By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.
The rail is in the True position and the form has been done for a good track.
|Race 1 - 1:00PM UNSW HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
2. Insensata is monster odds. The Jason Coyle-trained mare has yet to win fresh in six attempts but there is much more to her first up record than first meets the eye. First up last preparation over the Randwick 1200m she was beaten 4.1L in the G2 Millie Fox finishing not far from seventh placed Champagne Cuddles. Prior to that her three fresh runs saw her run second splitting Albumin and Easy Eddie, a close up third over the Randwick 1200m in a BM85 and a luckless third behind Test The World. Not bad for a $41 pop. Throw into the mix that she trialled very nicely at Rosehill recently, running home late, and the six-year-old gets the services of champion hoop Hugh Bowman. She’ll get back in the second half but looks to be a lot of pressure up front which could bring about the undoing of many of those in the market. Scratched from the Razor Sharp for this.
Dangers: 6. Kylease bounced back to her best at Kembla last start, controlling the race from the front and showcasing her best asset – sustained speed! Punters Intelligence reveals a slick first 600m of 34.66s followed up by a last 600m of 34.22s, doing it both ends. The three behind her, headed by Handspun, since ran the trifecta in a race last Saturday. However, when you are a one dimensional leader (and the favourite) you become the hunted (see Burning Crown last week). 7. Terminology will punch up from the fence with Tim Clark on board while first up behind Kylease was only the second time 5. Call Me Royal hadn’t led in his career 13 starts. It didn’t end well. 8. Misteed was set an impossible task behind Kylease first up, on a day where it was hard to make ground, and can bounce back.
How to play it: How to play it: Insensata EACH WAY ($26 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Insensata trialling at Rosehill – December 2
|Race 2 - 1:35PM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1000 METRES)|
10. Maid In Milan is flying this time back for trainer Mitch Beer who had a Highway winner just a fortnight ago with Princess Cordelia. This five-year-old mare won at Cowora first up over 1000m, beating Billabong Bilby, before towelling up her rivals at Gundagai in fast time. It was impressive. She was then tried in metro company lining up against Military Magic and Instant Attraction at Canterbury where she started $9 but found a couple too classy, but certainly wasn’t disgraced. Drops back from a BM70 to a Class 3 and we know she’ll be strong at the end of 1000m, particularly from the low draw tucking in behind the speed and Tim Clark riding. The double figure odds looks generous for a mare at the top of her game and that thrives on good tracks (5:3-0-1).
Dangers: 11. More Euros ran third in a Highway last preparation behind Elm Court but she has returned better again this campaign. In two runs back she has run second to handy galloper Ballitsa at the Sapphire Coast in track record time before easily accounting for Billabong Bilby (there is the tie in with Maid In Milan) and 14. Calescent despite being wide the trip. She’ll be right on speed. Either side of the defeat to More Euros, Calescent has won well. Expect 14. Tallis to lead this field as he did Aquitaine at benchmark company at Rosehill last start. Still has upside only six starts into his career. 2. Zardoro is always around the mark in Highways but will give these a big start while 3. Bombdiggity was a big winner at Wagga first up.
How to play it: Maid In Milan WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) and More Euros WIN ($7) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Maid In Milan last start at Canterbury in a BM70
|Race 3 - 2:10PM CHRISTMAS CUP (2400 METRES)|
Five of these come via the ATC Cup where 3. High Bridge was the eye-catcher with Punters Intelligence highlighting that he clocked the fastest last 600m of the race, spearing along the inside late (34.61s). That was first up over 2000m too. High Bridge is a nine-year-old but a very lightly-raced one and he showed fresh there is still plenty more to come from the former hurdler. He is well treated at the weights getting in on the minimum with top weight 1. Alward compressing the scale. Despite his overseas form suggesting he’d appreciate some give in the ground, High Bridge’s best Australian runs have been on top of the ground where possesses a turn of foot. His fourth in the 2018 Metrop (Randwick 2400m) or second to Hush Writer in the Mckell Cup (Rosehill 2400m), both a good tracks, would win this.
Dangers: This is by far 7. Miss Moana’s stiffest test but she is rock-hard fit, has won three of five this campaign and will be bowling along in front with Tim Clark calling the shots. It’s appealing but she is considerably shorter here in a Listed race than what she won at in a BM70 last start. Alward received an 11 out of 10 from High Bowman to win the ATC Cup having worked his way back into form in Queensland prior to that. Alward rises 2kg though and even more significantly, 400m in trip. The seven-year-old is yet to win beyond 2000m in 11 attempts (albeit running four seconds). There’s enough there to be against as the favourite. 4. Morton’s Fork is having his first crack at 2400m and due a change of luck.
