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Neil Evans' Tips For Kensington (Wednesday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 5 and rail out 3m:

Race 1 - 1:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE PLATE (1400 METRES)

3. Pictor is an emerging colt and one of three Chris Waller-trained runners. Did his best work late as a disappointing hot favourite when fresh three weeks back after coming under pressure a long way from home. Will come on from that run over significantly more ground. 4. Pierro Lad comes through that same race when hitting the line from well back into a place, and similarly will relish the longer trip. 5. Avenue Montaigne is a big betting watch resuming for her second start behind two progressive trials for the home base Waterhouse-Bott stable. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Panova, a lightly raced stablemate filly of the top selection pushed out over further second-up.

How to play it: Pictor to win

Race 2 - 2:10PM ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP (1250 METRES)

1. Jellicious is flying this prep for the leading stable, having easily won her maiden, and then sweeping home to claim a fillies and mares BM 72 at Warwick Farm. Up sharply in weight for a weaker class race, but that is off-set by a low draw and small field where she can settle a bit closer, and just needs clear air from the 350m. Clear one to beat. 8. Kakadu Sunset finished well into a place at big odds behind the top selection, and can run the quinella. 7. In And Out off a third-up provincial maiden win is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Jellicious to win

Race 3 - 2:45PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS AND SPAS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

6. Exclusive Artist is an honest and progressive mare well placed to claim an overdue win fifth-up. Missed narrowly in similar company two starts back before again running home late into a place over a mile after over-racing early & covering too much ground. Should have won that day, and bursting for the extra furlong. Stablemate 4. Luskaire has cashed in on heavy tracks, winning his last two from right behind the speed up to this level. Hard fit and drawn to get another soft run stalking the speed, but comes back a notch on drier ground. 1. King Pedro is an ex-NZ four-year-old having his first outing for the John O’Shea and Tom Charlton yard. Progressed to the Group 1 NZ Derby as a three-year-old gelding in early autumn where he was well beaten, and has been fitted with two trials. Will be doing his best work late. 7. Wounder can peak fourth-up staying over the trip after being held up last start; while coming through the same form-line, 8. Sting In The Tail is on a seven day back-up after a plain effort at Rosehill.

How to play it: Exclusive Artist to win

Race 4 - 3:20PM BRAVE SMASH YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Dance To The Boom is a progressive mare who has this at her mercy staying at the distance second-up. Got home okay from near last in a much deeper Saturday BM 78, and back against her own sex in what is a thinner lineup, with the leading jockey taking over, she’s primed to claim a fourth win at only her seventh start. 4. La Roja closed off well third-up at big odds in that same tougher race as the top selection. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Sweltering who improves second-up; while 7. It’s A Wonder can run into the minor money fresh behind two trials.

How to play it: Dance To The Boom to win

Race 5 - 3:55PM MYPLATES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Verbil is a lightly raced and progressive five-year-old ideally placed third-up with blinkers going on. Finished hard to beat a handy CL3 field at Scone before missing by a head in a provincial BM 64 when ridden closer. Gets a little weight relief for a higher graded city race, but the depth is average, and he by-passed Monday’s Warwick Farm meeting to be saved for this. 3. The Replicant is a tough and fit campaigner, although unlikely to start after a strong effort behind a smart winner on Monday. Watch the market on 5. Stagnum, a lightly raced four-year-old by Exceedance in the Hawkes stable, who returns for his first run since early winter off a quiet trial. 7. Believe In Angels dropping in weight third-up is an each-way chance; while 6. Ringarosa who swept home to win a country feature 24 days ago can add value into trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Verbil to win

Race 6 - 4:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1250 METRES)

9. Mamushka is progressing nicely this prep, and looms as the best value third-up. Stuck on well from on-speed in a provincial BM 64 before ridden quieter and running home late behind Jellicious. That form reads well for this over a shade further, and hitting peak fitness. 6. Alabama Fox resumes off two improving trials, and has the ability to fire fresh with a 2kg claimer booked to ride. 5. Master Of Disguise is a tough country mare who found the line well first-up in a CL3 Highway. 7. Fleeting Spirit was off a short break when luckless at a crucial stage a fortnight ago finishing behind the top selection. Big gap to the rest.

How to play it: Mamushka to win

Race 7 - 5:05PM OLE KIRK @ VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

6. Peace Officer was very good when resuming at Warwick Farm, finishing hard to beat all bar the winner, and the third-placed horse then scored a dominant win at Warwick Farm on Monday. Again drawn to settle back off speed and get to the outside at the 400m. 2. Rock Empire can improve sharply second-up of a long break dropping in grade 1. Well Timed will find this more to his liking third-up after failing to run home in a deeper Saturday BM 78, but draws wide under a big weight. 3. High Blue Sea is sparingly raced and ran home well late in the Panorama Sprint at Bathurst. Drawn to get a soft trail. 5. Bojangles is a second-up improver with winkers replacing blinkers; while 9. Silvanito will also be running home late third-up.

How to play it: Peace Officer to win

Race 8 - 5:40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1250 METRES)

6. Sydney Bowler is trained here, and can launch second-up at good odds. Made up strong late ground from a mile off the speed when resuming, and this isn’t much harder. Drops 3kg, and drawn to get to the outside at the top of the straight. 11. Verbil is well placed third-up down in weight with blinkers added, although more likely to start in a lesser graded race earlier on the program. 2. Mogo Magic was gallant in beating all bar the winner when resuming in the feature Black Mountain Federal at Canberra. Has a smart second-up record, and gets a crucial 3kg weight claim. 8. Zouripper is also afforded weight relief, and has won two of his last five in a long campaign. 3. Huon can improve third-up over more ground.

How to play it: Sydney Bowler to win

BEST BETS:
R4 3. DANCE TO THE BOOM
R5 2. VERBIL

BEST VALUE:
R7 6. PEACE OFFICER

All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting

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