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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Yulong Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens.

1. Beiwacht (Chris Waller): Can’t fault how he’s presented in two runs for the new stable and it’s fair to say he’s had no luck at all in either. First-up he sat three deep on speed and stuck on exceptionally well behind Raging Force and Wodeton. Two weeks ago he had to work in the breeze chasing, he hit the front but by that stage was a sitting shot. Big effort to hold second. He faces the task of turning around 1.5 lengths but you couldn’t imagine him having a tough run this time given it doesn’t look as though this race will be as brutally won. Is 1400m a query? It is, though his sire Bivouac won this race in 2019. You could easily make a case for him.

Nepotism (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Nepotism (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): The Champagne Stakes winner was always going to be vulnerable first-up at 1200m but his ninth is still a little below expectation. Granted he was disappointed for a run early in the straight. Sectionally he was one of four to break 34 seconds home so on the clock he’s a pass, to the eye he didn’t attack the line as you’d like to see. He won the Baillieu at this track and distance second-up in the autumn, that was on a heavy track. It wouldn’t be a massive form reversal if he was to feature in the finish but he has some work to do.

3. Skyhook (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Everything has gone right in his preparation for this race with an impressive first-up win in the Rosebud under a big weight and his closing third in the Run To The Rose. He was blocked for a run for a good margin from the 300m to the 200m and produced the fastest final 200m to be beaten over 1.5 lengths. It’s hard to know how close he gets to Tempted with a clear shot at that vital stage. A middle draw probably suits him, he’s versatile enough to take advantage of a slow speed or sit off a faster one. He has to be dangerous.

4. Wodeton (Chris Waller): A big moment of truth for a colt that has promised a lot since his debut win but hasn’t won in six starts since. He was excellent fresh, and should have finished a bit closer, in the San Domenico then in the Run To The Rose was stuck wide near the tail of the field and showed some heart to run on into fourth almost three lengths from the winner. Good chance he’s in front of Tempted this time around given he’s drawn gate one. Tried 1400m in the Sires’ and was game after another wide run there so he’s had the fortune at the right time from a barrier perspective. Blinkers go on. He appears good enough, he now needs to convert it.

5. State Visit (Ciaron Maher): For a rank outsider his first-up run was excellent as he worked home to run fifth in the Run To The Rose. He did have an easier run than Wodeton who came from behind him and held more than a length on him on the line. In his favour is his second placing in the Sires’ back in April before he ran a solid fourth in the Champagne. In five starts he’s finished fifth or better on each occasion so he’s yet to run a bad race. On face value he does need to lift on that fresh effort, but he could and sneak a placing.

6. Rivellino (Kris Lees): A bit has been expected of him since a promising two-year-old season which saw him win his first three starts then ran respectable races in the Slipper and Sires’. He raced just to the inside of Tempted in the Run To The Rose and couldn’t sprint with her, pretty much holding his ground for a midfield finish. He could well be wanting further now, so the 1400m is a plus but he has the problem of the outside barrier. Does he go forward or back? He does have the jockey booking to try something interesting. Still, he has to spark up quickly.

7. Autumn Boy (Chris Waller): His sire The Autumn Sun won this race in 2018. Has had a boom on him since winning his first two starts and you just have to wonder how he started $51 on debut. While beaten first-up in the Ming Dynasty his effort was more than handy. He was able to land forward of midfield and whether it was track pattern or race fitness that hampered him he did a super job to get within about half a length (and closing) on the line. You’d expect from his gate he would likely go back, but he does have the blinkers on so not sticking solid with that theory. The bigger question mark could be whether he wants a mile already and would he have the turn of foot to react if it’s a slowly run race. Clearly talented and worth respect.

Autumn Boy (Pic: Bradley Photos).

8. Sixties (Chris Waller): He’s raced through the winter and until just over a month ago was getting beaten in maiden company. He knocked that over when striking a very heavy track. Raced wide at his first run in stakes company but he got control in the Ming Dynasty and was able to skip away on the turn and hold off his stablemate. Given he’s a well related colt and is in form this is a throw at the stumps that’s very worthwhile, you’d have to think there’s more upside in his opposition.

9. Tempted (Ciaron Maher): Plenty was expected of her first-up coming off a two-year-old season that saw her win three from six but could easily have added a Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper with any luck. She landed in a good spot midfield in the Run To The Rose and appreciated the solid tempo up front, chiming in and breaking away late. She ran the race’s fastest last 600m and was the only horse to break 11 seconds between the 400m and 200m when making her run. She has a different set up with a trickier gate and going to 1400m but if the speed isn’t as strong perhaps that works in her favour as she appears to have the best turn of foot. Clearly the horse to beat, with the fingers crossed.

SPEED MAP: The likelihood is of a moderate tempo unless there’s a catch me if you can tactic from Sixties who appears the most logical leader. If he doesn’t lead it could be left to Beiwacht to take it up. You’d imagine Wodeton wants the box seat and he’d likely settle no worse than fifth on the fence, particularly with the blinkers on. That leaves Skyhook, Autumn Boy and Tempted looking for striking positions. They can’t all find one. What does Rivellino do from the outside? Nepotism and State Visit are in the second half somewhere.

SELECTIONS:
9 TEMPTED
3 Skyhook
7 Autumn Boy
4 Wodeton

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill