By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting on the Kensington track at Randwick. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 2:00PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
All things being equal 1. Orcein should be able to post his second win this time in despite giving away weight to his three rivals. Far too good second-up then did quite a good job chasing Quackerjack on a soft 7. He’ll appreciate the firmer surface and is clearly on top.
Dangers: 3. Galway Girl is improving with racing and she led all the way to win over a mile at Newcastle a couple of weeks back. Form only fair through that win but as the likely leader here she can take some catching. 2. Ritmico posted an upset win on debut in what has been a good form race then just battled after having support on a soft track here two weeks ago. Perhaps back on top of the ground is what he needs and could be an improver. 4. Romani Girl was placed behind Ritmico then got the job done at Kembla on a heavy track. Not without a chance in the small field.
How to play it: Orcein WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Orcein chases Quackerjack home at Randwick on October 20
|Race 2 - 2:35PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Colombina goes on top in what could be a tricky race. She performed well last time in against some handy peers then broke through first-up at Warwick Farm on a heavy 10, kicking strongly along the inside in the last 150m. Convinced she’s better on a good track and three weeks between runs is ideal after a hard run. Looks the horse to beat but no good thing.
Dangers: 2. Miss Invincible clearly didn’t handle the heavy track at the Farm second-up so that run can be forgiven. Sound first-up run in a good form race and if she can find the form from her previous prep she’s right in this. 7. Saint Antonio Lad was fairly honest in his first few starts but didn’t really fire when he struck a wet track at his last two before a break. His latest trial was on a heavy track so that’s probably not a guide. Gelded this time in and one to keep an eye on. 4. Knight Arrow won well on debut then not quite up to the grade but far from disgraced at Randwick back in June. Two trials have been on heavy tracks, drawn well so watch the betting for stable confidence.
How to play it: Colombina WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Colombina wins first-up at Warwick Farm on October 10
|Race 3 – 3:10PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
3. Semper Fidelis continued her excellent form this time in with a solid win at Canterbury on Friday night. The Waller stable generally gets it right when backing them up within a week and while she’s in career best form there’s no reason she can’t double up, with a bit of luck.
Dangers: 2. Mazaz is coming along well if his first-up effort behind Girl Tuesday over this course is any indicator. He’s honest and his second-up stats don’t do him justice, he hasn’t been far off them second-up in the past and was only beaten two lengths second-up last prep. Keep in mind. 6. Rapture Miss was never really a factor on a heavy track at Randwick last time so forgive that. She’s shown promise in easier races and does have a handy turn of foot, back onto a good track she could spring an upset. 4. Miss Shanti is also on the back up after racing on Friday night, finishing a length or so off Semper Fidelis. Meets her 2.5kg better so can't be overlooked though her strike rate is getting to be a worry.
How to play it: Semper Fidelis WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Semper Fidelis wins at Canterbury on Friday night
|Race 4 – 3.50PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
6. Waruna is an up and comer who was far from disgraced despite going under as favourite at Warwick Farm three weeks ago. It was her first look at a heavy track and while beaten she tried very hard after being headed and was coming again on the line, clocking the fastest last 200m of he race in 12.48 (Punters Intel). Based on that the extra trip and firmer track will suit and she has a big chance to atone.
Dangers: 5. Gretzky can find one or two better as he did when chasing home Sky Boy over this course two weeks ago. He had his chance there but from a good gate he’ll land somewhere on the speed and will likely be in the finish somewhere. 2. Nicochet is fitter for two runs back and ran on without threatening in the same race behind Sky Boy. The 2kg claim for the leading apprentice is a big plus and he could threaten. 4. Sausalito should be just about at his peak after three runs back and was beaten by a handy one at Wyong last time out. Has placed at this trip once in two attempts and is worth including in the chances.
How to play it: Waruna WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Waruna finishes a game third at Warwick Farm on October 10
|Race 5 – 4.30PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Just Got Lucky is a good each-way chance in a race that is definitely up for grabs. He’s definitely a good track horse and he trialled well at Warwick Farm a month ago without his blinkers on. He has them on for race day. Not emphasising his fresh record at last prep he came off an 11 month break before running well in town second-up. Expect him to run well.
Dangers: 6. Time Out Of Mind found the 900m too short when resuming at Newcastle but he hit the line well under 60kg and wasn’t pushed right out in the last bit once he was a clear fifth and a couple of the top four. His chances will be dictated by the speed in the race but he’s also an each-way hope. 9. Navy is an interesting runner who was a fair fourth in a Class 1 at Doomben last start and has a Sunshine Coast maiden as his lone win. On the other side the stable’s Sydney raids have been rather successful of late so he can’t be ruled out. 10. Mad Fox is possibly better with some give in the track and over a little more ground but he has a soft gate and Brenton Avdulla so he could find himself running into the placings at least.
How to play it: Just Got Lucky E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Just Got Lucky’s trial at Warwick Farm on September 24
|Race 6 - 5:10PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
3. Bravissimo has the chance to spring out and take control having finally drawn an inside alley. She gave a good sight behind Mahalangur two starts back then wasn’t able to lead but stuck on well behind Chapelco, both in decent form races. She can find one better at times but if ridden with purpose has a good chance.
Dangers: 5. Regent contested the same race as Bravissimo second-up and hit the line nicely from last into third. Probably drifts back again but fitter and if he can improve off that effort he’s right in the finish of this too. 6. Sweet Deal wasn’t up to Group company last prep but her efforts in restricted grade were sound and she’s worth keeping safe. Latest trial was a quiet one on a heavy track. 10. King Hewitt has shown promise in his five starts to date and kicks off at a suitable trip. Solid recent trial behind a couple of smart ones and he’s not to be overlooked.
How to play it: Bravissimo E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Bravissimo and Regent chase home Chapelco at Randwick on October 17
|Race 7 - 5:50PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Ellie’s Encore might have found a race that sets up well for her with a bit of speed on paper. She’s an honest mare and she left it just a bit too late at Warwick Farm last week on a soft track as favorite though did clock the fastest last 600m of 34.26 (Punters Intel). Senior jockey takes over and if he can keep her focused in the last 300m she should be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 4. Medovina managed to win first-up last preparation and she’s fitter for two trials where it’s fair to say she hasn’t stood out. Drawn ideally and if the 1100m isn’t too sharp for her she is a serious danger. 2. I Am Special has had a few trainers and is now with Gerald Ryan. No official trials to get a guide on how she’s going for the Ryan yard so keep an eye on the betting. She’s an on pacer drawn well with a good rider on board so worth keeping safe. 15. Moccasin Miss will appreciate getting back onto a good track after battling in the same race as Ellie’s Encore last time. Previous form was solid and she’s certainly an each-way chance.
How to play it: Ellie’s Encore E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Ellie’s Encore runs second at Warwick Farm on October 24