By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a good to soft track.
|Race 1 - 2:00PM JUSTIFY @ COOLMORE AUSTRALIA PLATE (1400 METRES)|
6. California Surreal looks close to a win on her two runs back from a spell over shorter trips. Closed well here when resuming then loomed to win and just missed at Gosford two weeks ago. Small gear change and trip suits. Has another chance.
Dangers: 4. Montenegro is a big watch first-up with blinkers first time. Had plenty of support on debut but disappointed, though did track wide, and there was a bit to like about his recent trial win. Could easily feature prominently. 8. Wolves was outclassed in the Furious Stakes so overlook that. Prior she was runner-up twice including once here behind Chill where she worked home well. 2. Dufresne made a handy debut here on a heavy track then back 100m and onto a good track and wasn’t as effective. Up in trip again and any sting out of the ground a plus. Give another chance.
How to play it: California Surreal WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
California Surreal runs second at Gosford on September 8
|Race 2 - 2:35PM ADMIRE MARS AT ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
1. Able Willie is one of many first starters in this race and there was a lot to like about his trial performance at Rosehill recently where he certainly wasn’t pressured. Draws ideally and would appear to handle some give in the track. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 10. Lady Piaf is another first starter from the Waller stable and she was a trial winner at Rosehill earlier this month in handy enough style. Has James McDonald to ride and well worth keeping an eye on. 2. Gracilistyla hit the line well on debut at this track into third though safely held by the winner. Well bred and a likely improver on that effort, especially if the rain arrives as predicted. 8. Arranmore hasn't stood out in her recent trials at Warwick Farm but that's not to say she hasn't trialled okay. Betting a guide.
How to play it: Able Willie WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Able Willie runs third in a trial at Rosehill on September 14
|Race 3 - 3:10PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
6. Rathvilly Miss has a good record here and bumped into a couple of handy ones when runner-up at her past two starts. Hit the lead in a similar race two weeks ago and was run down by Promise Of Success which is no disgrace. Handles all ground and is a good chance.
Dangers: 9. Beep Test is an up and comer who controlled a Class 1 at Kembla and won without any real trouble a couple of weeks ago. Probably goes forward from the outside and has to be respected. 1. Ladylovestogamble ran a super race first-up at an unsuitable distance at Gosford to just miss. Fitter for that and an extra 100m is a plus, though she could want a little further. Has the inside alley and if that’s no disadvantage can be in the finish. 2. Parachuter was always handy and held off a late challenger to break through second-up at Goulburn. Shade harder here but not out of it.
How to play it: Rathvilly Miss E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Rathvilly Miss runs second at Kensington on September 15
|Race 4 - 3:45PM HEINEKEN HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
2. Daysan is a promising import who has continued to improve in his first prep for Kris Lees. Drifter in betting last time but strode clear in the closing stages for a strong win at Newcastle. If he can continue that upward trend this is a very winnable race.
Dangers: 1. Chains Of Honour has switched to the Maher/Eustace camp since running an improved second over this course four weeks ago. Probably doesn’t want a heap of rain as his best form has been on top of the ground so that’s worth monitoring. 9. Arabolini led and had his chance behind Daysan at Newcastle but does get a 5kg turnaround on that clash and has that on pace racing style. He’s capable of holding that form and measuring up here. 5. Deadly Impact led them up and weakened at Kembla last time out but drops in class on that and form prior was honest. Draws well and won’t be too far away from the action. Each-way.
How to play it: Daysan WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Daysan wins at Newcastle on September 18
|Race 5 - 4:20PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Hard to go past 5. Promise Of Success who will start a short priced favourite after a slashing win here two weeks ago off a two month break. The extra 100m is only a plus and rain wouldn’t be a worry to her. She’ll be very hard to hold out.
Dangers: 1. Snitzify is an on pacer who comes back a notch in class on his last couple but his first-up run was solid. Smaller field suits, handles some give in the ground and has performed well in both starts at this track. Could give cheek. 8. Green Flash showed promise in his first preparation with a debut win and was placed over 1550m at this track on Anzac Day. Four weeks since his last trial but check betting for a pointer. 6. Splendiferous will be fitter for a first-up fifth behind Promise Of Success. Past two wins have been at 1400m and does race near the speed so expecting her to improve a little, though hard to see her turning the tables.
How to play it: Promise Of Success WIN ($1.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Promise Of Success wins at Kensington on September 15
|Race 6 - 4:55PM VINERY HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
7. Blesk is very effective first-up and resumes on the back of an eye-catching trial behind Madam Legend a couple of weeks ago. Soft track would be okay for him and don’t mind him drawn out as he has a strong finish. There’s enough pace on paper for him to get his chance if it works that way.
Dangers: 9. Torun has not had the best of luck at both runs this time in finishing just behind the placings at both Wyong and here. Not tried at this sort of trip yet but the talent is definitely there and he’s dangerous in this race. 8. Super Contender loomed up to win first-up then not as effective second-up when ridden closer and forced to chase a runaway leader. Draws to get a soft run this time and is a threat. 2. Another One was a little disappointing first-up at Wagga when beaten into third at $1.70 but is fitter for a trial since then and his best form is more than good enough to see him mix it with these.
How to play it: Blesk WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Blesk runs second in a trial at Randwick on September 10
|Race 7 - 5:30PM BUY @ IRISH SALES ONLINE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
4. Stuck With You is a good each-way chance at odds, particularly if there has been rain around. Overlooking his run at Kembla last time, on his eye-catching fourth at 1550m here second-up in this class he can be right in the finish.
Dangers: 2. Mayfair Spirit was solid in betting and kept coming when a close third at Gosford over 1900m three weeks ago. Same weight here and drawn well again, some give in the track would be no barrier for him either. Good chance. 6. Ita is hard to knock with three wins on end this preparation including a victory over Head Of State, who won the Group 3 Gloaming last weekend, here two weeks ago. Up in weight and distance but not counting her out. Read trainer Bjorn Baker's comments here. 8. Chateaux Park had a race work out in his favour for once and he got the job done at this track, distance and class two weeks back. Always runs on and handles all conditions so is an each-way hope again.
How to play it: Stuck With You E/W ($17 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Stuck With You runs fourth at Kensington on August 25