By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a Soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:30PM RANVET HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
12. Sausedge has found a very winnable race here. The Matt Dale-trained four-year-old savaged the line first up with 60.5kg to suggest she was right on target for Canberra’s National Sprint. She started favourite there but was never a chance given the way the track played, you couldn’t swing wide and win. Forgive her that. In fact, forget she ever ran. She has won six of her 12 starts including three from five over 1400m. One of those failures was last start while the other was in the Listed Canberra Guineas. At her last run of last campaign she won brilliantly over 1400m at Rosehill with Jason Collett in the saddle. That was a BM78 and this is an 88 but not a particularly deep race and looking at her past wins, the wide draw is a big plus as she doesn’t tend to let down as well when inside other horses.
Dangers: 10. Royal Celebration continues to tease but is inching closer to another win. Knocking on the door but hard to chime in at the odds on offer. Couldn’t back him outright but could entertain a saver on the four-year-old. Import 5. Surrey Thunder is a fascinating runner here on his Aussie debut. His fifth to Addeyyb three starts ago sees him command respect. Monitor any market moves.
How to play it: How to play it: Sausedge WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
BEST BET 🚨
"This is what she did at her only previous run over 1400m at Rosehill..."@BradJGray says this mare has found a very winnable race and we're getting $5.50 with @tabcomau @rosehillgardens pic.twitter.com/G1Iscy1F3v
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 26, 2020
|Race 2 - 1:10PM SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400 METRES)|
Keen on the chances of 7. I Am Swerving on the back of his last start third behind Prague in the G3 Pago Pago Stakes. Punters Intelligence shows that the Hawkes-trained colt ran the equal quickest last 600m there (35.66s), the same as the winner. Prague of course went on to run a respectable sixth in the Golden Slipper and is now hard in the market for the G1 Sires. As is Aim, a horse that finished behind I Am Swerving in the Pago Pago. That looks the strongest form reference any of these two-year-olds offer. On debut, I Am Swerving chased Dubai Star home after getting a long way back at Canterbury. The third horse there Jerle was subsequently a convincing winner at the provincials. Can settle midfield from the draw and get every possible. The horse to beat.
Dangers: 5. Return With Honour could have won the Black Opal with any luck. That same case could be made for three or four others in what was a messy race but he started hard in the market, and also finished third behind Prague two back in the Canonbury which ties the form into I Am Swerving. The Fastnet Rock colt seems to be responding to quieter tactics and it’s a good thing he is, because he has drawn very wide. Two roughies capable of running well are 12. Ticket To Ride given her ability to clock strong closing splits and the lightly raced 13. Pink Beau, the stablemate of I Am Swerving.
How to play it: I Am Swerving WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
I Am Swerving wasn't far off Prague in the Pago Pago.@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to break down the merit in the run and make a case as to why he's the two-year-old to beat on Saturday @tabcomau @rosehillgardens pic.twitter.com/lEC4neGgYM
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 26, 2020
|Race 3 - 1:50PM TAB TULLOCH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
6. Pride Of Adelaide brings provincial form but there’s very little proven Group form in this field, as is so often is the case with the Tulloch giving up and comers their chance to measure up. Nathan Doyle has only been training for 18 months but here he is in a Group Two with a horse hard in the market. And rightly so. The son of Adelaide bolted in at Newcastle two back, winning by seven lengths and running much quicker time than the BM66 and Class 1 on the same day. He then started $1.40 at Hawkesbury and won like an odds on pop should. Love the pairing with Tim Clark given the three-year-old’s free-running style. The wide draw suits too allowing him to roll to the front in his own time. Interestingly, the last three Australian Derby winners (Angel of Truth, Levendi and Jon Snow) all ran in the Tulloch, not the Rosehill Guineas.
Dangers: 1. Quick Thinker for Kiwi maestro Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman does bring Group form having run third behind Funstar and Probabeel last start in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes. He wasn’t far off the duo ether with a huge hap back to third. Have to respect him on class and being in the stable he is. Hard to knock him being favourite. This looks a lovely third up assignment for 5. Zebrowski and imagine it’s been the race Team Hawkes have had in mind all along. Has won two on the bounce and pretty effortlessly. Hugh Bowman sticks. 2. Fortress Command is racing like he wants this trip. Hasn’t been suited by the muddling tempos in the Hobartville and then the Randwick Guineas.
