By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s midweek meeting on the Kensington track at Randwick. The track is rated a good 4, and the rail is in the true position.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM ALL TOO HARD@VINERY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
On paper just about any of the seven could win this race without surprising. My thinking is that it could be handy to be on the speed given there’s been no significant rain around overnight. 2. Federation tackled a strong maiden on debut at Gosford and made some ground from the back then led them up at Hawkesbury a couple of weeks ago. While he did have his chance I think he’ll have control of this race up front and should take running down.
Danger: 1. Charge has settled in the second half at all three starts and run on without threatening. Fresh at Warwick Farm last week he did just that and closed off the race fairly well in fourth. There wasn’t a lot of support for him there so keep an eye on the level of support this time. 7. Gododdin ran well on debut back in the spring and resumed at the Farm with an even effort and one of a horse looking for a bit more ground. She was last on the bend and was beaten five lengths by Pure Elation, which isn’t bad form. If she can settle a bit closer she could take holding out. 3. Quadriga was never in the hunt on debut at Moonee Valley but the race was controlled up front and it was a sprint home so he wasn’t disgraced beaten three lengths. Where he gets to from the outside gate is a question mark but worth keeping safe.
How to play it: Federation WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Federation’s last start second at Hawkesbury on April 5.
|Race 2 - 2:00PM #THERACES PLATE (1300 METRES)|
Another race with many chances. I’m pinning the hopes on the 1200m maiden at Rosehill on Easter Monday as being the right form for this race. 9. Stock Up hasn’t done a lot wrong in three starts to date and she found the line well in the aforementioned race which was her first since December and first below this trip. Her last 600m was 34.09 (Punters Intel). There’s speed drawn wider so hopefully she can slot into a spot in the first half and that should give her every chance.
Dangers: 5. Deft is a well bred filly on debut and looks a real market and yard watch for mine. Her two recent trials have been sound without being ‘back me’ trials and the latest was against older horses. If there’s any confidence she might be the one with a good gate and Hugh Bowman to ride. 7. Luskintyre Lass was about the same all the way when fourth in the Rosehill event in question above and she was a drifter on that occasion. Likely to go forward to a degree and could fight on a big stronger this time. 10. Toryjoy was in the market at her only start back in December and was safely held. Trialled okay at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago and it wouldn't surprise if she shows a lot more.
How to play it: Stock Up WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Stock Up chases home Montrachet at Rosehill on April 2
|Race 3 – 2:35PM EXOSPHERE STANDING AT DARLEY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
There looks to be good speed engaged here and from the inside barrier I picture 1. Revenire gaining a perfect sit off them and, hopefully, getting into the clear at the right time. He was far too good when resuming at Hawkesbury (Punters Intel - ran the fastest last 600m of 33.28 and an 11.08 his last 200m) and the runner-up has since won at midweek level to confirm the form. He has been a beaten favourite second-up on both previous occasions, which is some concern, but barring bad luck he should take plenty of beating.
Dangers: 5. Warranty is a big watch after having excuses at her first-up run back in February. She raced wide there, was solid in the market, and dropped right out. Trialled quite well at Randwick a few weeks back and if she can find her spring form she’ll be very competitive. 10. Sei Stella is an interesting one. She romped in on debut at Wagga on Country Championships Day the narrowly denied at Kembla on a heavy track. Never in doubt with a soft kill at Gundagai since then. Obviously this is a lot harder but she has good speed and could measure up. 2. Leogang has been a real find for the new stable and he was far from disgraced on a heavy track at Gosford last start following a couple of very easy Wyong wins. An on pacer but doesn’t have to lead and he’s well worth including in the chances.
How to play it: Revenire WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Revenire resumes with a dominant win at Hawkesbury on March 27
|Race 4 – 3.10PM BOWERMAN’S OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
I can probably get this staying race down to four winning chances but from there it’s still tricky. 4. Terwilliker is the only three-year-old in the race and comes off being outclassed in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas but his form prior to that is good enough to see him competitive. Three starts back he found the line well behind All Too Soon at Rosehill then up to 2300m he was $3.70 into $2.80 and was just outgunned at Newcastle. Right back in class and up to the mile and half he’s entitled to give some of these older horses a run for their money.
