By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a soft track.
|Race 1 – 12:35PM LYNNE BARTER MEMORIAL PLATE (900 METRES)|
2. Mission River bumped into Rulership on debut and was Listed placed at his next start before taking on the real topliners in the autumn. Trialled okay and a soft track looks ideal. Barrier might be against over the short trip but the one to beat.
Dangers: 8. Pounce was in the market in two starts in Victoria last spring and failed. Latest trial last week was okay on a heavy track and from gate one here she’ll have no excuses. Keep an eye on the market but sure to run well. 7. Miss Canada is worth forgiving her failure behind North Pacific on a heavy track but she does need to win one soon. Placed in some good quality fields at her first three and comes off a confidence boosting trial win. Gets a good chance. 3. Wuddacuddashudda was ridden up to win his Rosehill trial last week but suspect a firmer track will be a plus. Another market watch but can see him showing up.
How to play it: Mission River WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Mission River runs second in a Rosehill trial on August 4
|Race 2 – 1.15PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
7. Madame Firetrail gave away a big start at Hawkesbury second-up but found the line well into third, the runner-up has since won. Expect she’ll appreciate firmer footing and has struck a very winnable race. Entitled to go close.
Dangers: 9. Zou Island might get some on pace favours here and can improve on a disappointing effort at Goulburn last time. Ran well there prior to that failure and if she does get control can give cheek. 2. Zarzou has had a few chances and seemed to have every opportunity at Gosford first-up from a spell. There is some form coming out of that race with the runner-up winning on Tuesday and he’s in the mix. 1. Bucharest is a valuable colt being by Deep Impact out of Miss Finland but it’s fair to say his last trial was underwhelming. However, James McDonald rides and that was a 900m trial whereas he’s stepping out at 1500m here. Keep safe.
How to play it: Madame Firetrail WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Madame Firetrail runs third at Hawkesbury on July 30
|Race 3 – 1:50PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
3. Pride Of Islington took control of the race at Hawkesbury at her second start and was never threatened. Chance for a similar scenario here, the form is good so far from her win and a firmer track shouldn’t be an issue. Go well again.
Dangers: 6. Bizou romped in at Goulburn two starts back then battled on okay back on to a heavy track at Kembla. Should appreciate coming back into the soft range and is generally racing well. 2. What A Girl can be forgiven for two heavy track failures in town and she did improve when back onto a good track here between those runs. Draw gives her every chance to produce her best. 5. Swahili Man chased home a smart one two starts ago then converted with a game win at Wyong over a mile. Still gets in light with the claim so she could measure up.
How to play it: Pride Of Islington WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Pride Of Islington wins at Hawkesbury on July 30
|Race 4 – 2:25PM YARRAMAN PARK HANDICAP (900 METRES)|
1. Shadow Crush has a tricky gate over the short course but he’s strong at the finish of his races and trials. That was on display in his recent trial where he attacked the line nicely. If he can get balanced with the long run home he should be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 2. Rifles loves the shorter trips and generally races on the pace which is usually an advantage. Had excuses when beaten at $1.28 at Cessnock and freshened up since that run two months ago. Trialled well since and sure to feature. 7. Snitzari maps to get every chance first-up since winning over this course back in February. Trialled twice going back to July 1, so wonder whether there’s been a small issue, but commands some respect if all is well. 3. Belle Of Clonmel has only won once in 13 starts but placed seven other times and she was very consistent last time in. Probably not a 900m horse as such but from gate one should hand just off them and have her chance to be in the finish.
How to play it: Shadow Crush WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Shadow Crush runs second in a Warwick Farm trial on July 24
|Race 5 – 3:05PM COASTLINE POOLS & SPAS PLATE (1300 METRES)|
7. Hot Spring Gold is worth a look each-way on what he showed in a rousing trial win since an even first-up effort. It’s hit and miss going on trials but he was dynamic, has found a race that’s fallen apart somewhat and if he’s going to produce he has a good scenario.
Dangers: 4. Reaching will be very hard to beat in what looks a bit of a D-Day maiden for her. She threatened to win one last time in but didn’t convert. Tuned up with a couple of trials and she’s the logical horse to topple. 10. Centimental is another that has promised plenty but yet to break through and she’s already a Group 3 placegetter. Fourths to Smart Image in both runs this time in and may have been flattered in the latest. Capable and also has a chance to break through. 8. Jet Propulsion had trialled impressively leading into his Canterbury debut where he didn’t do a great deal on a heavy track. Inclined to forgive that given he strikes better going here and he can easily improve.
How to play it: Hot Spring Gold E/W ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Hot Spring Gold wins a trial at Rosehill on August 4
|Race 6 – 3:40PM SAGE PAINTING PLATE (1875 METRES)|
13. Sky Lab will be the shortest priced favourite of the day and it really does look to be his race to lose. Drawn wide in all three starts and has been huge in each of them, just failing at Gosford last time. Gate one, down 3kg, no depth. Hard to go past.
Dangers: 5. Vegareign hasn’t been great in his two runs back on heavy tracks and that’s clearly not his go so expect some improvement this time. Was competitive around this trip last prep up north and is worth a look for the quinella spot. 2. Phylave is a 31 start maiden with eight minor placings so it’s hard to make a case for him to win but he has been racing well of late. In the market when placed at Gosford two starts back and boxed on at Taree last time. Well drawn and another placing is realistic. 12. Queen Lear is still lightly raced and made ground to just fail at Forbes off an outside gate. Hard to line that form up but given she’s only had six starts she could have upside and that could see her in the placings.
How to play it: Sky Lab WIN ($1.35 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Sky Lab runs second at Gosford on July 25
|Race 7 – 4:15PM HUNTER VALLEY PREMIUM MEATS HANDICAP (1875 METRES)|
11. Silent Agenda was quite impressive breaking through at Hawkesbury on a heavy track recently and in an open race there’s no reason he can’t repeat given his consistent form on firmer ground prior.
Dangers: 4. Blazing Sunrise has a tricky gate to overcome but both runs back from a spell suggest he’s close to a win. Tried hard on the heavy last time and these track conditions should suit better. Can win. 3. Somnus was dominant winning over this course a couple of runs back then quite disappointing as a short priced favourite at Canterbury on a heavy track. Can forgive that and he can certainly bounce back if that didn’t take too much out of him. 6. Frenzied ran quite well when resuming at Kembla after settling near the tail. Made plenty of ground to finish midfield and will appreciate the extra trip. Would have preferred a kinder gate but must be considered.
How to play it: Silent Agenda E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Silent Agenda wins at Hawkesbury on July 30
|Race 8 – 4:50PM HUNGERFORD HILL WINES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Sweeping Brook couldn’t have been more impressive winning a maiden at Wyong at his third start and he was narrowly denied at his previous two. Hard to see him not being in the finish from the inside with a claim.
Dangers: 3. Saint Ambrose ran well first-up at Hawkesbury then beaten favourite at Kembla after getting well back. Expect improvement back on firmer footing. 7. Hubble has been thereabouts and had support when beaten in a close finish at Hawkesbury a couple of weeks ago. Doesn’t win out of turn but is one to throw into the exotics. 8. Super measured up to this sort of race with hi third here last week. Backing up and up in distance and should be running on.
How to play it: Sweeping Brook WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Sweeping Brook wins at Wyong on July 31