How to play it: High Bridge WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
The ATC Cup – look for the run of High Bridge
|Race 4 - 2:45PM INGLIS NURSERY (1000 METRES)|
We’ve had 10 runnings of the Inglis Nursery and what history tells us you want to be up the front. Seven winners have either led or sat outside of the lead. Irish Bet came from two pairs back in 2017 and that’s the biggest start a winner has spotted the leaders. That leaves me making a case for the Gary Portelli-trained colt 4. Already Blessed. Off his Hawkesbury 800m trial where he pinged the lids, settled mid-race and skipped clear late, he’ll give his rivals something to catch over the Randwick 1000m. The son of Better Than Ready showed plenty of race craft, relaxing in the middle stages of the trial. From barrier 2 expect Rachel King, who rode him in his trial, to bounce straight out to find the fence. Portelli is of course no stranger to two-year-old success, most recently with She Will Reign and Time To Reign.
Dangers: 10. Wild Ruler won’t be far away either from barrier 1 on what he has shown in two trials. There was a lot to like about the way this Peter and Paul Snowden-trained Snitzel colt has quickened late in his hit outs. Always respect the stable’s youngsters as they are so well educated. 1. Encountabull is one of five runners with race experience having closed off strongly at Moonee Valley on debut. Won’t be as far away here from the draw and has trialled nicely since. James McDonald sticks. $600,000 filly 17. Canadian Spice was tricky to get a line on in her trial behind tearaway leader 11. Dubai Star but she cruised to the line with something to offer. 16. Spirituality looks a talent but has a bit to learn.
How to play it: Already Blessed WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Already Blessed trialling at Hawkesbury – December 5
|Race 5 - 3:20PM CES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
We've lost Zaniah which leaves me with 1. Embracer. Embracer ran a length slower than Zaniah at Warwick Farm last start but much of that was due to early tempo. The best part about Embracer's win was being able to give his rivals the slip at the 400m with Punters Intelligence revealing a 10.78s from the 400-200m. The other thing to note about Embracer is that his last 600m was three lengths quicker than Zaniah. He was so strong through the line. What the Zaniah scratching also does is open up another on speed position. There is still a stack of speed and he pays the penalty for his three city wins with 60kg but he'll be in the finish.
Dangers: 11. Superium returned last preparation with a fourth over 1100m in the Rosebud before losing the Up And Coming on protest, where 15. Edison was a luckless fourth. He’ll get this run to suit but he looked to trial much better last campaign which leaves a little question mark over his head. 9. Splintex took the scalp of Exceedance the last time we saw him. He won’t get the luxury of dawdling in front here though, and the wide draw is very sticky. Needs luck, however his task has been made easier by the scratching of Zaniah. 5. Nicco Lad bled last time we saw him. Can run well fresh if the leaders overcook things early.
How to play it: Embracer WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Embracer winning first up at Warwick Farm
|Race 6 - 4:00PM FUGEN CONSTRUCTION RAZOR SHARP HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
3. Passage Of Time was deceptively good first up in the Listed Starlight Stakes, despite the midfield finish. The six-year-old went right back to last from the wide draw, rattling home in 33.27s for his last 600 (with a slick 600-400 of 11.01s to get into the race). That was the quickest last 600m split across the entire meeting. He simply couldn’t have done any more given where he settled. Drawn barrier 3 second up, expect to see him box seating which is much more typical of him. The blinkers were off there and go back on for this. The son of Northern Meteor has always had ability but came of age last campaign, winning three from five including a BM94 with 60kg. He’ll stalk what should be a genuine speed and get his chance. Despite winning seven from 24, he still remains an underrated horse.
Dangers: 8. Signore Fox is a bit of an enigma but his best is good enough for this. First up he won a deep race at Randwick on a soft deck, despite his appreciation for firm tracks, before seven weeks later showing up at Doomben over 1350m. The race was the wrong shape and perhaps he knocked up a touch late. Interestingly, in the three times he has dropped back in trip, he has won them all. Was surprised 5. Multaja hit the line as hard as she did in the Hot Danish given as I had her pegged as a sprinter. Back to 1200m is a tick. Not sure she is going as well as last campaign, however so hard to come in at the price. 1. Irithea ended her last campaign in Group Ones. Her latest 1250m trial suggests she is forward enough. 12. Oriental Runner is racing well out of his grade but there wasn’t much between the Starlight and the BM78 he ran third in last start.
