By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Kensington. Selections based on a good to soft track.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM HEADWATER @ VINERY HANDICAP (1150 METRES)|
2. Deep Sea looks a promising type based on what we’ve seen at the trials and there was plenty to like about his closing effort behind Golden Slipper placegetter Lyre. Drawing the middle is ideal and he should be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 6. Devachan is the logical horse to beat but she’ll need to do everything right. Went way too hard in front on debut when an odds-on favourite back in December and in her recent trial she was asked to settle off the speed but was still a bit keen. 4. Famous had some support at his only start in the Pago Pago and simply didn’t go a yard in the heavy ground. Expect he’ll far a lot better here on a better surface and back in class. Keep in mind. 8. Lombardia showed improvement into her second trial and she hit the line nicely running a close second at Rosehill last week. Wouldn’t surprise to see her show up from a favourable draw.
How to play it: Deep Sea WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Deep Sea runs second in a trial at Randwick on March 14
|Race 2 - 2:00PM EVENTS BY ATC PLATE (1300 METRES)|
7. Pinup Miss hit the line nicely behind a smart one on debut (fastest last 200m of 11.70 from Punter's Intelligence) and with that run under the belt, drawn wide with blinkers on she could easily cross to the lead. If she gets on the speed without too much trouble expect she’ll be hard to catch in the straight.
Dangers: 10. Word For Word hasn’t raced since she lost on protest to Cossetot at Canterbury back in early January. She’s got a win in her shortly and she comes off an easy trial win at 1200m. Whether she’s sharp enough is the question but she’s clearly a major player. 8. Savigne is another filly from the Waller camp that will be winning a race sooner rather than later and she’s also fresh after a close second back in early February. Handles a wet track but the better the ground the better her chances are. 5. Georgina Gold disappointed on debut then improved to place at Kembla three months ago before a break. Recent trial was solid enough and she’s an each-way chance.
How to play it: Pinup Miss WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Pinup Miss runs third at Warwick Farm on March 13
|Race 3 – 2.35PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
6. Traumatised has come back a very smart horse if his first-up win at Hawkesbury is any guide and the way this race looks to set up he should take holding out again. Just as good in the wet as on top of the ground and drawn well to have the last shot. Go well.
Dangers: 7. Consider It Done was no match for Traumatised at Hawkesbury but stayed on well to run second and a firmer track would be to her liking. No luck first-up and is one of the main chances. 8. November Man was narrowly beaten over this course back on New Year’s Day and comes here off a dominant Goulburn win where he was clearly classes above his rivals. Well worth including. 5. The Tenor didn’t really fire when he resumed here a month ago behind Wagner but he’s better than that. Not sure where he gets to in the run but his best has been when on the pace. Keep safe.
How to play it: Traumatised WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Traumatised wins at Hawkesbury on March 20
|Race 4 – 3.10PM DERBY DAY ON SALE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
7. Galway Girl seems to have found a nice race for her to break through third-up. Far from disgraced behind a handy one at Newcastle second-up when favourite and off a wide gate. Drawn ideally to be wherever she needs to be in the run and has a big chance.
Dangers: 5. Dame Kiri is yet to miss a place in seven starts and she step up to 1400m for the first time off a strong win at Newcastle. She can race handy and that might be an advantage in this field so she’s a contender. 1. Sure Knee hasn’t raced since scoring at Canterbury in January but she warmed up late for a nice trial win last week. She’s run fourth at both first-up attempts and the trip fresh suits so she has to be considered. 3. Zourhea didn’t handle the wet track at Kembla in the G3 and that can be overlooked. Back in class and onto a firmer surface will suit, might be a touch short for her but wouldn’t surprise to see her improve sharply.
How to play it: Galway Girl WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Galway Girl runs second at Newcastle on March 21
|Race 5 – 3.45PM MERCHANT NAVY @ COOLMORE AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1150 METRES)|
8. Vedder looks well placed to go very close after two runs back from a spell. He only failed narrowly at Hawkesbury last time and was closing fast, drawn well here and can either lead or sit off them from there. Has shown plenty of ability and a good chance to score.
Dangers: 10. Tony’s Reward hasn’t raced since November where he was probably at the end of his prep and a little outclassed at Randwick. Two trials back have been excellent and he’s also drawn well. Good fresh record too so bears close watching. 12 Colombina disappointed a little when beaten as favourite at Kembla Grange second-up, though she didn’t give it up and kept coming to the line. Entitled to another chance here. 2. Common Purpose is more than good enough to be in the finish if he has any luck from the wide gate. Narrowly beaten in a handy field at Warwick Farm then even effort in the Goulburn Country Championships. Freshened up and can’t overlook.
How to play it: Vedder WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Vedder runs second at Hawkesbury on March 11
|Race 6 - 4:20PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
12. Bajan Gold didn’t look happy in the heavy ground second-up but no surprise to see him lift sharply here. Well supported first-up at Canterbury and wasn’t disgraced hitting the line okay late so back onto a better surface he has the chance to show what he can do. Each-way at the price.
Dangers: 10. Boomtown Rat is racing well and indicated he’s looking for more ground when closing off nicely late over a mile at Warwick Farm. Gets back so the barrier isn’t an issue and he’s right in this. 1. King Tomlola is another who didn’t handle the wet track at his last run so forget that. Go back two starts ago and he was too good in a similar race off an inside gate. He’ll be up there from the start and can win. 11. Screamarr has put in two handy efforts over shorter trips since a spell and will also relish getting out to 1800m. The heavy probably flattened his run out a bit last time so a soft to good would suit. Has claims.
How to play it: Bajan Gold E/W ($11 TAB Fixed Odds).
Bajan Gold’s Australian debut at Canterbury on February 15
|Race 7 - 4:55PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
12. Restrained is unbeaten after three starts and it’s fair to say we don’t know how good he is yet. Didn’t look overly comfortable in the heavy at Kembla first-up but was still dominant and he’ll be fitter for that too. No reason to think he can’t take this step up in his stride.
Dangers: 10. Coterie has the stronger form references but you have to overlook his puzzling failure in the Canberra Guineas first. Nice fresh run behind Fiesta and Estijaab then game when third to Archedemus and Star Of The Seas. That’s pretty solid form and if he finds his best he can win. Read trainer Gerald Ryan's comments here. 8. Grimoire produced his best for a deserved win at Hawkebsury a couple of weeks ago and aside from his Warwick Farm failure he hasn’t done a whole lot wrong. Well in with the claim and has to be considered. 2. Calculated didn’t do a lot first-up from a year off on a soft 7 and has been back to the trials where he won nicely. Fitter and if he can improve and find some of his old form he’d be right in the mix here.
How to play it: Restrained E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Restrained makes it three from three at Kembla Grange on March 15
|Race 8 - 5:30PM ATC HONOURS REDOUTE’S CHOICE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
6. Obelos disappointed first-up on a heavy track at Hawkesbury but prepared to forgive that as he did a bit of chasing and was fresh at 1300m. Up 100m and onto a firmer surface he can improve sharply and showed in his trial he has some ability. Will need some luck from a wide gate. Each-way.
Dangers: 11. Full Recognition chased home a couple of handy ones in his first two starts then was far too good breaking through at Newcastle in a maiden. Sat on the speed and speared away to an easy win. Drawn to be right there and if he’s above average he could win again. 5. Ligulate was well supported and powered over the top late to win at Warwick Farm three weeks back. Good effort on this track prior and if he holds his form he has to be in the finish. 4. Pelorus Jack is more than capable of an upset on his fay and he’s fresh from almost two months off with two trials under his belt. Did run well fresh here back on January 1 and he’s probably a little over the odds.
How to play it: Obelos E/W ($9.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Obelos runs fourth in a Rosehill trial on March 1