By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Canterbury Park. The track is rated Good 4.
|Race 1 – 1:20PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
I was surprised to see 1. Aramayo come up better than even money because on what he showed on debut at Kembla Grange he is clearly the one to beat for mine. He settled back and made his run with the winner, while he had his chance to run the winner (an odds-on favourite) down he didn’t give up going down half a length. I note he had good support that day and surely he benefits from the run. He clocked the fastest last 600m in 34.28 Punters Intel in taking on older horses. Impossible to tip against.
Dangers: 6. The Summit strikes me as a big improver out of his debut at Kembla on the same day run in slower time. It appeared he was only really warming up late so to be beaten two lengths it was a solid effort. Check the market for stable confidence. 2. Horn contested the same event as The Summit and ran third after looming up to potentially win the race early in the straight. He did lead two starts back at Newcastle and may have to find the front from the outside. Not counting him out. 4. Alier led them up also in the same Kembla event and just battled a bit to finish midfield. Don’t really see him as a winning chance but an improved showing here wouldn’t surprise.
How to play it: Aramayo WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Aramayo finishes second on debut at Kembla Grange on July 21
|Race 2 - 1:55PM ATC HONG KONG TOUR PLATE (1250 METRES)|
Tricky little race where obviously tactics will come into play. I was quite impressed with the debut of 7. Maid Of Heaven here a couple of weeks ago, hitting the line strongly from well back. Of course that meeting was run on a track that favoured those on the pace so her effort had even more merit. Punters Intel data showed she ran the fastest last 600m of the race in 35.90. If she’s to progress to better things I’d like to see her winning this race.
Dangers: 5. Churning is another filly that has shown the promise to progress at least to Saturday company. She caught the eye at her first start at this track on heavy ground then had a month between runs and wasn’t quite up to the likes of Plague Stone at Randwick, though that race was run in fast time. Entitled to go close. Both first starters also bear close watching. 2. Matowi has only had the one trial, as is becoming common for Chris Waller, and there was a bit to like about how he found the line. No surprise to see him winning this. 1. Brilliant Choice has taken a bit of time to get to the races with a couple of trials in February before resurfacing with an even effort running second at Rosehill on July 23. Again, has to be respected in the small field.
How to play it: Maid Of Heaven WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Maid Of Heaven attacks the line from well back at Canterbury on July 25
|Race 3 – 2:30PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Prepared to give 1. Couvre Lit another chance after failing first-up as favourite at Wyong back on July 14. She trialled very strongly going into that race and the fact was she was never in the hunt and was always chasing around Wyong. Drawn perfectly, Hugh Bowman goes on board and she’s a lot better placed at the 1250m than she was first-up at 1000m. And I thought the price was attractive enough. She did down Adana and Dio D’Oro on debut so has some talent.
Dangers: 6. Symi is a full sister to Catchy who cost $700,000 at the sales. She was run down by Nasaayim, who was in the market last Saturday at Randwick, in her latest trial and looked to be going well. She’s a big threat for mine. 5. Le Lude had something of a hard luck story when she stepped out for the first time at Warwick Farm three weeks ago. She was winding up when she was forced to check as horses inside and out ran about a bit. Beaten less than a length in a handy effort. Do I want to take under $4 here when she went around $21 that day? That’s the question. 2. Misteed started $4.40 in the same race as Le Lude and was a shade disappointing in running sixth. She looked good winning first-up and did trial nicely before that, while that’s going back a bit in time she has the ability to feature here.
How to play it: Couvre Lit E/W (1-2) ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Refresh on Couvre Lit’s excellent trial at Rosehill prior to her first-up run.
|Race 4 – 3.05PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
With Star Of The Seas scratched again I'm more than happy to go with 8. Metamorphic who was one of the runs of the day at Canterbury when he flashed home to run second to Smartedge two weeks ago. From a good gate he has the ability to sit a bit closer in the run, as he showed in his maiden win three starts ago, and he could take some running down if he hits the front.
