By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Canterbury Park. The track was rated Soft 7 on Tuesday, chance to improve a bit, and the rail is in the 6m position.
|Race 1 – 12:55PM PLUCK@VINERY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
A softish track throws a few races, particularly the opener, wide open and a 6m rail can be tricky too. I’ve very much liked the trials of 8. Signore Fox though I suspect he might race like he trials and get back. That may be problematic on a 6m rail but I’m happy to go with what I’ve seen and he’s been hitting the line in good style. Certainly each-way and just keep an eye on the betting.
Danger: 10. Bold Arial has a small moment of truth here. She’s had excuses in both starts to date in stakes company and a couple of lengths off Fiesta has to be pretty good form for a midweek maiden. Every chance. 1. Pindus was a drifter in betting on debut and loomed to win the race before being outgunned late. Probably has to go back again from the wide alley but I have to have him in the chances. 12. Kara’s Hope is an interesting runner. She had some support on debut in Melbourne in the spring, sat handy but faded. She was buried away in her trial at Rosehill recently and hardly let go at all so she’s a big market watch.
How to play it: Signore Fox E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Signore Fox finishing off his trial fast at Randwick on February 12.
|Race 2 - 1:35PM TAB REWARDS PLATE (1200 METRES)|
Ultimately I think 2. Primitivo will be the best horse to come out of this race and assuming he doesn’t mind the give in the track his class might get him through over the 1200m. Beats Smartedge in a couple more strides on debut then again finished off in G3 company at Newcastle back in September. His trial was a bit on the quiet side but it was against open company and he missed a run last week when the M5 went into gridlock and he couldn’t get to Warwick Farm. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Ridicule has her share of ability but the form guide is a bit misleading about her last start third at Randwick as she would have missed a place had Praahar not thrown the rider in the last 50m. She’ll strip fitter though and is entitled to another chance. 4. Longmu ran up to her handy trials with a sound second behind Southern Lad here and gets the blinkers on this time around. A bit like Ridicule, she needs to put one away shortly. Has claims. I’d be surprised if the winner isn’t in that three. 5. One Fire Beach might be next best though she does have to improve on what she’s shown in two starts to date.
How to play it: Primitivo WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Primitivo’s fast finishing second on debut at Warwick Farm back in August
|Race 3 – 2:15PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
Along the lines of the previous race, I suspect 2. Tangmere will be the most progressive horse in the race and on the back of quite a nice first-up win at Randwick he can continue to climb the ladder. He is a nomination for the ATC Derby and the extra ground will be in his favour. He’s only seen a soft track once and was closing off late here back in October. He’ll certainly be hitting the line strongly.
Dangers: 4. Impasse is a horse that I like a bit and he comes off a dominant all the way win at Newcastle at his second start. Hasn’t seen a soft track but he should put himself on the pace and if he does get through it well he’ll be hard to beat. 1. So You Win comes through a pretty handy race at Randwick a couple of weeks ago when resuming and he was only beaten a couple of lengths by Onslaught. Back to three-year-old company and up in trip appear to be pluses and he’s right in it too. Wouldn’t knock him if you’re keen on his chances. 3. Angel’s Boy threatened to win a race for a while before breaking through as an odds-on pop at Newcastle earlier this month. Jumps to 1550m and yet to see a soft track but typically of the stable he should and in the first half and be competitive again.
How to play it: Tangmere E/W ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Tangmere’s impressive first-up win at Randwick on February 7
|Race 4 – 2.50PM TAB HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
If, like me, you were on 5. Danzie at Randwick a couple of weeks ago you won’t need me to tell you we were very unlucky not to collect. He was trapped three wide on the speed (Punters Intel showed he covered an extra 9m) and working all the way, still loomed up but just couldn’t get past them. Controlled things when winning easily fresh at the Farm and has the chance to do the same here.
Dangers: 1. Miami Dade was very well ridden up on the pace and held off all challengers over this course to break through fourth-up. Rises 4.5kg but will be prominent throughout and is the logical danger for mine. 2. Hand From Above is fitter for a couple of recent runs and he made some ground to be fourth in the same race as Danzie. He’s proven fine on soft ground in the past and should be pretty much at peak now. Couldn’t have him turning the tables but definitely one to include. 4. All But Gone ran a handy enough race when resuming and goes straight to a more suitable trip. Four of his five wins have come on rain affected ground so expect some improvement from him here.
How to play it: Danzie WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds).