How to play it: Passage Of Time EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
✅ Settles closer
✅ Strips fitter second up
✅ Blinkers back on
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 12, 2019
|Race 7 - 4:40PM QUINCY SELTZER VILLIERS STAKES (1600 METRES)|
It wasn’t an easy watch for those of us that backed 14. Bobbing in the Festival Stakes. The six-year-old settled last pinned away on the fence and didn’t get to the outside until 200m out. The race was over by then. Despite that, Punters Intelligence shows Bobbing still clocked the second fastest last 600m (34.40s) second only to the runner up 7. Live And Free with a particularly dominant close of 11.36s for his last 200m. The knock on Bernie Kelly’s gelding is of course how far he drifts back in his races but he should get his chance over the Randwick mile in a race run at a genuine clip. First up he savaged the line in the Kosciuszko before four weeks between runs and staying at 1300m were against him at Newcastle. Robbie Dolan has ridden the horse once before, for a win. He’ll need the breaks from the low draw but happy to roll the dice at the odds. It’s historically a light weights race for a horse coming through the grades. That’s Bobbing.
Dangers: How do they beat 5. Quackerjack on the back of his run in The Gong? He was enormous after covering ground where the winner broke the Kembla 1600m track record. The answer is though, by kicking up underneath him in the early stages and that’s the worry with 1. Invincible Gem, 2. Gold Fields, 10. Goodfella and 15. Mushaireb all drawn seven or lower. Quackerjack has already won twice over the Randwick mile. The edge might be off Live And Free staying at 1600m third up but this would have been his target race. The barrier will see him get back. 6. Ranier refused to lose the Festival, charging through the line.
How to play it: Bobbing WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bobbing had no luck in the Festival Stakes
|Race 8 - 5:20PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
6. Strome only has to reproduce her last two runs to be winning this. Out to the mile poses no concern, the five-year-old just has to handle the seven day back up for the first time in her 28 start career. The Gary Portelli-trained mare has improved every preparation and this time around she has gone to another level again, towelling up her rivals at Newcastle two back before proving that was no fluke when just missing to all the way winner Toryjoy at Rosehill last Saturday. Punters Intelligence shows she posted a sharp 11.65s last 200m, comfortably the quickest in the race. This is another BM88 but a weaker one than she contested last start. That’s offset by her rising 3kg with Brenton Avdulla, fresh off a four–timer at Rosehill, replacing 2kg claimer Sam Clenton.
Dangers: There does look good speed in this which suits Strome as well as perennial teaser 13. Our Winnie. It looked like she was racing in quicksand until she got to the 200m mark last start. Her last 200m split (11.74s) was two lengths quicker than the next best. Like the booking of Rachel King. 3. Turnberry is very honest and this race profiles well for him, just doesn’t have a killer punch to put a field away. Big watch on 1. Cutadeel. No trials since being transferred to Bjorn Baker but has NZ Group form and Hugh Bowman is booked. 7. Mr Reckless is 2000m back to the mile and draws wide. 11. Matowi gets the blinkers on for the first time.
How to play it: Strome WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"She only has to hold her form to be winning this."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 12, 2019
|Race 9 - 6:00PM TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
There was plenty to like about the way 10. Something Fast closed off behind Invictus Salute first up over 1100m. It’s the shortest trip the five-year-old has ever run over. He jumps straight out to 1400m second up. It was over this journey he had all four runs last campaign which saw him win three of his four starts, one of those beating Wolfe over the Randwick 1400m from the front and a couple of starts later winning from the second half to the field, showing his versatility reeling in Cuban Royale and Asterius. There was even merit in his fifth to Renewal last campaign when racing out of his grade. The 1100m race he contested last time out was only a tick outside of the Listed Starlight time on the same day and we saw Invictus Salute frank the form last week in a BM88. There is money to be made following this horse.
Dangers: 9. Nichochet will get his preferred dry track on Saturday and he did enough first up at Canterbury when leaders dominated the meeting. Ran consecutive seconds to Kaperjack last campaign and did beat Cuba. 15. Zavance didn’t have much luck first up. Might want further than 1400m now but looks over the odds. 5. Echo Jet had the shades applied last start and was aggressively ridden to lead Burning Crown. He was brave to finish third. Peaks now but still to prove himself over 1400m. 1. White Boots resumed last preparation with a third behind Desert Lord and Kolding over 1400m with Billy Owen in the saddle. The key difference could be just the one trial this time back suggesting he isn’t quite as forward. 2. Phiastos’s form might be starting to hint that he prefers wet tracks.
How to play it: Something Fast WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Something Fast first up over 1100m