By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
5. Sur La Mer was desperately unlucky not to win on debut at Newcastle and she did a big job to pick up and dash through to just miss. Fitter for that, extra 100m should suit and with even luck from the inside gate again can go one better.
Dangers: 4. Supremo has shown potential and resumes here as a gelding having not raced since December. Second trial was a nice one, he’ll likely press forward from the outside and is the logical danger. 3. Black Queen is a huge query. Stablemate to Sur La Mer, she was runner-up at her only start in NZ (where she had every chance) and basically was just allowed to follow them around in her trial a month ago. Watch betting for any leads. 1. How Do You Sleep has performed well in both starts so far for third placings at the provincials. Blinkers go on her here and he’s entitled to some consideration.
How to play it: Sur La Mer WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Sur La Mer runs second at Newcastle on April 10
|Race 2 – 2.00PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
3. Bella Rouge was a $600K purchase and she showed she has her share of ability with an excellent trial win at Randwick a week ago, making up plenty of ground without any urging. Should get her chance here on debut from a nice draw and JMac sticking.
Dangers: 1. Billiondollarbaby has the runs on the board from an impressive all the way win over Port Louis at her first start at Canterbury three weeks ago. She’s also an expensive yearling and has to be respected, if there’s a negative it might be coming back 100m. 7. Miss Maz trialled quite nicely on two occasions in March, winning the latest on March 29 in good style. Has the light weight after the claim and is one of many debutants to keep an eye on. 9. Shihonka put six lengths on her rivals when she was ridden up to win a Gosford trial a few weeks back. The runner-up has since won a race and from gate one you’d expect her to look to lead and give a sight.
How to play it: Bella Rouge WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Bella Rouge wins a trial at Randwick on April 20
|Race 3 – 2:35PM ROBRICK LODGE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
11. King High was tested out a bit in the blinkers winning his latest trial by five lengths but did it in good style. There looks to be good speed here but if he can find a spot in the first four or five it gives him the chance to run up to that trial win and go close.
Dangers: 3. Capital Reign did just about everything wrong in winning on debut at Canberra but still held a comfortable margin. Since been back to the trials and performed smoothly on the synthetic. This looks to have some depth but has to be respected 7. Greater Harlem is a $1.15m yearling and he’s hard to judge on his only trial back in January behind Profiteer where he was taken back and not produced at all. Market a good pointer but has gate two and James McDonald to recommend him. 10. Just Strolling failed at his only start at Caulfield on Boxing Day but returns on the back of a couple of trials and with blinkers on. Could be an improver.
How to play it: King High E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
King High wins a trial at Randwick on April 20
|Race 4 – 3.10PM DARLEY 2021 ROSTER HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
2. Shadow Crush was a little disappointing first-up then not disgraced up to 1200m last time beaten a length. Blinkers go on, drawn nicely and his last win was an easy one here back in October. Expecting him to take beating this time.
Dangers: 5. Key Largo will likely get back but he has a decent finish on him as evidenced by his trial win at Hawkesbury recently. Didn’t run a bad race in five starts last time in and he’s one to keep an eye on. 7. The Move is an interesting runner who does look under the odds on what he’s shown this time in. Every chance last time at Doomben from outside the lead. Went back to the trials two weeks ago and won easily beating a stayer and a 27 start Class 1 horse. Finds JMac and a good track helps but otherwise can’t see why he’s favourite. 1. Disruptor is probably the best horse in the race but he is coming off a break of a year since he won easily on a heavy track last April. Recent trial was nice and he’s more than capable of winning if right.
How to play it: Shadow Crush WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Shadow Crush runs sixth at Canterbury on April 7
|Race 5 – 3:45PM RANVET HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
3. Resilient Star showed she’s come back in great order with a very soft first-up win at Hawkesbury and it’ll be interesting to see how she measures up. Won from near the back at Wyong two runs ago and was outside the leader fresh. Good each-way chance.
Dangers: 8. Don Luigi isn’t far off a win, he charged home to just miss at Kembla a few weeks back and while this is a bit tougher he’s found Nash Rawiller to ride, a good gate and it wouldn’t shock if he features prominently. 5. Bravado returned from a long break to go down half a length at Hawkesbury two weeks ago, he did get all the favours along the inside there but will be fitter and his two-year-old form last year was promising. Keep in mind. 1. Falcon had every chance first-up as a $1.75 favourite and was run down after leading. That was a soft 7 and he's since trialled well. Could rebound on a good track.
How to play it: Resilient Star E/W ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Resilient Star wins at Hawkesbury on April 5
|Race 6 – 4:20PM XXXX HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
4. Strawb has been a bit costly but there’s no doubt she’s up to this level as proven last prep with a couple of seconds at this track. Her two trials back have been great and drawing out a little isn’t too bad for her at this start point. Expect her to be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 3. Juan Diva resumed with a nice second to Salina Dreaming, with Rainbow Connection in third, and that’s the form reference for her because she had no luck at all at Hawkesbury last time. She was eased right down when shut out of runs in the straight. Definite chance. 1. Willowheart looked the winner all the way down the straight at Canterbury first-up only to be grabbed in the last stride. Fitter for that, will be up somewhere on the speed and if she gets any favours she can easily go one better. 8. Turnstyle is trialling well for her return. Aside from a heavy track failure before a spell her form is very consistent, she’s drawn to be just off the speed at worst and is capable of fighting it out.
How to play it: Strawb E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Strawb wins a trial at Newcastle on April 19
|Race 7 – 4:55PM VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
8. Mightybeel is very well suited here after a strong finishing second at Hawkesbury when a drifter in betting in a race dominated on speed by the winner. He was dynamic breaking his maiden three runs back and looks hard to beat.
Dangers: 1. Blaze A Trail was an easy winner at his only start at 1600m and did enough fresh with a few excuses. Form earlier in the ear was excellent around the likes of Sky Lab, he draws well and has every chance to put himself in the finish. Read trainer Matt Vella's comments here. 9. Shibli was very well backed when finishing a closing fourth at Canterbury last week and it’s interesting to see him backing up. JMac rides a stablemate this time, that may or may not be significant. Has to be respected. 7. Travest hit the line well from a long way back at Canterbury a few weeks ago and goes into the mix, though he is a lot better with some give in the ground.
How to play it: Mightybeel WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Mightybeel runs second at Hawkesbury on April 14