Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is expected to stay in the Good range with the rail out 6m from the 1600m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. The first event set to jump at 12pm.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Nic’s Vendetta is certainly no stranger to Highway Handicaps having run in eight already! He has won one of those, beating Suncraze at Warwick Farm. Thought this five-year-old trialled brilliantly at Newcastle before running over 900m, again at Newcastle. He was out-sped there, as expected, but he found the line to run fourth. That’ll clean him up nicely for this after his 28 week spell. All three of his career wins have been second up (he has won three from four overall second up) so this looks like the target race given his pattern. He won’t be too far away from the middle draw and should get every possible.
Danger: Ori’s On Fire gets the blinkers on for the first time after being beaten 2.4L by Don’t Give a Damn in the Muswellbrook Wild Card. Hugh Bowman rides and you know he’ll be in the finish somewhere. Just needs to overcome the wide draw but expect Bowman to be positive. Ori On Fire had the measure of Keymaster three runs back but like what we’ve seen from the six-year-old since. He is a winning chance while include Torio’s Delight in in your multiples at big odds. He is going better than his form suggests.
How to play it: Nic’s Vendetta EACH WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Nic’s Vendetta return over 900m at Newcastle
|Race 2 - 12:35PM APN OUTDOOR HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Taking a gamble on Tessera. He hasn’t really gone on with the job since promising so much as a two-year-old but he hasn’t had much go his way to be fair. He just missed first up over this same track and trip last time in before running a luckless third in the Gold Coast Guineas. He has had a tie back operation since we last saw him when a beaten favourite which is some query but he has trialled nicely on two occasions. Should get a lovely trail throughout in an even race that could be decided by whichever horse gets the run of the race.
Danger: Dissolute has his tail in the air at the moment on the back of two dominant wins. He is fit and full of confidence, catching a few of his key rivals first up certainly gives him the chance to make it three on the bounce. Test The World is as honest as they come but we saw her find her level last preparation. Crafty Cop again looked brilliant at the trials but that’s just him. He’s a keen-going horse so the worry with him is where he lands from the draw.
How to play it: Tessera WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tessera’s first up run last time in
|Race 3 - 1:10PM TAB HALL MARK STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Dothraki won his first race in years two back, in the stewards' room, but here he gets the chance to be first past the post. He won’t get a better chance. He is the highest rated runner in the race but gets in the 58kg under the set weights and penalties conditions. Four of his eight rivals come via the Star Kingdom where he beat them, and now he meets them better at the weights so it’s hard to make a case for them turning the tables. It took an enormous effort from Spright, rattling home in sub 11s (Punters’ Intel) to beat him there. Ron Dufficy nailed it in a tweet earlier in the week – if he wasn’t Dothraki, you could mark him very, very short.
Danger: Firsthand is a talent and seems to return a marginally better version of himself with each preparation. He hasn’t been sighted since early December with no official barrier trials which is curious. If he behaves, he’ll be running on late. Star Reflection is horribly weighted getting 4kg off Dothraki when it would be 13kg on rating points but she is going particularly well at the moment and could run a cheeky race at double figure odds.
How to play it: Dothraki WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dothraki being nabbed by Spright last start
|Race 4 - 1:45PM IGA LIQUOR FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000 METRES)|
Temprado has travelled the low road to get to the Frank Packer Plate, with his last four starts all being at the provincials. Mind you, he has won three of them and stepping out to 2000m for the first time at Kembla last start he made a mess of his rivals. The son of Pierro, out of gun mare Majestic Music, looks a very handy stayer in the making. On paper he’s up against it given his key rivals have Group One form, including the Derby, but keen to catch this Snowden-trained galloper on the way through.
Danger: Tangled and Primovito are both coming back to 2000m from the Derby trip. They'll certainly be fit enough, it's just whether they'll be able to dash as well as a few of the others at the finish. Holy Snow was a beaten favourite in the Carbine but he still ran well, slipping home for his last 200m in 11.60s (Punters' Intel). His last 600m was 33.50s. He’s on trial at 2000m but it looks to suit.
How to play it: Temprado EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Temprado’s last start Kembla win
|Race 5 - 2:20PM THE HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB J H B CARR STAKES (1400 METRES)|
Problem Solver hasn’t finished worse than second in seven career runs. Only one of those was a win, with six seconds, but don’t be too harsh judging her off that. It certainly got nothing to do with a lack of desire. Thought she was outstanding when running a narrow second to Houtzen in the PJ Bell last start. She was three wide the trip but still boxed on to miss in a driving finish. Manicure had her back there and dead heated for second, so if she couldn’t beat her under those circumstances, leaves you wondering how she will beat her here. The blinkers come off Problem Solver out to the 1400m to help her relax. She’s so honest and puts herself right there so it’s hard to see her not fighting it out yet again.
Danger: Outside of Manicure, Dyslexic also comes via the PJ Bell and she was very good there hitting the line to only be beaten 2.5L at the finish. Doubt the 1400m will pull her up so expect her to run well. Her last 200m split was bettered only by Frolic according to Punters' Intel. Moss Trip punched above her weight in the G1 Surround the last time we saw her, running fifth only beaten 1.5L by Shoals. Has been freshened since and trialled well at Gosford. One More Honey isn’t the worst at $41 back on top of the ground.
