By Ray Hickson
Ray Hickson’s tips and insights for Wednesday’s ATC meeting at Hawkesbury. The track will be good and the rail is out 3m from the 1300m-400m then true.
|Race 1 – 2:00PM BLAKES MARINE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
The form around 1. Aonair is quite compelling and while the confidence level isn’t high I have to go with her to break back into the winner’s stall. Not far off the likes of Beau Geste and Our Mantra three starts ago then outclassed in the Reginald Allen. She then bumped into Sky Boy who confirmed the form somewhat with a stakes placing during Cup week. Sky Boy got away from her late at Canterbury as she picked up the early leader to run second on the line. Don’t see an issue with the trip and on form she’s the one to beat. Just a niggling doubt over whether we can trust her.
Dangers: 6. Tinkermosa appears as though she’ll eat up the 1800m and then some. She certainly relished the mile at Gosford, making a long run around them and breaking away late to win at her third start. Clearly has the most upside and looks a big threat. 5. High Dude ran his best race to date when sticking on for second behind the promising All Too Soon at Randwick over this trip. Expect he’ll be in this for a long way. 3. Bochy probably should have won at Tuncurry after almost falling on the turn. Wouldn’t surprise to see him competitive.
How to play it: Aonair WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Quinella with Tinkermosa.
Aonair runs second to Sky Boy at Canterbury – November 1
|Race 2 - 2:35PM HAWKESBURY RACE CLUB MOTEL PLATE (1300 METRES)|
Happy to give 8. Tiki Bar another chance despite a first-up defeat as a short priced favourite at Canterbury. She enjoyed a nice run behind the speed, just took a bit too long to get herself across the winner’s heels but they gapped the third horse. This will be her first go on a good track, which is a positive, and 1300m won’t be a problem given she’s again drawn to have an ideal run in transit. A very winnable race for her.
Punters Intel: Tiki Bar recorded the fastest last 600m of 36.24 in the soft ground in her race first-up at Canterbury.
Dangers: 4. Moonmo should pose some kind of threat first-up. There was plenty of merit in her debut at Newcastle in June, she was set a task from last and worked home like a horse looking for more ground. So the 1300m fresh is ideal and she made some good late ground in her 900m trial. Might be more a "next start" horse but definitely worth keeping safe. 5. Sasuba hit the line nicely from last first-up over this course a few weeks back. Whether she also wants more ground is possible too but she also could have upside. 3. Chain Of Fools battled on well at double figure odds when resuming at Warwick Farm and may take catching here.
How to play it: Tiki Bar WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Tiki Bar’s first-up second at Canterbury – October 27
|Race 3 - 3:10PM LANDER TOYOTA PLATE (1300 METRES)|
This race could go any way and in the end I went with the horse with the least convictions but it’s also a bit of a punt. 5. Red Captain is on debut off one trial on the Warwick Farm synthetic track. That’s not normally a formula to want to rush into any horse but when you look at the replay there’s really not a lot of clues as to how much ability he has. He’s never let go at all and is restrained close to the line. He has the inside gate and 54.5kg after the claim, in a wide open race he could be worth the gamble.
Dangers: 1. Dream I Can was running all over the track in the last 200m when resuming at Kembla and had he gone straight he’d definitely have finished closer than the 1.8 length margin. Straight to 1300m from a tricky draw says to me he’s a bit under the odds but he’s also the best performed horse in the race and is capable of being in the finish. 8. Starring didn’t do a whole lot on debut when in the market more than a month ago but races in blinkers here and trialled quite well (in the same heat as Red Captain) wearing them since that debut. Could be a big improver.
How to play it: Red Captain E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Red Captain’s very quiet fourth in a Warwick Farm trial – November 6
|Race 4 - 3:45PM THE LIVAMOL DASH (1000 METRES)|
2. Wanna Get A What is building an imposing record (10 starts, five wins) and while he’s coming off a Queanbeyean win first-up he ran a smashing 55.48 for the 1000m (he’d never won fresh previously) and he’s unbeaten second-up. He was good enough to win a Highway at the Hawkesbury stand alone meeting back in April, beating Ruthless Agent, and he’s the type that can lead or sit just off them. If he can improve off that first-up run, as big an ask as that seems, he’ll take plenty of beating.