Danzie’s unlucky third at Randwick on February 7
|Race 5 - 3:25PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
2. Kennedy goes clearly on top for me and perhaps this is his chance to break through after some excellent efforts of late in very good three-year-old company. No luck two starts back when a close third to Pendeloque then it took Siege Of Quebec to beat him at Rosehill last time out (ran 33.55 his last 600m from Punters Intel). Surely he controls his own destiny from barrier one, he handles all conditions and he’s entitled to go close.
Dangers: 4. Spending To Win is an honest gelding though only has the one win against his name to date. He fleetingly had two until losing on protest to Viceroy on February 2. Only has to hold his form to be very competitive again. 6. Dissolute is yet to win first-up but he’s usually around the mark. Comes off a trial win as he did fresh last time before running a close third at Warwick Farm over 1100m. Capable of showing up but I doubt he’s as talented as his stablemate. 5. Star Crossed has been competitive in all three runs back and comes through the same race as Spending To Win where he battled on pretty well in third. Likes the sting out of the ground so that gives him his chance.
How to play it: Kennedy WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Kennedy is run down late by Siege Of Quebec at Rosehill on January 27
|Race 6 - 4:05PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
Interesting race and I’m playing it a bit safe with 2. Feelin The Love who goes to 1900m for the first time but gives every indication she will have no issues. Very much likes the sting out of the ground and she was closing off hard late behind Jemadar, who has since won again, earlier this month. Drawn ideally, she has the claim and Jean Van Overmeire is riding well at present too. Hard to see her finishing out of the money.
Dangers: 4. Bon Equus has finished 13th and sixth (last) in his two runs back but he showed second-up that he’s just about ready to fire hitting the line very hard when the race was all over at 1550m. He was probably a length or so off running second. Goes to 1900m and is okay in soft ground and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show something. 6. Just Shine is lightly raced and the way he stretched out late in winning second-up at Newcastle suggests he’s looking for every bit of the extra ground. Query on a very soft track though his previous attempts were in New Zealand and he could easily measure up. 1. Cyrus Rocks is very hard to knock with back-to-back wins though he did get a picnic in front here at the last night meeting before holding off Domed. Will roll forward, if they leave him alone he will take plenty of beating.
How to play it: Feelin The Love WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Feelin The Love finishes strongly late at Canterbury on February 2
|Race 7 - 4:40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
To be honest I found this one very tough, so the confidence level is low. 8. Dancers interests me a bit first-up too. Lightly raced filly with two wins from four starts in the spring. She’s had the two trials, both have been on the quiet side so I can’t get a real lead on how well she is going so keep an eye on the market and with the stable firing is worth keeping safe.
Dangers: 6. Oriental Runner beat Gaytime Girl fair and square at Kembla two starts back from the front then went around $1.70 and just couldn’t get past the leader in a BM68 there on February 6. Will be in the firing line for a long way and has to be considered. 2. Sprinting To Win raced quite well last tie in before failing in his final run of the preparation. Two trials have been sound enough to the eye without getting excited and if he can land on the pace as he’s raced best that way in the past he’s a contender fresh. 1. Irithea was a notable drifter first-up behind Ghostly and it's interesting she's come up so short in the market for this race. She does excel with the sting out so that may explain it and she's worth consideration.
How to play it: Dancers E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Dancers winning at Hawkesbury back on October 26
|Race 8 - 5:20PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
I have to go with 1. Serene Miss who showed a lot of promise winning her first three starts, including one here, before beating one home back on December 1 as a $2.50 favourite. She had some excuses that day, behind the leader then became shuffled out to last and almost turned sideways early in the straight. No wonder she threw the hands up late. Trialled nicely enough at Newcastle recently and I think she’s pretty well in at the weights with the claim. The one to beat, moreso if she’s solid in betting.
Dangers: 6. Miss Que defied a betting drift to storm home first-up over this course a few weeks back and track pattern will have plenty to say about her chances. If it is fair to favouring those down the outside she’s a huge threat and she has handled a heavy track in the past. If it’s favouring on pacers she may struggle. 5. My Maher could well be a big improver on her two runs back which have been a bit below par. Key to her chances could be the soft ground and she’s been back to the trials for a confidence booster. Keep safe. 2. Chatuchak failed first-up last prep then put a few nice efforts together before going off the boil. She’s a recent trial winner, handles a soft track and with the stable going well it’d be wise to include her in the chances.
How to play it: Serene Miss WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Serene Miss wins her trial at Newcastle on February 12