By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s Kembla Grange meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 1:30PM CURRAMORE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
2. Laila De Vega has bumped into one better in her last three and while Bottega ran past her last time she was getting away from the rest so the effort is sound. Drops 2.5kg and expect her to take beating.
Dangers: 5. All Over Magic broke through in fine style two starts back then not suited at Kensington though not disgraced beaten three lengths. Down in weight and overlook last run. Go well. 1. Waiheke is racing well without winning this time in and only just missed at Moruya third-up. Will crack it for a win soon and has to be included in the chances. 3. Head Up Hight comes through the same race as Laila De Vega and he hit the line pretty well without threatening. Extra 100m may suit.
How to play it: Laila De Vega WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Laila De Vega runs second at Hawkesbury on September 26
|Race 2 - 2:05PM CROOM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
4. Brazenpine looked the goods winning nicely second-up at Gosford, running a 33.71 last 600m (Punter's Intelligence), and that backed up a handy return here over this course. Only has to hold form and she will be hard to hold out in a very winnable race.
Dangers: 3. Fallgold has been thereabouts in two runs back, seemed to have her chance at Newcastle but prepared to say she can still improve. 1. He’s Super Lucky is back from a midfield finish first-up at Warwick Farm and it was a good enough effort. Drawn well, down in weight and has won here so definite chance. 6. Il Bandito led and punctured at Kensington last time but placings at previous two runs entitled him to another chance back to provincial level.
How to play it: Brazenpine WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Brazenpine wins at Gosford on October 3
|Race 3 – 2.40PM DUNMORE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
3. Mr Mosaic has shown enough in his two trials to say he’ll run well in a race with plenty of trial form. Could have won his latest trial at Rosehill if desired and the form out of his first trial is good. On that he’s a good chance.
Dangers: 9. She’s Smart has raced on the pace in her three starts but in her latest trial she sat back last and came sailing down the outside to win with a bit in hand. Drawn out so may be ridden cold but wary of her either way. 1. Avostar is a recent trial winner and both trials this time in have been solid without being eye-catching. Has the inside gate and any support should be respected. 8. Zina is another first starter and is locally trained. She wasn’t asked for a whole lot in her only public trial so any market support would be significant, but on face value could run well.
How to play it: Mr Mosaic WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Mr Mosaic runs second in a trial at Rosehill on October 1
|Race 4 – 3.15PM BUDDEROO HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
7. Sedona hasn’t raced for a year but started in the market in a strong race behind Time To Reign and Bivouac and ran fourth. Safely held by runaway winners in his two trials but at the same time not pressured. Looks hard to beat.
Dangers: 1. Suave was on the pace in a 1200m trial and held a clear margin on the line. Same trip for race day so that’s a fair guide on what he’s got and he’s one of the hardest to beat. 4. Pitchfork improved into his second trial and while the winner did it well it has raced well since the trial so that’s a good sign for this gelding’s chances. One to keep safe. 2. Gameman has had one quiet trial this time in which is standard for the stable so be guided by the betting, but he’s drawn well. So wouldn’t shock if he shows something.
How to play it: Sedona WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Sedona runs second in a trial at Gosford on October 8
|Race 5 – 3.350M CARRINGTON FALLS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
7. Rocha Clock won a trial back in May then resurfaced to win well late last month at Randwick. She was holding them nicely there and has come up with a favourable gate. So long as she’s solid in betting she’s the one to beat.
Dangers: 4. Brunetta has blinkers on first time and she’s had three runs back so should be at a peak. Hit the line okay in all three so maybe the blinkers give her an extra length or so. If they do she’ll go close. 1. Oxidization held her ground when she resumed at Newcastle in a handy enough maiden almost two weeks ago. Threatening to win one and gets another chance. 6. Branlina has had two trials lately and her most recent was won by Willowheart who then won on debut at Kensington. Both trials on wet tracks but an each-way chance.
How to play it: Rocha Clock WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Rocha Clock wins a trial at Randwick on September 27
|Race 6 – 4.25PM BROGERS CREEK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
3. Bisque tried hard to lead all the way on a heavy track here last Saturday and battled on well for third. That was second-up and with gate one he should be right up there and in an open race can give a big sight.
Dangers: 8. Time Of Glory was a winner first-up last time in and has had one quiet trial for his return. Best form is good enough to give him a fighting chance. 6. Rinviata hasn’t raced since April and no public trials but wary from a stable who can get them firing fresh. Couple of gear changes, drawn well and if there’s some support he could surprise. 9. Refire is capable on his day and resumes since a solid third at Goulburn over a mile in August.
How to play it: Bisque E/W ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Bisque runs third at Kembla on October 12
|Race 7 - 5:00PM KNIGHTS HILL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
4. Impatience was dominant sitting outside the leader and racing well clear to an easy Goulburn win last time and this doesn’t look a whole lot harder. Down 5kg and drawn to be right there again. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 2. Alison Of Tuffy generally races on the speed but found herself midfield when a close up seventh at Kensington last time beaten a length. Might have to go forward from the wide gate and she can improve. 3. Cappamore has only one win to her name but she rarely misses a place and performs well fresh. Latest trial was sound and would expect her to be around the mark. 6. All Sassitude was placed at Newcastle three starts back and not disgraced there next time but outclassed at Kensington in her latest. Overlook that and she’s an each-way chance.
How to play it: Impatience WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS
Impatience wins at Goulburn on September 27
|Race 8 - 5:40PM YELLOW ROCK HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
1. Californiafirebird will need a bit of luck from the wide gate but it is a 2000m race and he tends to get back a bit. Plenty to like about his last three runs in city company and only up 0.5kg on last time after the claim. Expect him to be running on well.
Dangers: 5. Hilltop Hood is hard to knock with a couple of popular wins including one at 2000m at Canberra last time. Must include while in top form. 3. Baanone broke through for an easy Hawkesbury win third-up and the extra trip shouldn’t be any concern. If he can put two efforts together then he’s in the mix. 6. Poulton Le Sands ran a handy fourth at Hawkesbury two runs back at 2100m then not up to it at Kensington last time out to 2400m. Can bounce back and be competitive.
How to play it: Californiafirebird E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Californiafirebird runs fifth at Kensington on October 9