By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for the meeting at Canterbury Park on Wednesday. The track is rated a Heavy 8.
|Race 1 – 12:50PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
The big concerns for the opening race are the lack of wet form and a distinct lack of speed. I have liked the last couple of runs of 3. Nautibernie at Newcastle and Kembla where she has attacked the line strongly late from last, running 23.99 for her last 400m (Punters Intel). Banking on Kerrin McEvoy putting her in the race and it’s worth noting the rider last start said he settled her further back than was intended after some early interference. She looks close to a win and this is a very winnable race.
Dangers: 4. Sporty appears the likely leader to me, I can’t see Brenton Avdulla dragging her back from gate five of six in a race where the lead is up for grabs. She had every chance at Warwick Farm a few weeks back but held her ground. Her dam With My was adept in rain affected ground so that’s a plus. Go well. 2. I’m A Legend and 1. Monsieur Sisu come through the same race at the Farm a month ago where they ran third and second respectively. The latter has since been beaten at Hawkesbury as a $1.35 favourite while the former won a trial at Randwick. Both go to the 1550m for the first time but the fact Monsieur Sisu was beaten since their clash it doesn’t fill me with confidence in the strength of form. Still, they have to be considered.
How to play it: Nautibernie WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Nautibernie arrives a bit too late at Kembla Grange on May 12.
|Race 2 - 1:25PM ALL TOO HARD@VINERY HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Like the first, this race appears up for grabs and the confidence isn't high. 7. Voodoo Lady had plenty of support first-up at Newcastle and tried her heart out in running second. Yet to see a wet track and a little short for my liking but open to improvement and is one of the main chances without being bullish.
Dangers: 1. Be Mindful has to be respected on debut for the Waller-McEvoy combination. He’s had the two trials, wasn’t a standout in either but regardless performed well enough, and being by Pierro you’d think he’ll be okay in the wet. Keep safe. 5. Mista Legend was a $3.20 chance on debut but didn’t go a yard at Kembla Grange almost a month ago. Trialled okay to be narrowly beaten by Saturday performer Flow and he could be an improver here – though it’s hard to be super confident unless he turns out to be a superior wet tracker. 6. My Blue Jeans was scratched from Goulburn on Tuesday to run here. He's had his chances of late but in a small field on a wet track, which he hasn't seen yet, you never know.
How to play it: Voodoo Lady WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Voodoo Lady's second placing when resuming at Newcastle on May 19
|Race 3 – 2:00PM SPRING ON SALE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Although 6. Misteed has only had the three starts I see this as a bit of a D-Day for her. She had absolutely no luck in her first two starts back in January then wasn’t up to them in the Widden before a break. She’s returned with two trials and the second was one of a horse ready to win as she strode out under a big hold at the Farm on May 21. I’d say she’s 50-50 to handle a wet track and if we’re only talking soft then I wouldn’t have a lot of concern. I expect her to be hard to beat but it’s not a gimme.
Dangers: 7. Tell Me hasn’t struck any luck with barrier draws as yet but the scratching help. She ran on from last after drawing out here when resuming a couple of weeks ago. Pattern might come into play with her, I think a wet track won’t be a problem and she’s a definite chance. 4. Ljungberg trialled up really well prior to his debut where he was thrown in the deep end in the Wyong Magic Millions behind Jonker. Again he’s had two handy enough trials and his mother had no worries with the wet so he’ll likely be okay. Wouldn’t surprise to see him run well. 2. Home Soil made a handy enough debut at Canterbury two weeks back and the fact he's running suggests the stable thinks he will handle the wet track.
How to play it: Misteed WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Misteed cruises home to win a Warwick Farm trial on May 21
|Race 4 – 2.35PM VALE JOHN WENMAN HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
Speaking of D-Days, 6. Walk The Streets has only won one from 10 to date but she looks very well placed to break through second-up from a spell. She resumed over the same course two weeks ago and had to do a lot of chasing to a couple of clear leaders, I thought she boxed on pretty well and will appreciate not only the run but the give expected in the ground. Last prep she was placed, and close up, behind the likes of Just Dreaming and Rustic Melody and back to 55.5kg here she’s the one to beat.
