By Ray Hickson
Is Reloaded the new The Autumn Sun?
The promising colt has attracted comparisons with Chris Waller’s recently retired star, who won eight of his nine starts, largely due to the identical path the trainer is taking with the two-year-old.
So is it fair to compare a young horse with one start under his belt to a five-time Group 1 winner?
Racing And Sports’ Timeform expert Adam Blencowe says those suggesting Reloaded is the year younger version of The Autumn Sun should look to their respective debuts in the 1200m two-year-old race on Anzac Day.
He said The Autumn Sun’s debut in 2018 was rated 105 by Timeform while Reloaded’s win last month came in at 99.
“We have the benefit of knowing what The Autumn Sun went on to do,’’ Blencowe said.
“If you can force yourself to ignore what you know The Autumn Sun did I don’t think comparisons are unfair at all.
“If we go on one start apiece (Reloaded) has ground to make up but it is not insurmountable.
“There’s no reason to think he’s not up to scratch, after one start they are as untapped as they can be.’’
Six pounds is generally somewhere between two and three lengths.
The Autumn Sun beat Danawi, who rated 99 with Timeform, in his debut and a year earlier Pierata returned a 95 figure for winning the corresponding race.
So it’s a pointer that Reloaded, a $1.90 favourite with TAB to make it two from two in the Supporterhub Handicap (1400m) at Randwick on Saturday, a race also won by The Autumn Sun in 2018, has Group 1 potential.
A more recent guide to where Reloaded could stand is in lining him up against Libertini, who won the fillies version of the same race on Anzac Day and has since recorded a stakes win.
Reloaded ran 0.02 seconds faster overall time while Punter's Intelligence data showed Libertini's last 600m of 33.85 was 0.02 quicker than the colt.
Blencowe said Libertini’s win also rated 99 and Timeform can’t split the pair on their performances which is a fair rap considering the reputation that filly is building.
Libertini ran to 105 on debut in the Kindergarten Stakes, then won at Randwick, and her Listed Scone win took her to 109.
“The figures say they were almost identical at Randwick, the visual is probably because he had more to beat than she did,’’ Blencowe said.
“It looks a pretty true piece of form. She’s a really good filly, he’s matched her on the clock and we think in terms of form.
“You know Chris Waller isn’t a ‘crank them up’ early trainer, he’s very much an improve them with a run or two trainer.’’
Reloaded's debut win at Randwick on Anzac Day
With that in mind Blencowe expects Reloaded to take a reasonable step at Randwick.
The Autumn Sun improved to 108 at his second start when he won at this meeting last year then to 113 when he took out the Group 1 JJ Atkins Stakes in Brisbane, which is Reloaded’s next mission.
“You’d think he would produce something in the low 100s,’’ he said.
“It’s not a stakes race but he is going to produce something like a lower stakes level performance if he does what is expected of him.
“Where it’s going to be hard to keep tabs with The Autumn Sun is next season. All of a sudden (The Autumn Sun) goes to 126 and wins a Golden Rose, that’s when it gets tricky.
“The basic probability says that not many do that.’’