.twitter.com/LJ0295uDRD
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 11, 2018
|Race 7 - 4:15PM THE TAB EVEREST (1200 METRES)|
What a race this promises to be! Chances aplenty but I’m siding with 9. In Her Time in The TAB Everest. This mare was outstanding first up in the Premiere Stakes which looks the right form reference. She’ll have to turn the tables on 2. Santa Ana Lane and 10. Shoals but that duo had a run already under their belt. That told at the finish with In Her Time peaking on her run late. Punters Intel reveals In Her Time clocked 32.95s her last 600m, about 2.5L inferior to Shoals. Much of that came in the last 200m. Her closing split was 11.22s, with Shoals ripping home in a blistering 10.96s. They should hum along in front giving Corey Brown to settle midfield with cover. The six-year-old won the Sydney Stakes on this day last year, in quicker time than The Everest, and Brown is adamant she is going better.
Danger: I’ve steadily promoted 1. Redzel higher and higher in my selections as the week has gone on. Part of that is due to the rain but also part due to the enormous respect I have for the Snowden’s in training a horse for a grand final. The defending champ had a well-publicised set back which saw him go into the Premiere very fresh. He was only beaten two lengths and is an absolute swimmer. He’ll look the winner at the top of the straight. Enormous respect for Shoals who rocketed into contention on the back of that brilliant Premiere run. She has won on a heavy track but it was soon after upgraded to a soft surface. 3. Le Romain will be quacking in his box at the sound of more rain.
How to play it: In Her Time WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds)
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 11, 2018
|Race 8 - 4:50PM 360 DMG CRAVEN PLATE (2000 METRES)|
8. Invictus Prince looks to have slipped under the radar here as he heads into the Craven Plate, a target race of his since the beginning of his preparation. Much was made of this six-year-old’s first up run behind Winx where he savaged the line to run second beating home the likes of D’argento, Kementari and Unforgotten. His form may read a little flat since then but the horse has simply been desperate for 2000m. He stayed at 1400m second up and ran midfield in the Epsom last start, but did his best work across the line. The speed with be on here 15. Mandylion, 5. Classic Uniform and 6. Arbeitsam rolling along, setting it up for him to rattle home over the top. Has run second on a heavy track overseas.
Danger: 12. Egg Tart wasn’t suited by the pressure being poured on midrace in the Hill Stakes last start. It turned it into a staying contest which played into the hands of Ace High. There will be good pressure here too but the difference is the wet track. Her wet track form is near faultless. 3. It’s Somewhat is cherry ripe now fourth up. He went to the line with Egg Tart in the Hill Stakes and won a Doncaster on a heavy track. Loved the brave last start effort of 6. Arbeistam in the Epsom but as mentioned above, could have a few rivals eye-balling him.
How to play it: Invictus Prince WIN ($18 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Egg Tart ($3.40)
Look at Invictus Prince across the line in the Epsom
|Race 9 - 5:35PM BISLEY WORKWEAR ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)|
5. One Foot In Heaven was deceptively good in the Hill Stakes with Punters Intel revealing he ran his last 600m in 33.79s, the quickest of the race, which included a 10.98s between the 400-200m. He has never raced beyond 2000m in Australia or struck a wet track – here is is over 2600m on a heavy 9. Perfect. The seven-year-old arrived in Australia with a big reputation, already being a dual Group Two winner and having been Group One placed, where Highland Reel was second. We'll get a chance to really see what he is made of in the St Leger and is working towards another win.
Danger: 10. Haripour has won his last three starts in Melbourne for trainer Darren Weir. The horse is flying. Weir won this race last year with Big Duke. On last year, 3. Auvray ran second in the St Leger behind Big Duke and looks to be going every bit as good this time in. He meets Patrick Erin a whopping 8kg better off for a 1.7L defeat in the Metrop. The knock is the wet track, although most of his Australian wet track form was before Richard Freedman found the key to him. 8. Sikandarabad's Metrop run was a cracker. He's in this off that.
How to play it: One Foot In Heaven WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Patrick Erin winning The Metrop last start
|Race 10 - 6:10PM CELLARBRATIONS SPRINT (1000 METRES)|
Godolphin are well represented here but 6. Esperance is the one already up and running. Hugh Bowman seemed to really click with the enigmatic sprinter last time out. Suspect the wet will be okay for him going off his debut win, albeit in an Echuca maiden on a soft track. The trick seemed to be holding him up before giving him his head as late as possible. Brook Magic coming out takes away a layer of speed, which is significant for Esperance who is dropping back to 1000m but on a heavy track it'll be a test and 7. Royal Hootenanny should generate enough tempo on her own.
Danger: Esperance is joined by stablemates 8. Beacon and 2. Revenire. The latter wasn’t far away from Brook Magic on a heavy track last preparation. He handles the wet fine but prefers dry. Both are first up so are sure to improve off the run but have trialled well. One horse that loves the wet is 3. Noble Joey. There is a question mark over exactly how well he is going but he was a brave winner back in July beating She Knows at at Randwick over 1000m on a wet track. The Brook Magic scratching should see him able to cross and sit outside of the leader.
How to play it: Esperance WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
The last time we saw Brook Magic race