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Brad Gray's Tips For Rosehill Gardens (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

3. Black Duke finished last in that same Midway but want to be very forgiving. He was six weeks between runs, back in trip and had to spring in the inferior ground towards the fence. Won a Midway over 1350m at Rosehill prior to his freshen up. Nash Rawiller rides on Saturday.

Dangers: 18. Field Wiri made her run out wide with Peak last start. She couldn’t quite go with him late but has been knocking on the door at this level all campaign. Needs a few scratchings to make the field as the fourth emergency. 11. Mayrose also made her run up the inside through Super Bright’s Midway. Patience is starting to wear thin with her but she might be worth another chance. It’s a similar case for 7. Huon in terms of where he was forced to make his run in the straight.

How To Play It: Black Duke EACH-WAY

Race 2 - 1:05PM JAMES SQUIRE NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000 METRES)

1. Zeyrek won this race brilliantly 12 months ago, coming from last. The gelding was in a real purple patch of form at the time but looks to be building towards something again this time back. Little has gone right for him in two runs. First up he couldn’t angle into the clear in a slowly run race as Newcastle before jumping straight out to 2000m second up in the G1 Ranvet Stakes. It was another slowly run race. It was a crawl. He found trouble once more and should have finished closer. That form through Via Sistina reads exceptionally strong for this. The runners that fought out the finish all head to a Queen Elizabeth Stakes in a couple weeks. What Zeyrek faces here is a couple of steps down from that. Should tag Serpentine into the straight and get his chance.

Dangers: 2. Serpentine was an all the way winner over 2000m at Randwick first up. He owned the race from in front but was pulling away through the line. He maps to get control again. The gamble is whether he is looking for a touch further now, losing some zip with the Sydney Cup presumably his autumn grand final. 9. Renaissance Woman looks to be ticking over well herself. She strikes this third up and is racing like she is looking for 2000m. There was a struck match between her and Zeyrek when the pair clashed in the Craven Plate over the spring. 10. Little Mix is on the seven day back up having caught the eye late behind Osmose in the Epona. Ciaron Maher’s stablemates 6. Cadre Du Noir and 7. United Nations fit in somewhere too.

How To Play It: Zeyrek WIN

Race 3 - 1:40PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS BAILLIEU (1400 METRES)

6. Linebacker is on the second line of betting for the Champagne Stakes at this early stage. The John O’Shea-trained two-year-old still has something to prove on Saturday but he is an exciting colt. The son of Super Seth bolted in at Hawkesbury on debut. It was a midweek maiden but the overall time stacked up across the meeting, even allowing for it being the first race of the card. The runner up, four lengths away in second, subsequently started $7 in the G2 VRC Sires at Flemington, running third to Traffic Warden. It’s been five weeks now since we’ve seen Linebacker at the races but this race has been a long term plan as a second up target and he has trialled brilliantly since then, winning a Rosehill heat. Should justify the hype, and the short quote.

Dangers: The market looks to have the race well cornered with 1. Anode the obvious threat. He rode the speed in the Pago Pago and went down fighting behind Dublin Down. The way he was rallying again late suggests that he is looking for 1400m now. Coleman, third there, has since franked the form in the Golden Slipper. Expected to see 4. Silmarillion go straight to the Percy Sykes. Instead she steps out to 1400m having just missed in the Reisling. She’s a maiden but is an untapped talent still learning. Respect the booking of James McDonald. She is a half-sister to Kementari so the trip looks fine. Her Godolphin stablemate 10. Broadsiding can run better than his odds suggest. He too is still a maiden but can turn the tables on 5. Last Command out to 1400m from the better draw.

How To Play It: Linebacker WIN

Race 4 - 2:15PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS TULLOCH STAKES (2000 METRES)

3. Wymark has put three wins together as he rips through the grades. He doesn’t hold a nomination for the Derby in a couple of weeks but a win in the Tulloch Stakes, which has historically been a great lead up to the 2400m staying feature, surely sees the owners fork out the late entry fee. First things first, however, and that’s winning on Saturday. The son of Savabeel put near ten lengths on his rivals at Newcastle in Class 1 company out to 1850m for the first time. That saw him start favourite in BM78 company at Rosehill and he put away a field of older, seasoned stayers. That particular benchmark race has seen Benaud, Major Beel, Stroke Of Luck all using it as a stepping stone to the Tulloch. None of those managed to win it on the way through.

