By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Canterbury Park. The track is good and the rail is out 3m.
|Race 1 – 2:00PM TAB.COM.AU PLATE (1100 METRES)|
Very tricky two-year-old event to kick off with and following the market closer to the race could be significant. 8. Rosadiblu from the Snowden camp trialled quite well on a heavy track at Wyong a month ago, finishing second to a stablemate that went on to win on debut, albeit narrowly. There was a decent gap to third. I like that she’s drawn the middle and can probably settle in the first half. The stable’s youngsters have been going well this spring and I’d expect her to be competitive without getting carried away.
Dangers: 2. Gongs won her only trial at Canterbury by a small margin in a four horse field and you always had the sense she was going to win. Perhaps by a bit further. Hard to get a guide on her and where she’ll get to from gate seven but you have to respect the Godolphin youngsters. 6. Perfect Pitch is a half-sister to Lipizzan and she rounded up a small field to beat her stablemate Showgals (a winner at Muswellbrook last weekend). I find the synthetic trials even tougher to line up but, again, she’s in the mix. 3. Granny Red Shoes has race experience and while no match for the winner on debut she battled on fairly into fourth. Could be an improver.
How to play it: Rosadiblu & Gongs quinella.
Rosadiblu runs second in her Wyong trial – October 23
|Race 2 - 2:35PM PLUCK@VINERY HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
I’d have 1. Seaway marked as potentially the best horse racing at this Canterbury meeting. Perhaps it’s a big call but he looks to have the quality to work his way through the grades. He had a very quiet trial leading into his debut where he bumped into a smart filly in Epidemic at Randwick but he did finish the race off in fine style. While I’d like to see him at 1400m, the blinkers go on and that’s a formula Chris Waller has used with plenty of success for these lightly raced three-year-olds of late. In a five horse field he won’t get too far off them, you’d think, and he should be good enough to round them up.
Punters Intel: Seaway’s last 600m of 34.16 was the fastest of his race at Randwick, as was his 11.51 last 200m.
Dangers: 2. Balearic is a very interesting runner here and one that could spring an upset due to being better suited at the 1250m. He’s been gelded since his last run back at the end of September and is worth being wary of. 3. Fresh Start had some support on debut at Warwick Farm in early September but blew the start and was never a threat after that. Given a decent hit out in his second trial back and it wouldn’t surprise to see him lead and give some kind of sight. 4. Scream Park was a massive drifter at his only start and worked home okay, back in June. Looked good in his first trial since then an even trial on the synthetic. One to watch.
How to play it: Seaway WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds).
Seaway finishes off for second behind Epidemic at Randwick – November 7
|Race 3 - 3:10PM #THERACES HANDICAP (2700 METRES)|
The weight spread and how the race may pan out make this 2700m event a test for both horse and punter. You don’t generally get rich by backing horses that have won one from 19 but if 3. Wine Bush is ever going to win a race that doesn’t involve some kind of obstacle then surely this is the one. He was beaten pretty much fair and square at Randwick last start but he has a 2kg swing and has been hitting the line with a bit of purpose of late.
Dangers: 1. Doukhan found winning form for the first time since mid-2015 when he swept down the outside to beat Wine Bush at Randwick. The soft ground there was very much in his favour and the fact we’ll be dealing with likely a Good 3 makes me want to risk him a little. No doubt he’s the best horse in the race, the 63kg (less the claim) tells you that, but his only good track win was his maiden back in 2012 in France. That said, he can win this. 5. Dream Folk definitely wants a good track, he’s had 17 goes in the wet without success. Even effort to run fourth behind Doukhan and is capable of giving this a shake with a 2.5kg swing. 4. Ashkannd ran third at Randwick after being handy throughout and has been placed over this trip previously.
How to play it: Wine Bush WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) – if you’re game.
Doukhan downs Wine Bush at Randwick – November 7
|Race 4 - 3:45PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
I’m going to be the forgiving type and stay with 2. Revenire who went under as a $1.85 favourite first-up on the back of two very impressive trial wins. He wound up last in the small field and was never going to catch the winner the way the race was run. He worked home well, though not as well as you’d like a short priced favourite to. Pluses for him here are the return to three-year-old company and the likelihood that they’ll run along a little bit at least. Hopefully he can hold a spot a bit closer and he’s definitely good enough to bounce back.