Dangers: 9. Regine started favourite in the same race as Walk The Streets and finished basically alongside her. I thought she had every chance but I think the barrier forces her to go forward and that’s where we saw the best of her last preparation. Wet’s no issue and she’s entitled to improve here. 1. Mana has some good wet track credentials to his name (I don’t consider Soft 5 to fit the wet definition, anything worse is) and if you overlook his latest run where he was very one paced he could bounce back here. Tends to run well here and has won at the 1550m so don’t be surprised if he shows up. 3. Braces backs up after a soft track win at the Farm last week and strikes another wet surface which is to his liking. Fifteen starts in the wet and he's missed a place only four times so has to be included.
How to play it: Walk The Streets WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Walk The Streets runs fourth at Canterbury first-up on May 23 with Regine fifth
|Race 5 – 3.10PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Wide open race here as the market tells you. 7. Mollyfied comes back from quite a strong Saturday race at Randwick last month won by Savatiano and it was a total forgive run. She wouldn’t have won but she sat three wide on the pace and just had no answer when the sprint went on. She’s no star but she’s proven in all conditions, drawn well and raced very consistently last time in. With a couple of scratchings she's shortened right up but still each-way is probably safer.
Dangers: 2. Zafina was never in the hunt in the same race as Mollyfied last start but her previous form in similar company is more than good enough to think she can be competitive. She’s a get back and run on type with four placings from five runs here and some handy wet track placings as well. Again, an each-way chance. 1. Villa Carlotta is right back in class after finishing a couple of lengths off Epidemic at Rosehill on May 19. It’s fair to say her best efforts have been on rain affected ground including a fourth to Shoals last year and if she’s going to recapture some of that form she has her chance to in this. 12. Dutchesse Moshe is an interesting runner and she's quite short in the fixed odds markets. Comes off a dominant win on the synthetic at Canberra and she wouldn't be starting if she didn't handle a wet track to some degree so keep her in mind.
How to play it: Mollyfied E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Mollyfied has no luck first-up behind Savatiano at Randwick on May 26
|Race 6 - 3:45PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
8. Red Zephyr is usually an on-pacer but went back from a wide gate before running on into a placing a month ago in a race won by the leader, running the second fastest last 600m of 35.15 (Punters Intel). He’s drawn the inside here so expect him to be a lot closer in the run. I wouldn’t want a heavy track but his wet form is a bit inconclusive as they’ve come against better opposition. An each-way chance at least.
Dangers: 10. Metamorphic is a last start maiden winner and he had plenty on them at the Scone carnival where he raced wide all the way and cantered home by four lengths. Maybe that’s the turning point for him and he might go on with it now. 2. Pianissimo ran on well when resuming here two weeks ago and he’s always performed well in the wet. Wide barrier and strike rate a small issue but worth thought. 3. Gadfly could jump out of the ground on a wet track. Never in the hunt last start but he'd been hitting the line nicely in his previous two runs. Likes it wet and down 4kg.
How to play it: Red Zephyr E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Red Zephyr hits the line late when resuming at Canterbury on May 2
|Race 7 - 4:20PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
This race could lend itself to an upset particularly if we’re on a deteriorating track. Those circumstances prevailed the last time 4. Allcash won a race and it was over this course back in December where he downed an in-form Emperor’s Way. He’s had 28 starts on a good track and is yet to win so the key to his chances is the rain where his record is a solid two wins and two placings from five starts. He was okay first-up at Kembla over a mile and last prep he improved sharply second-up before winning here in those wet conditions. Each-way.
Dangers: 5. Bringagem is the favourite and is the one in this race with the least amount of convictions. He controlled the race at Gosford last week and was never threatened at all and while he’s up to 1900m on a likely wet track it’s the upside he has that could be the difference. I just couldn’t rush in at the price. 1. Base Camp is another horse that’s a 50-50 chance of handling a reasonably wet track but aside from that there’s nothing wrong with his recent form, particularly the last couple of attempts at this track and trip. Has the 61kg and a tricky gate but I’m not counting him out. 8. Firebird Flyer is yet to place second-up though he did run fourth last prep at his second run back. Held up a bit and wasn’t fully tested to the line fresh at the Farm behind Monasterio and there’s less depth in this event. Both wins are in the wet and he could show up.
How to play it: Allcash E/W ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Allcash’s win on a soft track at Canterbury back in December