By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Tuesday’s Kembla Grange meeting. Selections based on a Good track.
|Race 1 – 1:00PM SHOALHAVEN EX-SERVO’S EXCITE REWARDS APP HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Unless one of the first starters is above average the local 1. Charm Offensive has a good chance to break through. He hit the line well at Hawkesbury at his second start then attracted very good support at Randwick at midweek level on September 5, just missing a place behind a trio of Chris Waller horses. The outside barrier is a bit sticky but with a bit of luck he should be hard to beat.
Dangers: 3. Buoyancy is a Godolphin colt on debut and while his latest trial was a pass mark he strikes me as an improver on that gallop as he didn’t wear blinkers. They’re on here for his debut and he’s drawn nicely. Keep safe. 2. Heavenly Glory showed a bit of speed in her lone trial at Warwick Farm a few weeks ago and being from the leading local stable she has to be respected regardless of what the betting says. 6. Blevio wasn’t disgraced in two starts last time in and she found the line pretty well in her second trial back at the Farm. Has the inside alley and if she’s up to this sort of race she can be in the finish.
How to play it: Charm Offensive WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds).
Charm Offensive runs fourth at Randwick on September 5
|Race 2 - 1:35PM DAPTO CITIZENS BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
2. Aboukir Bay was softened up in the lead when he resumed at Gosford and only gave in about 100m to run when the winner swooped. Fitter for that and with an easier run in transit up on the pace he is capable of featuring. His form has been a bit on the patchy side but this is a very winnable race.
Dangers: 8. Starry was a drifter in the betting first-up at Newcastle but got the job done thanks to a rails run. She looked as though she was going to edge clear late but just held on so she’ll be improved with the run. Awkward gate this time but may have more upside than most. 3. The Houso raced too bad to be true when he lost his unbeaten record first-up at Goulburn. Since has trialled quite nicely on this track and is entitled to another chance. 4. Fifteen Rounds hasn’t raced since he picked them up from last in a small field at this track back in May. Two trials this time in have been mixed, he was well beaten in the latest at the Farm. While those trials aren’t as impressive as prior to his debut he is worth keeping safe.
How to play it: Aboukir Bay WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Aboukir Bay’s first-up effort at Gosford on September 6
|Race 3 – 2:15PM WESTS ILLAWARRA HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
3. Cool And Neat is getting close to a win after two runs since coming from Hong Kong. He’s hit the line nicely on both occasions over shorter trips and getting out to the 1500m here looks right up his alley. Drawn nicely and if he can take advantage of it then he’ll be right in the finish again.
Dangers: 4. Nai’a continued to improve as she stretched out in distance in her first preparation and she’s set up well for this second-up after a close third at Wyong when resuming. Might have to get a bit further back this time from the barrier but she’s a decent threat. 2. Kathmandu is very consistent though has let punters down a few times. Scrambled home first-up at Scone then favourite again and couldn’t wind up in time at Hawkesbury running an even third. Another 100m here helps and he’s one of the main chances. 5. Twilighter won her only race to date at this track back in April then performed creditably at Canterbury. She’ll be better for whatever she does in this race but kicking off at 1500m gives her a chance to be competitive.
How to play it: Cool And Neat E/W ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Cool And Neat finishes strongly to run second at Wyong on August 26
|Race 4 – 2.50PM BOMADERRY BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Seel The Deel has been excellent in two starts from the outside barrier, finishing his races off well into the placings. Was coming back 100m last start at Newcastle so stepping out to 1500m will be to his liking. Drawn to get a perfect run, closer to the speed if he can hold a spot, and if he does then expect him to be right in the finish.
Dangers: 15. Salon Miss has started to strike form of late with placings at her past two starts on her home track. Jumped 400m into her second placing on August 18 so she’s in a better place now with that under her belt. A month between runs is no concern from the Markwell yard and she’s an each-way chance. 3. Knievel ran third at Hawkesbury last start after also drifting well back. He shapes as though the trip will suit him as well and has to be included in the chances now he’s started to find some form. 6. Purple Sector ran well at Warwick Farm first-up before an improved third at Newcastle when out to a mile. Will need luck from the outside gate but not out of this.
How to play it: Seel The Deel WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Seel The Deel runs third at Newcastle on September 4
|Race 5 – 3.25PM WARILLA BOWLS & RECREATION CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
It took her a while to break through but 8. Semper Fidelis can go on with then job now that she has. Granted she enjoyed a nice run at Hawkesbury first-up but she put the race away like we haven’t seen before from her, with Punters Intel data showing she ran an 11.38 last 200m, so she’s obviously improving. She’s again drawn well and will relish the extra journey so there’s no reason why she can’t repeat the dose despite the class rise.
Dangers: 6. Tycoon Mar will need some favours from a wide gate but he’s been competitive in two good form races since a spell. Closed off nicely behind Coruscate first-up then Cosmologist at Hawkesbury last time, both those horses have won in town since. If he does get some of the breaks he’s a contender. 4. Gravitate has been competitive at Canterbury in his last couple of attempts in on pace dominated races. Less depth in this event coming back in class and he’s an each-way hope at least. 16. Arrondissement was outclassed behind Mandylion at Rosehill last time but back to something like her right grade she's capable of improvement.
How to play it: Semper Fidelis WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Semper Fidelis breaks through at Hawkesbury on August 23
|Race 6 - 4:05PM WOONONA BULLI RSL CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
9. Veranes was never a threat first-up from a six week break despite being hard in the market but she did make some late ground to run third at Wyong behind Prophet’s Thumb. Expect the bigger track here will suit her better and she’s a likely improver especially with the race falling away after scratchings.
Dangers: 5. King’s Peak was a drifter in betting on debut at Newcastle and just held his ground finishing midfield. He’d trialled well leading into that race, run on a soft 7, and on a firmer track he could lift sharply. 4. Gayson ran last on debut but that was at Randwick behind The Autumn Sun and Danawi so he will find this much easier. Trialled up okay and you'd expect him to go forward. Could give a sight. 2. Quick Finance has trialled twice leading into his debut, the latest was a step up in running second at the Farm. Check betting but has a show.
How to play it: Veranes WIN ($1.55 TAB Fixed Odds).
Veranes runs on for third at Wyong on August 31
|Race 7 - 4:40PM TOWRADGI BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
10. Ligulate did a good job to break his maiden at Kembla first-up then he was far from disgraced in a much stronger race at Randwick, getting back and finishing off down the outside on a day when that wasn’t easy. He ran the third fastest last 600m of the race of 34.03 (Punters Intel). Right back in grade here and drawn ideally. He looks very hard to beat.
Dangers: 5. Danzie has been a little disappointing from a punting perspective but he returned with a sound second placing at Gosford and will appreciate an extra 100m. He is a midweek city winner and has run some other good races in town so he’s capable of improvement. 4. Rockafella tends to get a bit too far back in his races but he does hit the line and ran into a place at Canterbury last time after a couple of fourths in town. Out in distance here and he’ll again be running on strongly. 1. Sky Boy was Listed placed before a spell and did break this maiden status over this course back in September. Fitter for two trials and if the race pans out for him then he’ll be right in the finish, but he’ll improve on whatever he does here too.
How to play it: Ligulate WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Ligulate runs on strongly behind Reginae at Randwick on September 1