Dangers: 9. Envy Of All has been competitive in all six starts to date though only has the one win to speak of. She was competitive against a couple of smart fillies first-up then had Bon Amis give her a cold over the 900m at Newcastle. That horse has since proven himself in town. She has barrier one and on the limit has another chance to break through. 4. Phuket is definitely worth keeping safe first-up off a soft trial. He was a winner fresh last time in and has won both his starts at this track in good style. 7. Timing is a consistent mare though strangely hasn’t placed in four first-up attempts. Granted she’s not technically first-up here given the 10 week break since her last run. Perhaps she needs the sting out to really fire but I can’t leave her out.
How to play it: Wanna Get A What WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Wanna Get A What bolts in first-up at Queanbeyan – October 29
|Race 5 - 4:20PM THE HAWKESBURY GAZETTE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Arguably the race of the day. I’d be surprised if 7. Lisdoonvarna doesn’t measure up to midweek company on what I’ve seen in her two wins since crossing the Tasman. She sat wide on the speed and powered away late in a maiden first-up then again cantered home taking the step to a Class 1, both at Nowra. They strike me as confidence builders and she comes to town at the top of her game and on the limit weight. She’s sure to be in the finish.
Dangers: 4. Marble is an odds-on favourite in the early market and he does worry me greatly. I had him marked as close to unbeatable first-up at the Farm and he didn’t stretch out at all when the pressure went on. Granted he didn’t jump the best and had to do some work so there were excuses. He certainly wasn’t the horse we’d seen in his trial. Entitled to another chance but the short price is a concern. 1. The Hipster is equally as dangerous as Marble. He’s an interesting horse, trialled in March last year then didn’t debut until he bolted in at Hawkesbury in December then not seen again since. Follow the market with him, and if he’s supported with confidence he could be the one. 2. Cymbalism disappointed first-up and while she stays at 1100m look for her to hit the line a bit better this time.
How to play it: Lisdoonvarna E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Lisdoonvarna scores easily at Nowra – October 22
|Race 6 - 4:55PM CLARENDON TAVERN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
I think the winner is down the bottom of the weights but confidence levels aren't high. 8. Paris For Me had some support second-up at Wyong and it was a pretty solid effort to just go under after making a sustained run from the back before the turn. May be afforded a softer run here and the longer run home will suit. She looks a very good chance.
Dangers: 10. Radiant Choice did a lot of chasing and stayed on nicely behind To Excess first-up then a bit flat last time though was tightened up close to the line. Blinkers go on and he can improve. 2. Invincible George started favourite fresh and battled on fairly at Kembla though it’s fair to say he had his chance. Last win was almost 12 months ago on this track and he’s an each-way chance. 4. Grimoire got a lot further back than usual at Kembla last start and has trialled since. Capable of showing up in a wide open race.
How to play it: Paris For Me E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Paris For Me finishes strongly to run second at Wyong – October 22
|Race 7 - 5:30PM STYLEMASTER PATIOS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Open staying event with some in-form up and comers. 2. Wallangarra has done nothing but improve in his three starts in Australia and you had to like the way he powered clear late at Newcastle last start. It suggests the 2000m is right up his alley and I can see him landing in a nice spot just off the speed and winding up strongly in the straight.
Punters Intel: Wallangarra was the only horse to break 36 seconds (35.90) for the last 600m in his Newcastle race.
Dangers: 5. Itasca finished strongly from well back to win over this course two starts ago then had an easy kill as a $1.35 favourite at Bathurst. Locally trained horse who is obviously in career best form and is a good chance. 6. Raise An Army finally broke through for a maiden win at Gosford a month ago and appears as though he’s ready for the extra distance. 4. Baysa has been disappointing since a slashing first-up run , going under as favourite twice after seemingly having every chance. But if she finds her best she’s a winning hope.
How to play it: Wallangarra WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Wallangarra’s latest win at Newcastle – October 21