By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Friday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 - 2:55PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
2. Brillar has a much better set up than when he ran an eye-catching third at Gosford when resuming. He drew wide there and settled well back, this time he’s drawn three and up to 1400m should race handier. With added fitness he looks hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Finepoint was no match for the winner at Rosehill at her second start but she did find the line solidly. Blinkers go on, keep an eye out for a tactics change though you’d expect from nine she’ll drift back. Logical danger. 3. Persevere comes through the same race as Brillar for his debut at Gosford and he performed well there to run fourth, noting a significant betting drift. Better for it and also has blinkers on. Definite chance. 4. Strombus may not have been suited to leading last time but he was still a little disappointing. A month between runs and he’s a possible improver.
How to play it: Brillar WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Brillar runs third at Gosford on November 20
|Race 2 - 3:30PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
13. Santorini Sun will need the breaks in the run but looks a good each-way chance first-up. Her debut was eye-catching then had excuses on a heavy track at her only other start. Latest trial was excellent, likely gets back but capable of showing up.
Dangers: 9. Russians has taken a bit of time to make it to the track but she looked strong winning her latest trial at Hawkesbury under a decent hold. Typically well bred, drawn nicely and should run well on debut. 2. Carartie hasn’t done a lot wrong to date and she resumed with a sound effort at Canterbury on a heavy track, chasing through along the fence from a midfield spot and getting within half a length. Fitter, should be around the mark again. 4. Kir Royale finished off her debut with plenty of purpose at Gosford and an extra 100m will be right up her alley. Definite chance.
How to play it: Santorini Sun E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Santorini Sun runs sixth behind Russians in a Hawkesbury trial
|Race 3 - 4:10PM TORIE FINNANE FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
5. Socialist should take beating first-up though might need a few map favours from a tricky gate with pace drawn inside her. Tackled a couple of Listed races after her maiden win in May and wasn’t disgraced. Nice trial win leading in and will run well.
Dangers: 1. Supremo can be hit and miss but a dry track suits him and he did lead all the way to win first-up last preparation. Not exposed in his trials, best form is fresh and he’s one to keep a close eye on. 8. Moon Reader was a drifting favourite at Gosford at her third start but there was little cause for concern as she led throughout for an easy win. Draws to lead here and could take running down with the 6kg weight drop. 3. Captivare was never in the race second-up and faces a decent drop in class here. Generally a consistent type and he can improve.
How to play it: Socialist WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Socialist wins a trial at Hawkesbury on November 22
|Race 4 - 4:50PM MERRY XMAS MEMBERS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
3. Jesse James as it stands is well placed with plenty of speed engaged. He’s drawn to land somewhere on the back of it instead of sitting outside the lead as he did last start at Rosehill. That was off a five week break too so he’ll be fitter and should be harder to beat.
Dangers: 6. For Valour is coming through the grades well with two easy all the way provincial wins at very short quotes. Biggest test here but puts himself on the speed and gives himself every chance. 5. Don Arcangelo struck form second-up at Hawkesbury and while back 200m here after the scratchings he comes in very well. Will need a little luck in running but capable of winning. 8. Dhakuri has been disappointing on the whole but did strike a soft 7 last time and his best form is on firmer ground, so he could improve.
How to play it: Jesse James WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Jesse James runs third at Rosehill on November 17
|Race 5 - 5:30PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
2. Lady Brook might have her best chance to break through since joining to the Joe Pride stable if everything goes right. Excuses two starts back when slowly away then boxed on last time on a soft 7 track. Blinkers go on and she is entitled to fire here.
Dangers: 7. Sweet Ruby is an up and comer and stole a popular win at Wyong third-up from a spell. Ran well in a stakes race in May and if she has any luck from the awkward gate she’ll be hard to beat. 9. Bitcoin Baby is lightly raced and resumed with an even effort from well of the pace at Gosford almost a month ago. Big weight drop to offset a class rise and she’s worth keeping safe. 3. Miss Bosetti had some specking at odds first-up behind Dragonstone at Kembla but didn’t get into the race. Fitter for that, drawn well and down in class she can be a big improver.
How to play it: Lady Brook WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Lady Brook runs third at Canterbury on November 12
|Race 6 - 6:05PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
4. Exotic Ruby hasn’t won for a little while but her first-up effort at Kembla was excellent, the winner led and she was only just touched out for second place eventually finishing fourth. She wants a dry track and a bit of luck early and this is very winnable if she gets those things.
Dangers: 3. Mensa Missile resumes with the blinkers off and did beat Forzanini when winning his latest trial, that horse managed a first-up win from that trial. Drawn to get a nice run or lead if he wants and he should go close. 5. Loch Lomond might not have liked the heavy track at Rosehill last week so overlook that. Game effort second-up and this might be his best chance to get back to his best. 2. McCormack hasn’t raced since July when he bled in a race here so is back from a break and there was nothing wrong with his recent trial effort. Tends to race well fresh and he could surprise.
How to play it: Exotic Ruby WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Exotic Ruby runs fourth at Kembla Grange on November 20
|Race 7 - 6:35PM HALL CHADWICK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
12. I Am Lethal is a promising three-year-old and he showed a nice turn of foot and some fight when winning second-up before a big class rise at Rosehill last time. He acquitted himself well there to loom up before finishing a close fourth. Back 100m, blinkers on and less depth here. He’s hard to beat.
Dangers: 8. Speed Legend should be getting fitter now after two runs back from a long break. The first was a nice effort in a slowly run race then favourite and just a bit one paced. Gets away from Canterbury, up in distance and back onto a good track. Likely improver. 6. Briars Kingdom has been handy in two runs since a break and while he will need some luck from the wide gate this time he’d only need to run up to his last start third here to have an each-way hope. 2. Rubamos was ridden on the speed to win first-up then well back in the run when beaten favourite at Rosehill. Tactics may be significant with him.
How to play it: I Am Lethal WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
I Am Lethal runs fourth at Rosehill on November 17