How to play it: Problem Solver EACH WAY ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Problem Solver and Manicure dead heating for second in the PJ Bell
|Race 6 - 2:55PM MOET & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600 METRES)|
The record of Sires' winners in the Champagne is outstanding. Form Focus reveals that in the past 30 years, 21 have tried for 11 wins with a further eight placing. So 19 of the 21 have finished in the first three. History is certainly on the side of El Dorado Dreaming. All that said, I’ve got her in for second behind Not A Single Cent. We’ll never know if he’d have won the Sires' but there is no doubt he would have gone very close. He never got a crack in the straight going to the line untested. The start prior to that, the Caulfield pattern assisted him but he won well enough in the end. He is a half to Happy Clapper so it could be a big spring for the mare Busking!
Danger: El Dorado Dreaming won at enormous odds in the Sires' but as far as factoring in her starting price to the form (which is a big part) you have to be lenient when it comes to two-year-olds, especially when having their first crack at distances beyond the sprinting trips. On face value, she came from last to beat Oohood, who had placed in the Slipper and Diamond prior. Outrageous was very good in restricted room in the Sires'. It was a great Champagne trial and his breeding certainly won’t hold him back from getting the mile – he’s a half to Very Tempting who won last year’s WA Oaks. There’s a sense of timing about Outrageous and we can forgive his VRC Sires failure when he didn’t find the lane on the fence.
How to play it: Not A Single Cent WIN ($5.50 TAB)
Not A Single Cent never saw daylight in the Sires
|Race 7 - 3:35PM SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400 METRES)|
Trapeze Artist hasn’t been on the right side of punters with four of his five wins at double figure odds but his form this autumn in has been very true. He won the Expressway first up from the front before running fourth in the Hobartville and third in the Randwick Guineas. It’s a strong crop of three-year-olds this year (we’ve seen what Kementari has done since against the older horses and the same can be said for D’argento) and they’ve won three of the past six All Aged Stakes. Trapeze Artist was outstanding in the TJ Smith beating the country’s benchmark sprinter in Redzel going to a new peak and he looks even better suited out to 1400. If he holds his form, he wins.
Danger: Another three-year-old in The Mission can run really well at odds. Was very good in the Galaxy with only English running faster splits home (11.60s via Punters' Intel) before hitting the line in the TJ Smith. Was expecting to see him last week in the Arrowfield but here he is, so Paul Perry is obviously very happy with him. Out to 1400m suits now and hoping he can be closer from barrier 3. Tom Melbourne should get a cosy run tucked in behind the speed. The tactics will be the cuddle him up for as long as possible and spear him through late. Showtime can give cheek from the front.
How to play it: Trapeze Artist WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds)
Trapeze Artist’s stunning TJ Smith win
|Race 8 - 4:15PM SHARP JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION PLATE (2000 METRES)|
Arebeitsam is easy enough to find here off a gallant third in The Star Doncaster Mile last start but TAB are still letting punters on at the early $4.20 quote. The Doncaster form generally doesn’t need franking (it’s a Doncaster!) but it’s certainly worth mentioning that Happy Clapper and Comin’ Through have both run really well in the QE since. Arebeitsam goes from the bottom of the weights to the top in carrying 58kg but drops right back in grade and gets out to his pet trip of 2000m. You know exactly what you’ll get from this horse with Adam Hyreronimus steering, who knows him so well – he’ll work across from the draw before putting the pedal down as he starts to enter the straight. Like the wide draw for him as he can roll across in his own time and build his momentum. He is rock hard fit now and it’ll be catch me if you can – tipping they won’t.
Danger: Cool Chap gets a 2.5kg weight swing from the Doncaster on Arebeitsam, and was beaten less than a length. Prior to the Doncaster he was only beaten by Humidor in the Blamey. He is racing as well as he ever has and shouldn’t have any excuses here out to 2000m. Maurus is another that meets Arebeitsam better at the weights for his half-length defeat in the Neville Sellwood. He hasn’t won for a long time but he always runs well around this distance range. Interlocuter didn’t have much room in the Doncaster Prelude – he wouldn’t have won anyways but he certainly would’ve finished closer.
How to play it: Arebeitsam WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Watch for Arebeitsam and Cool Chap in the Doncaster
|Race 9 - 4:55PM NATHAN'S FAMOUS HOTDOGS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
At the odds, I’m with Special Missile to turn the tables on Osborne Bulls from their last start clash. Osborne Bulls beat him fair and square at Rosehill but Special Missile was only second up so has the most improvement of the two and gets a little bit of weight relief (1kg). Most significantly though is that all five of Special Missile’s wins have come when he has either dictated from the front or been able to pinch a break on his rivals at the top of the straight. He didn’t get that last start with a few other runners pushing up inside of him early. That should change here with Savapinski the only other natural leader.
Danger: Osborne Bulls has been beautifully placed yet again by James Cummings. He has won six from eight – with the two losses when luckless at Kembla and a half a length second behind Invincibella and they panelled the rest of the field. He’ll be bounding home again with Brenton Avdulla again in the saddle. Would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from those two but throw Shiraz into any trifectas. He wasn’t flash in the Doncaster Prelude but liked his first up run in the Newcastle Newmarket.
How to play it: Special Missile EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) & Special Missile/Osborne Bulls QUINELLA
Special Missile will need to turn the tables on Osborne Bulls