Dangers: 6. You Make Me Smile has been racing in outstanding form in Saturday company, better than the numbers in his form might suggest, and he’ll appreciate coming back to midweek grade here. Whether he gets his own way in front, or a cushy enough run, is questionable but with form around Paret, Oria and the like he can’t be overlooked. 5. Scream Park is an interesting runner. Only the one run in the autumn and it was the Hawkesbury Guineas where he didn't do a whole lot. His form back in the summer was promising and I'd be watching the market for a pointer. 9. Smart Ain't He showed some fight in breaking through at his third start here a couple of weeks ago. Expect he'll go forward from the wide alley and if he gets the breaks he could be in the finish.
How to play it: Metamorphic WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Metamorphic charges home late behind Smartedge at Canterbury on July 25
|Race 5 – 3.40PM RIBCHESTER STANDING AT DARLEY HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
I don’t like the price on offer but from a tipping perspective I have to be with 5. Foreign Territory who started $4 when midfield behind Paret at Rosehill on July 28. He didn’t get any control there as he did when winning three starts back or his gallant second to Deft over this course. I’d expect him to find the front this time and be very hard to run down, I’d just rather be taking $3 or so.
Dangers: 10. Mad Fox is eligible for easier races given he had a benchmark of 59 but he’s been very competitive of late and stuck on well up on the pace behind Island Missle last start at Warwick Farm. That’s reasonably good form and Island Missile would probably be favourite for this race. Gets a perfect run and is hard to beat. Big watch on the ex-Kiwi 6. Makdanife who is now with Chris Waller and it’s interesting that Hugh Bowman takes the ride. He wasn’t overly impressive in his 900m trial but it was over a trip way short of his best so be guided by the betting here. 9. Mollyfied is one of those horses you always have to throw in and she didn’t give up the fight when runner-up at the Farm three weeks ago. Drawn to have every chance to again be somewhere in the finish.
How to play it: Foreign Territory WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Foreign Territory splits Deft and Shadal at Canterbury on June 27
|Race 6 - 4:15PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
I’m prepared to take the punt that 11. Esperance has come back in good order because he’s a horse that showed a heap of promise about 12 months ago. Only the one run last time in and he wasn’t beaten far over the unsuitable 1000m, his only start at that trip. I thought there was a bit to like about his only public trial where he worked home well under restraint and I thought there was enough speed here to allow him to settle and make a dash at them. Be guided by any late moves but some early support is encouraging.
Dangers: 6. Junglized has a run under his belt and it was a good one too at Randwick on July 21 where he sat outside the lead and kept finding as the first two home gained inside runs. Fitter and we know he’ll be up on the pace and could be the one to run down. 8. Za Zi Ba didn’t win last preparation but it’s hard to knock her as she took on I Am Excited three times and She Will Reign in her other tart and wasn’t beaten far on any occasion. She trialled very well behind Soothing at Warwick Farm recently and is a definite chance for mine. Throwing 15. Rockafella in just in case they overdo things up front and it’s left for something charging late. He does that sort of thing regularly and he has the blinkers on this time around too. Did his usual thing here last start five weeks ago and has to be included in exotics at least.
How to play it: Esperance E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Esperance runs a handy third in his trial at Randwick on July 30
|Race 7 - 4:50PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
6. El Dorado Mine is ready to win again now after having no luck in his two starts since a slashing first-up victory. Arguably should have won second-up then last start at Canterbury he was enormous against a strong on pace pattern. To be only beaten two lengths was a big effort. I’m sure he’ll appreciate the extra distance again and from a good gate he won’t have to be quite so far back. Clearly on top for me.
Dangers: 5. Bochy has drawn out in his two runs since winning at Muswellbrook but I’d expect he can settle a bit closer to the speed having come up with the inside marble. Overlook last run behind Jolly Honour in a race where the winner took off at the 800m and had them all chasing. Placed over this course prior and looks a threat. 2. Valentino Rossa is a horse that always needs a bit of luck in his races as he does get back. Started favourite last week and was never in the hunt, getting well back before charging when it was all over. Not sure if he can take advantage of the better draw but if he can he could take beating. 4. Geometrist is a little hard to line up but he’s been racing consistently on the Gold Coast. Drew wide and settled last before running third last time out and it wouldn’t surprise me if he measures up to some degree.
How to play it: El Dorado Mine WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Watch for El Dorado Mine finishing late out wide at Canterbury on July 25