Dangers: 2. Kintyre comes through that same Phar Lap Stakes behind Zardozi. He too looks well placed out to 2000m now. Has the right form lines for this. 11. High Dandy comes out of maiden company at Wyong but there’s unknown upside to the Ace High colt and he gives every indication he’ll relish 2000m. 4. Fistsoffury brings a different form line from Melbourne. Ran second to Another Wil, beaten 4.5 lengths, before winning over the mile at Caulfield.

How To Play It: Wymark WIN

Race 5 - 2:50PM CANADIAN CLUB EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500 METRES)

13. Makarena will be out to become the first filly to win the Emancipation since 2011. She’s got the right credentials to give it a shake even if she isn’t particularly well treated by the scale. She hasn’t had much go right in three runs back yet has still been fighting out the finish. In the Surround Stakes second up she risked being posted three deep midfield to Tim Clark pushed the button to settle outside of the leader. That early work told late. She then rode a fast early speed in the Phar Lap Stakes last start before being flushed out early in the straight. Zardozi snuck runs up the inside and overpowered her late. The Phar Lap time compared favourably to the Coolmore too. The other big factor in this filly’s favour on Saturday is the likely race shape. Can’t find a lot of speed on paper so from barrier 1, she should get all favours this time. Touch wood.

Dangers: Expecting 6. Vienna Princess to be the sharp improver out of the Coolmore. The weight scale suis her compared to the Group One handicap two weeks ago. She got shuffled back early and never came into the race. Gets onto a good track for the first time this preparation which could be the key. 2. Hinged is another coming through the Coolmore, where she wasn’t beaten far. She has drawn wide but has tactical speed if James McDonald opts to slide forward. It’s been 108 weeks since she last won now. 1. Ruthless Dame jumps straight out to 1500m second up but have to respect that she comes through a Group One sprint first up and wasn’t beaten far. 5. Olentia is on the quick back up after a fair run last Saturday but she is better than that.

How To Play It: Makarena WIN

Race 6 - 3:25PM EGROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200 METRES)

2. Coal Crusher has won four of his past five fourth up. It was fourth up last preparation that he broke the track record in The Hunter at Newcastle. He also broke the hearts of his rivals. The six-year-old was forced to settle outside of the leader 6. Malkovich in the Canterbury Stakes three weeks. He prefers dictating himself. The dynamic changes here with Coal Crusher drawn inside of Malkovich. He was only beaten 2.5L in that weight-for-age Group One won by Lady Laguna. She has franked that form while Think About It and Espiona ran second and third. If there is a little negative it’s the drop back in trip to 1200m. Expecting Adam Hyeronimus to attempt to offset that with an aggressive ride. Many of his main rivals are first up. He’ll be looking to get them off the bit and chasing early.

Dangers: 3. Roots is likely to find 1200m on the sharp side but like the set up for her. She’ll do no work from the draw and should be able to pick her way through the field late which good speed expected. She has won three from six first up. 11. Libertad bounced back from cardiac arrhythmia to run second to Red Card. He too maps to get a soft run from a low gate. The late market drift on 5. Airman suggested that he’d need the run. It was right but he was on the heels of Libertad late. He won second up last campaign before finishing second in the Sydney Stakes. His barrier looks problematic, however. 7. Zou Tiger has trialled well since winning the Carrington Stakes. Suspect 14. Bandi’s Boy runs well at odds. Inclined to risk 1. Hawaii Five Oh and 4. Shinzo at their early prices.

How To Play It: Coal Crusher EACH WAY

Race 7 - 4:00PM VINERY STUD STAKES (2000 METRES)

1. Orchestral arrives in Australia with a big reputation. One of the best three-year-old fillies to come out of New Zealand. That’s saying something as there has been plenty of them. One lesson we have learnt over the years is that the best young Kiwi stayers, whether that be fillies or colts, tend to prove too good for the locals. Last year Prowess gave the Australian fillies a touch up in this race before Pennyweka won the ATC Oaks. Orchestral has been likened to Bonneval. The daughter of Savabeel is not only winning her races, she is annihilating her rivals. She won over 2100m by four lengths in the Avondale Guineas before backing that up with an equally dominant win in the NZ Derby, as a $1.30 chance. The runner up since won the Alister Clark last Saturday to frank the form. The barrier gives her a tactical advantage over Zardozi.

