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Neil Evans' Tips For Kembla Grange (Saturday, Provincial Championships)

By Neil Evans

Rain-hit track slowly improving to Heavy 8/9 and Rail out 2m from 1100m to WP so pattern should be away from the fence

Race 1 3YO CL1 (1000m):

Competitive opener at set weights and penalties. Newcastle filly 6. Asharani is smart and competed at Group 2 level in the spring. Trialled okay behind the flying Trumbull who has since bolted in first-up at Newcastle, and won easily on debut last winter.

Dangers: Warwick Farm-trained 1. Broken Arrows is untried in this sort of ground, but all three runs this prep have had merit up to BM 64 grade when finishing on behind the smart Evalina. Peaks for this, and bred on both sides to handle heavy conditions. Hawkesbury filly 8. Witherspoon has early speed and probably leads. Draws the fence for first run in five weeks and already shown strong wet track form. Doubt anything else can win.

How to play it: Asharani to win and box exacta 1-6-8.

Race 2 BM 64 HCP (1000m):

Wyong-based 3. Classy Anna is an above average mare returning for her third prep. No official trial, but was right on the heels of smart Juventus at Port Macquarie last autumn, and then won resuming on a Heavy 10. Stable going well, and big watch on the market!

Dangers: Warwick Farm filly 9. Buckle Up Baby has fair form only around this grade, but seems to save her best for rain-affected going. Big watch too on another resuming filly 10. Showgals who has had two trials, and boasts a strong fresh record. Goulburn-trained 1. Stone Cold is weighted to his absolute best, but gets a 2kg claim and draws the inside early in the day. Include Moruya mare 5. Joan Constance who carried a big weight to win first-up in weaker grade.

How to play it: Classy Anna to win

Race 3 4YO & UP CL1 HCP (1100m):

One of the trickiest races on the card. Lightly-raced and well-bred stallion 2. Regal Stage fought on well against stronger two runs back at Rosehill; before a moderate run at Warwick Farm on a Soft 7. Form reads very well for this, but a query in the ground.

Dangers: Trained on the track, 4. Thor's Thunder chased home stablemate Fortification last start, and wet track form is better than most. Include Randwick 5YO 5. The Patrician who has solid and consistent form on soft tracks.

How to play it: Regal Stage to win and quinella 2 and 4

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Another tough and open affair, although if Godolphin filly 10. Sakura handles the track, she'll be hard to stop. Was given plenty of time at the trials before hitting the line hard on debut at Goulburn, and this looks a nice second-up task despite drawing the widest gate and untested in heavy ground.

Dangers: Liked the first-up run of Randwick colt 3. Watching, but hasn't raced on anything worse than Good. Nicely-bred gelding 5. Britzel has trialled okay and bred to handle wet tracks. Local 5YO mare 7. Speed And Style has been freshened off some solid early maiden form.

How to play it: Sakura to win and trifecta 10/3-5-7

Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Surely Warwick Farm mare 4. Cappamore breaks through here at 14th career start. Placed nine times so far, and has just missed in both runs back from a spell in heavy ground when well-backed. Hard fit and firing, and can get away from the fence if need be in relatively small field. The one to beat!

Dangers: Rosehill filly 7. On The White Turf has returned for her second prep in much stronger fashion finding the line both runs, and ran okay on wet tracks last winter. Big watch on imported UK staying mare 5. Cleverley who debuts for strong metro yard; and first-up on Randwick filly 6. Amami who hasn't done much so far, but trialled well.

How to play it: Cappamore to win

Cappamore runs second at Kembla Grange on March 15

Race 6 CL2 HCP (1400m):

Loved the way Rosehill 3YO 3. Nuke has been attacking the line from well off the speed this prep behind some smart horses. Peaks now fourth run back over this trip, and bred to handle heavy going.

Dangers: Randwick mare 8. Casino Angel won three runs back in weaker grade, but has been solid since in decent form races. Should handle the track.

How to play it: Nuke to win

Nuke runs fourth at Rosehill on February 27

Race 7 BM 64 HCP (1600m):

Newcastle filly 4. Aliferous looks the smartest and most progressive horse in the race. Very solid and deeper metro form, including finishing under five lengths from Archedemus, and confirmed that strength bolting in last start at Tamworth when heavily backed. Drawn out which will probably advantage late in the day, and is the one to beat!

Dangers: Gosford gelding 1. Matakanui has a big weight, but well placed off a dominant heavy track win at Gosford two runs back.

How to play it: Aliferous to win and quinella 1 and 4


Typically wide open, and tough Newcastle filly 14. Think Free can upset at big odds and make it three straight this prep. Unbeaten in soft ground, and drops 3.5kg to the minimum weight after dominant BM 64 win a fortnight back showing strength and acceleration at both ends.

Dangers: Stablemate gelding 5. Juventus was enormous in the first qualifier at Hawkesbury covering ground, and has been given time to recover. Boasts sound wet track record. Another Kris Lees runner 2. Bastia returned off a nine-month break with a strong closing effort behind Archedemus, and while his second-up form doesn't read as strong, he's a BM 85 metro winner from last winter, and will thrive in the ground. High class local mare 10. Mandylion has been aimed at the Provincial Final for a long time, and is back in class from the Group 1 Coolmore Classic. Handles wet tracks, and another who looks well in on the limit weight.

How to play it: Think Free each-way and trifecta 2-10-14/2-5-10-14.

Think Free wins at Newcastle on March 9

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday Provincial Championships meeting at Kembla Grange

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