Dangers: 3. Chappo could show Revenire a thing or two about how an odds-on favourite should perform as he cruised home at $1.35 in his only start at Doomben back in January. He’s now with Chris Waller after kicking off for Steven O’Dea and I thought he trialled fairly at Canterbury. He was ridden along a bit there but note Blake Shinn takes the race ride from a less experienced rider. Keep very safe. 5. Star Galaxy won the trial in question over Chappo then had a second trial 13 days later. He won impressively on a heavy track on debut at Canterbury and wasn’t disgraced in two subsequent starts. Soft draw, McEvoy and winkers on. 1. Junglized has responded quite well to being gelded coming into this preparation and fought hard in an all the way Hawkesbury win second-up. A bit more depth in this race but wouldn’t be ruling him out.
How to play it: Revenire WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds), Quinella with Chappo.
Revenire’s first-up second at Canterbury – October 27
|Race 5 - 4:20PM RANVET HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
The tactics employed on 5. The Avenger are going to be critical to his chances but I’m pleased that he’s returning from a two month break at the 1250m start at Canterbury. It’s as long a run without a bend you can get at the tight circuit. He hasn’t settled worse than fourth in his four start career so it wouldn’t surprise if Kerrin McEvoy goes looking for a handy spot with cover. He’s the most promising horse among the eight runners and has been a popular winner of his last two starts. No public trials for him so the market will hopefully help us out and all eye will be on him in the parade. It’s going to take a K-Mac special but he’s the horse to beat.
Dangers: 2. Barthelona just looks to get the perfect run midfield on the fence and comes out of an infinitely stronger race won by Redouble at Rosehill on November 11 where he poked through along the fence to run third. Very consistent and entitled to be in the finish. 1. On The Spot should be up on the speed as he was at Randwick last time when fourth behind Drachenfels. Whether he’s good enough remains to be seen but Tye Angland knows him well and he’s capable of giving a sight. 8. Kawakini generally gives away a decent start and will likely be in the second half of the field, if not the tail. Started favourite behind the smart Star Sensation at Randwick last time, made a dash in the straight then battled away to just miss third. If the race is run to suit her she can show up.
How to play it: The Avenger WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Avenger’s last start win at Warwick Farm – September 20
|Race 6 - 4:55PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
This looks a very open sprint and I’ve quite liked the way 5. Mosrai has been coming along this time in. He roared home late from near last at Port Macquarie second-up and had them covered a long way out at Tamworth last time as he charged away late. It’s not really such a big leap in class into this race and in a field where there are plenty of horses with convictions he’s still on the way up. May give away a bit of a start but he has the confidence up and looks hard to beat.
Dangers: 1. Good Time Charlie was a solid favourite at Canterbury a few weeks back and may have been in the wrong spot as he was held up on the fence early in the straight. He did get going in time but perhaps he’s a momentum horse and needs to wind up. Should be outside horses here and have his chance to hit the line. 6. Eccellere could shape this race. She usually leads but bombed the start at Canterbury last Friday night and that was the end of her. She just went went around behind them. Form around the likes of Best Guess reads pretty well and if she jumps she can take some catching. 3. Hello Schumann resumed with a handy effort at Queanbeyan and in the small field is not the worst.
How to play it: Mosrai WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Mosrai scores easily at Tamworth – October 30
|Race 7 - 5:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
One of the most even races I’ve seen recently with seven ratings points between the 12 runners. They are all pretty well exposed and that makes it a tough betting race. That said, I thought if 8. She’s Magical can repeat her third-up effort at Randwick when runner-up to Our Belisa then she’d be well placed to be in the finish. She generally takes a couple of runs to get going and I liked the way she kept finding the line and holding the rest at bay safely. Should be at peak fitness or near it now and she looks a good each-way chance.
Punters Intel: She’s Magical’s last 600m of 35.84 on soft ground was second only to the winner.
Dangers: 3. Personable has been well placed by Bjorn Baker to get her confidence up and bring her through the grades out of town. She was a 45 rater when she won at Bathurst in June and three wins later she’s now a 68. Well ridden when scoring at 1400m second-up and the 1550m is right up her alley here. Has a good chance to break through in town. 12. Maddison Avenue is probably going to have to be ridden for speed to cross from the outside but if she does get there without too much trouble she can be competitive. Measured up well when runner-up to Istria at Randwick last time and with luck is a contender. 6. Lady Evelyn is a consistent mare and she hit the front a fair way out when runner-up at Muswellbrook last time. Placed behind Istria before that and from gate two she’ll be prominent for a fair way. Have to leave 9. Baysa out though I recommend throwing her in the quaddie. Perhaps she’s not a middle distance horse and she could appreciate the drop in trip and ridden quieter.
How to play it: She’s Magical E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
She’s Magical runs second to Our Belisa at Randwick – November 7