By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s meeting at Kembla Grange. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 1:10PM CUDGEREE BAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
6. Satin Socks is right back in class on a couple of handy efforts in town, should have won two starts back then hit the line well behind Lucicello last time. She ran the second best last 600m of 34.02 (Punter's Intelligence) there. Nothing like that company in this race, drawn one and with even luck will take beating.
Dangers: 4. Brigid Of Kildare might be one run away from a win but there was plenty to like about her first-up effort over 1000m here a couple of weeks ago. She was very strong late as you’d expect and the extra distance will help. She just might want a little further. 1. Evict comes through the same race where he worked home pretty well to run third. The 1200m probably advantages Bridig Of Kildare a bit more than him so she probably beats him home. That said he’s a chance. 7. We Could Be Heroes had support at odds and ran a nice race to make it six second placings on end when chasing home Superbowl Sunday at this track. Struggling to win but can’t fault consistency.
How to play it: Satin Socks WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS
Satin Socks runs fourth to Lucicello at Rosehill on July 27
|Race 2 - 1:50PM LAKE ILLAWARRA HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
3. Mo’s Crown probably should have beaten True Detective on debut then didn’t handle the heavy in a Golden Slipper lead up. He’s trialled up pretty well, has gate one and was scratched from Canterbury to run in this easier race he’s entitled to win.
Dangers: 1. Antonio has been a beaten favourite in all three starts this time in and he certainly won’t be favourite here. He was engaged in a speed battle at Gosford last start and won that battle but was left a sitting shot for Lancer. He’ll win one, it’s just a matter of whether he’s bumped into a better horse. 4. Leo caught the eye on debut at Newcastle then a bit flat over this course second-up. Likely improver on that so wouldn’t surprise if he lifts a bit. 5. Courageous showed speed to lead on debut at Wyong and stayed on fairly well to place. Fitter for that, probably goes forward again and is in the mix.
How to play it: Mo’s Crown WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Mo’s Crown wins a trial at Warwick Farm on July 26
|Race 3 – 2.25PM WINDANG HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
3. Super Oasis is a promising filly who should be contesting much better races than this in the coming months. Super effort debut then not disgraced at Group 3 level in the autumn. Outstanding trial win recently and while she’s a short priced favourite she deserves to be.
Dangers: 1. Nature might be a bit stiff to run into a smart one here because she’s ready to win a race after an eye-catching, and unlucky, first-up second behind Battle Guardian at Gosford. Held up there at a vital stage and should have gone close. Threat. 5. Get Hitched was scratched from Canterbury to run here and her only start was in the Group 2 Reisling in March where she was beaten four lengths, Trialled well leading in and expect her to run a handy race. 2. Maisaa hit the line well on debut behind the smart Erno then fought hard at Gosford at her only other attempt last prep. Quiet trial, interesting to see how she goes in a strong maiden.
How to play it: Super Oasis WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Super Oasis wins a trial at Warwick Farm on July 26
|Race 4 – 3.05PM WARILLA HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Happy to stick with 3. Eleven Eleven who has really found his form with two impressive wins over this course on end. Powered away after sitting on the speed two weeks ago and while up in weight this race is no harder and he should go close again.
Dangers: 1. Black Chilli can be forgiven for failing at Canterbury in a much stronger race last time. Previous form including a win over this course on a heavy track and a solid placing up to 1200m. Local who should run well here. 11. Starry chased home Eleven Eleven last start from well back in a pretty handy effort. Meets him better at the weights but has a couple of lengths to make up on him. Each-way claims. 6. Sophiella hasn’t won for a while but her best is good enough to see her competitive. City placed on Boxing Day last prep and fitter for a recent trial. Watch betting but include in the chances.
How to play it: Eleven Eleven WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Eleven Eleven wins at Kembla Grange on July 25
|Race 5 – 3.45PM PRIMBEE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Again happy to stay with 3. Emergent now he’s put a field away in good style. Steps up in class obviously from a maiden win but was dominant and the mile should only help his cause. Drawn ideally and is promising, hard to beat.
Dangers: 9. Laguna Mountains is an interesting runner first-up at a suitable trip since a city placing in December. Lightly raced and comes off a short trial into a race more in his comfort zone. One to keep a close eye on. 2. He’s Imposing might want 2000m but he attacked the line with a bit of purpose late second-up over 1500m here two weeks ago. Expect him to be finishing strongly again and if he does he might be ready to win next start. 8. First Reading is a super consistent mare who was a popular winner over a mile at Goulburn by a clear margin. Has placed a couple of times here and while up in grade her consistency has her in with an each-way hope.
How to play it: Emergent WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Emergent wins easily at Kembla Grange on July 25
|Race 6 – 4.20PM BARRACK HEIGHTS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
5. Monstrosity is something of an outsider in betting but his run here last start wasn’t bad and the extra distance looks right up his alley. He’s well named, he’s a big fellow, and he sat wide but battled on at 1300m last time. If he’s going to show something this prep it’ll be here.
Dangers: 1. Deelbraka was beaten again last time when well in the market in a similar race, run down by a promising type in Agosto. He can find one better so he’s always a risk at a short price but is the logical horse to beat. 4. Design Ahead finished behind Deelbraka when third two starts ago then no match for Emergent here last time. But that’s pretty solid form for this race so he has to be included in the chances. 3. Majella hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts to date and did chase hard behind Emeralds here a couple of weeks back. Barrier one and Nash Rawiller to ride say she has to be some chance.
How to play it: Monstrosity E/W ($16 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Monstrosity runs fifth at Kembla Grange on July 25
|Race 7 - 4:55PM BLACKBUTT CONDITIONAL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
6. Dolly’s Due is on trial at 1400m but she was pretty strong at the end of 1300m when winning in the same grade last start. City winner, racing well on this track of late and only up the 2kg. Hard to see her not figuring somewhere in the finish. Read trainer Michelle Ritchie's comments here.
Dangers: 4. Holy Reign started favourite and got the job done narrowly over the 1300m here two weeks ago. Had the wide gate to contend with so will need some luck but no issues with the trip as he’s won at a mile. Definite chance. 8. Tenorino has to be considered a winning hope, beat Dolly’s Due two runs back then run down by her last time. If that’s the right form to win this race then he’s a big chance. 3. Golden Hits has been freshened up since a string of placings in similar sorts of races. Probably has to push forward from a wide gate and with even luck in running he’s one of the main hopes as well.
How to play it: Dolly’s Due WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Dolly’s Due wins at Kembla Grange on July 20