Dangers: 1. Bon Equus has to give the entire field 4kg or more but he’s clearly the best performed horse in the race so is deserving of the weight. He won with 60kg two starts back at Gosford and I thought he was just an even run in the Orange Cup last time out. No surprise at all to see him prove too good but at the same time it’s hard to be super confident. 2. Hoof Hustler is fitter for two runs back and he whacked away into third at Kembla Grange over 2000m a couple of weeks back. He won third-up at 2400m last prep, leading all the way, so it keeps him in the mix. The other chance is 3. Only Tiger though I can’t see him beating Bon Equus from their Gosford clash.
How to play it: Terwilliker E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Terwilliker’s second over 2300m at Newcastle on March 9
|Race 5 - 3:45PM RIBCHESTER NEW TO DARLEY HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
I’m certain 6. Seaway is a much better horse than what his first-up seventh at Rosehill earlier this month would suggest and I’m prepared to give him another chance. He had excuses fresh, racing wide without cover and I thought he stayed on fairly late to be beaten just under four lengths. He’ll be looking for the extra ground and he did beat Savacool, a Melbourne winner on Saturday, comfortably at this trip before a spell. Drawn to have a nice run and I’m expecting him to bounce back.
Dangers: 2. Multifacets is a tough on pacer who is effective over a mile and if he lands in the right spot should take plenty of running down in the straight. He hit the lead a fair way out at Rosehill last time and just kept going. While he rarely puts two together this race isn’t beyond him. 4. Our Mantra was out of his depth in the Tulloch Stakes and is much better placed back around the mile. A bit too good with 62kg two starts back in lesser grade, drops 6kg here and is more than capable of showing up. The other two Chris Waller runners are capable, though can be inconsistent, so 1. Dubaiinstyle and 7. Almighty Crown have claims as well.
How to play it: Seaway WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Seaway beats Savacool at Canterbury back in December
|Race 6 - 4:20PM RANVET HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Run of the race and track pattern by this stage will play a role in the outcome here. 5. Bravissimo is likely to find the lead here, or at least be right there, and he has the hoof right on the till after placings at both runs this time in. Looked to have the race in his keeping at Rosehill last time at 1400m only to be grabbed in the last stride. Back 100m and if he can just get the breaks he’s going to be awfully hard to run down. A good each-way chance at least.
Dangers: 4. Thaad tends to get back and run on strongly, often leaving it a bit too late, and he’ll likely be a closer if there’s some pressure up front. He could settle a little closer from an inside gate and if he runs up to his last couple of efforts he’ll be right there. 6. No Interest is another that will need some speed, or a cart home, to be in the finish but she’s always capable of showing up. Just missed three starts back to Suncraze and ran on from the back at Rosehill last start. There are a few other chances headed by 8. Schubert who won well at Hawkesbury first-up and 7. Awoke can sprint well fresh. If a run on pattern prevails she could take holding out.
How to play it: Bravissimo E/W ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Bravissimo is cut down in the shadows at Rosehill on April 2
|Race 7 - 4:55PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
4. I Am Poppy was just found wanting late first-up at 1200m, after running her first 400m in 23.70 (Punters Intel), three weeks ago when a solid favourite at the Farm. She drops 4kg and looks likely to land in the lead here and if that’s the case then she’ll be a lot harder to run down with the added fitness and 100m less. Small concern if the pattern is away from the leaders and she is getting a bit on the short side now but on face value she’s clearly the horse to beat.
Dangers: 7. Palladian really needs a confidence booster with a record of one win from 15 but he ran well enough fresh at Rosehill to suggest he has some upside this time in. Yet to miss a place in five runs at 1100m and placed two of three second-up so from a nice gate he’s entitled to show something. 1. Realise Potential is one of those horses that always has to be considered though he doesn’t have a super first-up record. Won a trial in good style on April 9 and despite a tricky alley and top weight I just can’t dismiss him as a chance to blouse them if he overdoes it. 5. Zafina is a consistent mare who has been competitive at midweek level and I'm loathe to leave the Matt Dale/Jason Collett pairing out.
How to play it: I Am Poppy WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
I Am Poppy’s first-up effort at Warwick Farm on March 28