By Ray Hickson
Ray Hickson’s tips and insights for Wednesday’s Canterbury Park meeting. Very strong in the second half of the meeting and perhaps a bit of value early on.
The track will be Good and the rail is true.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM ALL TOO HARD@VINERY PLATE (1550 METRES)|
Racing can throw up some strange results at times but on form I find it hard to past 3. Kaonic who produced an outstanding first-up third at Warwick Farm. He was only winding up at the end of the 1400m and nosed out Improvise, who won at the public holiday meeting on Monday, for third. Small field and extra distance are pluses and he does look like a horse going somewhere. Punter’s Intel: Kaonic ran the fastest last 400m of his race at Warwick Farm clocking 22.20.
Dangers: 5. Smiling Manolito also made his debut at 1400m, hitting the line nicely enough at Newcastle. Has an in-form Hugh Bowman to ride and like his stablemate appears to have a fair bit of upside. It wouldn’t surprise me if he knocked off the favourite, because improvement is hard to quantify, but on form I can’t have him on top. 6. Union Dues made a late dash to claim third behind Woman at Canterbury first-up and she’ll appreciate the extra 300m as well.
How to play it: Kaonic WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds).
Kaonic’s eye-catching third at Warwick Farm – September 20
|Race 2 - 2:00PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS VIC HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
There was nothing wrong with the last start second by 3. Carluca at Warwick Farm and he’s surprisingly wide in the market in a very similar race. He was always up on the pace and fought on gamely when challenged by Lead Choreographer, who has run well again since, to go down narrowly. He doesn’t have to lead but I expect him to be in the first three and have his chance in a very winnable race. Dangers: 1. Dortmund was quite plain at Rosehill last week after handing up the lead. He didn’t really give anything in the straight to raise hopes of backers who supported him into favouritism. Less depth here so he could lift. 2. Calypso Bay and 5. Intueri are a lot better than their latest efforts would suggest and are more than capable of improvement.
How to play it: Carluca E/W (pay 1-2) ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Carluca running second at Warwick Farm – September 20
|Race 3 - 2:35PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
In another quite open affair I thought 7. Star Sensation could run a very nice race first-up looking at the way she is trialling. Showed some promise in her first prep including a last start second to Serena Bay at Goulburn. Downed a subsequent city quinella in her second trial then attacked the line nicely under a hold in her latest behind White Moss at the Farm. Solid each-way chance on those.
Danger: 2. Solar Patch should have finished a lot closer to the smart Demerara at Gosford last time out, being held up at a crucial stage before getting out when the race was all over. He’s racing very well and hard to see him not being in the finish. 4. Renewal ran right up to his good trial with a debut win at Newcastle. He will get all the favours again from the inside alley and if he has a bit of upside then he could win again..
How to play it: Star Sensation E/W ($9.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Star Sensation’s third trial this prep at – September 22
|Race 4 - 3:10PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS QLD HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
2. Rosettas Whey was one of the runs of the day at Rosehill last week, tracking wide throughout but still attacking the line to finish a close third behind Alliterate. Gets a soft draw this time around which will help her run out the 1900m and if she can repeat that latest effort she has to be in the finish of this quite open race. Punter’s Intel: Rosettas Whey covered an extra 8.2m at Rosehill last start, more ground than any other runner in her race.
Dangers: 3. Token Of Love was forced to lead over the same course on September 13 and she boxed on quite well to hold third. No luck in a similar race prior to that and she’s unlikely to have to lead this time around. Back to fillies and mares after taking on the boys lately and she’s hard to beat. 7. Royal Stamp finished strongly to break her maiden first-up then stayed at 1400m and found it too short second-up though really attacked the line when the race was over. No surprise to see her be competitive here. How to play it: Rosettas Whey E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Rosettas Whey runs third after racing wide at Rosehill – September 27
|Race 5 - 3:45PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
I thought 3. Marsupial was quite plain in the Heritage Stakes against the three-year-olds at Randwick last start but I’m inclined to be a bit forgiving because he ran so well first-up in a much stronger race than this one. He started favourite fresh and split Tango Rain and Isorich and that form has held up quite well over the last few weeks. Gate seven of eight could be a bit tricky but there looks to be enough speed for him to have his chance.
Dangers: 1. Our Royal Egyptian finally broke through with quite a soft maiden win at Gosford then backed it up last Wednesday with a plucky third behind Passage Of Time after leading from a wide gate. He’s sure to be competitive again. 4. Stonebrook is a little hard to line up though he’s won two from two in reasonably good style. Only had two rivals at Kembla Grange first-up but dug in when challenged and edged away. Can’t leave him out.
How to play it: Marsupial WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds)
Marsupial’s first-up second behind Tango Rain – August 26
|Race 6 - 4:20PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS NSW HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
3. Zaunkonig seems to be hitting his straps lately and while he has been big odds at his last couple he’s right back in grade into this. Gave a good sight on the speed behind Quick Defence then an even better sight running third to Alward and Up ‘N’ Rolling at Rosehill. What price would either of those be in this race? Won at 1550m at his only start at this track and gets his chance to break through.
Dangers: 1. Estikhraaj has the big weight and wide barrier but he’s loving life racing at Canterbury at the moment. Very well ridden when scoring over this course two starts back and just touched out last time out a few weeks ago. Only needs the race run to suit to get into the finish. 7. Savapinski might be a touch of unders as she did struggle to get the better of Rogue Missile in a small field at Hawkesbury over the mile. But she is up in distance and will race on the pace and that keeps her in the mix.
How to play it: Zaunkonig E/W ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Zaunkonig runs a game third at Rosehill – September 23
|Race 7 - 4:55PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
With Beacon coming out it's thrown this a bit more open than I thought. Left with 8. Best Guess on top. He was quite honest in his first preparation before striking a heavy 10 and clearly not handling it beaten 12 lengths by Memes. I thought he trialled well enough at Rosehill recently and I expect him to run a nice race fresh, especially with a couple of key scratchings.
Dangers: 5. White Moss failed first-up last prep before stringing three together then going down narrowly to Quick Feet at Rosehill in May. Won her trial well beating Star Sensation, who runs earlier in the program, and has to be strongly considered. 3. Dissolute had his chance first-up at Warwick Farm behind Realise Potential. The race has opened up a bit for him now and he's in the mix but a bit unders.
How to play it: Best Guess E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Guess trials well at Rosehill – September 19
|Race 8 - 5:30PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS ACT HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
5. Slow Burn looks a smart one and had she not drawn the outside you’d be declaring her after her outstanding trial win. But an outside gate just means a bit better price. Her first trial was good behind Assimilate then she just lapped them on September 25 after sitting back and wide. I want to be on her here first-up.
Dangers: 1. Missile Coda should be completely forgiven for her failure at Randwick on September 16, she didn’t get any peace from a wide gate and was only beaten two lengths after being gone on the turn. Easy winner here prior and is entitled to another chance, as is 9. Acqume who wasn’t up to it in the Tea Rose but was flying prior to that.
How to play it: Slow Burn WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Slow Burn’s impressive trial win at Randwick - September 25