Dangers: There shouldn’t be such a big discrepancy in the price of Orchestral and 2. Zardozi. The Godolphin filly, and winner of the VRC Oaks over the spring, comes into this a last start winner of the Phar Lap Stakes. She was suited by the fast pace up front but won impressively. The Phar Lap has provided four of the past six Vinery winners. 4. Autumn Angel looked under siege in the Kewney three weeks ago but was going away again on the line. She sets up perfectly for 2000m now. The last time she tackled this trip she beat Tropical Squall. Not sure 3. Kimochi is looking to 2000m but it’s worth a try. The gate proved costly in the Coolmore, forcing her to cover ground. She was brave in defeat. 8. Our Gold Hope and 9. Piplup are two up-and-comers.

How To Play It: Orchestral WIN

Race 8 - 4:35PM KIA TANCRED STAKES (2400 METRES)

1. Buckaroo is yet to run beyond 2000m in his 15 start career. He is the class runner here, however. There is no question regarding that. The five-year-old should have finished closer in the G1 Apollo Stakes behind Fangirl first up. He was then freshened up for the G1 Ranvet Stakes, five weeks between runs. The race was run at a crawl and he was outsprinted by two very classy internationals but he was really warming to his task at the end of 2000m. That doesn’t tell us much regarding his stamina as it was a 400m sprint home but he should have bounced through that, so much so that here he is seven days later on the quick turnaround. Can’t imagine this was the original plan, with the Queen Elizabeth Stakes looming, but it looks an opportunistic piece of placement.

Dangers: 2. Military Mission comes through the Ranvet too. He sat outside of the leader and was dropped went the sprint went on. He didn’t shirk his task though and was coming back through the line. He’s well set up for 2400m now third up after two runs over 2000m. The gamble with 5. Post Impressionist is how he backs up from the Manion Cup. He bolted in there. William Haggas’s last two Manion Cup winners weren’t able to replicate their first up runs in the Sydney Cup. All horses are different of course but inclined to risk him in the context of his price. 4. More Felons ducked back towards the inside to win a busy Parramatta Cup where just 0.8 lengths separated the first six home. 3. Ashrun comes off a dominant win in the Pakenham Cup.

How To Play it: Buckaroo WIN

Race 9 - 5:15PM RACING AND SPORTS DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500 METRES)

17. Another Wil has won three from three this preparation and won by a combined margin of 11 lengths. Trainer Ciaron Maher has never hid his admiration for the four-year-old, fast-tracking him towards a tilt at the Doncaster Mile despite still only having a benchmark rating of 83. That rating is quickly on the rise but he needs to win here to book his spot in the field next week. The son of Street Boss controlled the race throughout at Flemington last start, before sprinting home in fast time. This promises to be more truly run but his last start romp was another career best. All indications are that he is a gelding going places. He maps well here, Jamie Kah sticks and he has won a trial at Rosehill to bridge the four weeks between runs.

Dangers: 16. Amor Victorious had excuses for failing in the Ajax Stakes two weeks ago as a $5 chance. He was five weeks between runs and rode a fast speed in the early stages. That saw him knock up late. Can only improve off that. He’s worth another chance. 1. Rustic Steel showed versatility last start, leading all of the way to win the Newcastle Stakes. He crawled in front so was entitled to quicken but that says he has returned as well as ever. 12. Coin Toss won the National Sprint at Canberra first up in good style. He was only beaten 3.5L in a Golden Eagle in his first Australian preperation.

How To Play It: Another Wil WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM HKJC WORLD POOL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

13. Razors is a much improved three-year-old. The penny has dropped. After breaking his maiden first up last campaign he raced his way through the grades, beating Territory Express in a Class 1 at Kembla Grange before running second to Makarena in the Tapp-Craig. It was job done for the preperation. He resumed with a rock soldi third behind Whinchat and Tavi Time. If either of those were in this race they’d be a clear cut favourite. Razors had the job of tagging a hard fit, and flying, Whinchat. He made half a run at the eventual winner but peaked on his run. He looked sure to fade late but dug in to run third and hold the rest off comfortably. Strips fitter second up, maps well with Tim Clark sticking and the prospect of a drier track can only be a positive.

Dangers: 3. Iknowastar is forced to carry 61kg having won four from six last campaign but he looks ready to pick up where he left off. He was made to find the line in a recent Rosehill trial winning it by a space. Willing to ignore his first up record in this instance. He has never resumes over 1400m. It took a terrific performance from Territory Express at Kembla Grange four weeks ago to get 15. Willaidow beat. She lost little in defeat. Prior to that she beat Gently Rolled in Midway company. Hard to beat but well found. 12. Razeta has a knockout hope at odds. He first up run was better than it reads on paper. Might be looking for another wet track but she was only beaten three lengths in a Silver Eagle last campaign. 8. Gringotts draws awkwardly.

How To Play It: Razors WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting

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