How to play it: Pride Of Adelaide WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Pride Of Adelaide at Hawkesbury last start
|Race 4 - 2:30PM IRON JACK NEVILLE SELLWOOD (2000 METRES)|
1. Life Less Ordinary is exceptionally well weighted in this under the conditions being rated 105 yet only giving away 3.5kg to those down the bottom. The eight-year-old ran well in the G2 Apollo first up before backing that up in the G1 Chipping Norton. He loomed into the Sky High third up like he was going to give Master Of Wine (what price is he here?!) a race but felt the pinch the last 200m in the heavy 10 conditions. Perhaps he was half a run short. No excuse now fourth up and having found a very winnable race. Nash Rawiller jumps back aboard for the first time since the G1 Mackinnon over the spring when fourth behind Magic Wand and Melody Belle. In most preparations he knocks off a race or two and this looks the right one this autumn.
Dangers: His stablemate 2. Night’s Watch is also well treated under the weights and is also working his way towards another win. He kept trying on the heavy ground in the Ajax suggesting he wants 2000m now. Can be a tease but has to be respected in this grade with James McDonald steering. 11. House Of Cartier has been forgotten by the market. After her luckless first up run her name was on most punter’s lips. Since then she slogged home into fourth on a very testing heavy track behind Positive Peace. She doesn’t get warm until she gets to this staying trip. 6. Mount Tabora will give another sight from in front while 12. Gemmahra into wider exotics.
How to play it: Life Less Ordinary WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Life Less Ordinary in the Sky High last start
|Race 5 - 3:10PM E-GROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200 METRES)|
10. Diplomatico was a year between runs when powering to the line behind Star Of The Seas first up in very testing conditions in a race where they really ran along. The little query is whether that run flattens him second up but at the odds on offer, banking on it brining him on. There was market support for him there too. The four-year-old burst onto the scene in his first campaign forcing his way into the G1 Coolmore at start number four. Then last preperation he had the unconventional campaign of tackling the Randwick Guineas second up when a distant fifth behind The Autumn Sun. Was scratched from the first race in favour of this, presumably due to the wide barrier, but it’s a vote of confidence from the Hawkes camp that he’ll run a big race in this Group Three. Should settle in behind the leaders from the perfect draw.
Dangers: 9. Villami has the gate speed to offset the wide draw and carve across to the front. The Gerald Ryan-trained filly was brilliant first up in the Fireball holding off Cosmic Force with subsequent Darby Munro winner California Zimbol a distant third. This is her first test against older horses. 4. Brave Song’s last preparation wasn’t as disastrous as it reads on paper but he just keeps giving away impossible starts. 1. Kementari has been gelded and trialled brilliantly (par for him) but is first up off a year’s break and lumps 60kg. 2. Tactical Advantage can bounce back while wouldn’t talk anyone out of 6. Manicure or 12. Handle The Truth either. Tricky race.
How to play it: Diplomatico EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Diplomatico working to the line first up
|Race 6 - 3:50PM KIA TANCRED STAKES (2400 METRES)|
Not thrilled with the price for 9. Verry Elleegant but she’s airborne. The four-year-old matched motors with a world class galloper in Addeybb in the G1 Ranvet last Saturday. Punters Intelligence shows that the race was run at a pedestrian speed in the early stages but Addeybb did run the fastest last 200m across the entire meeting to fight back to beat Verry Elleegant having been clearly headed. All three of Verry Elleegant’s runs this time back have been outstanding, and not just on wet ground. The other key to her form is how she is settling in her races. She sat outside of the lead in her latest run and dropped her head even though the tempo was so slow. Imagine James McDonald uses the speed has shown this preparation to trail 7. Angel Of Truth. Has backed up once before but earlier in her career (Wakeful into VIC Oaks) so it’s hard to get a guide.
Dangers: 2. Mustajeer shouldn’t be the odds he is. The classy import hasn’t really put a foot wrong this campaign and this has always been his autumn grand final. He relished the hot speed to win well first up carrying 59.5kg before chasing home Master Of Wine in the Sky High. 8. Carif’s run was just as good there but was he flattered by the wet track? Three of the past four winners of this race came via the Australian Cup and 4. Southern France fits that profile. Was a dominant winner of the Sandown Classic out to 2400m last campaign. 1. Avilius won the Ranvet/Tancred double last year. There looks to be more depth to both races this year, however and would need a wet track to figure. Not sure what to do with exciting stayer 6. Mugatoo after Young Rascal fought back to beat him in the Manion Cup when $1.85.
How to play it: Verry Elleegant WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) and SMALL PLAY Mustajeer WIN ($8.50) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Verry Elleegant in last Saturday’s Ranvet
|Race 7 - 4:30PM VINERY STUD STAKES (2000 METRES)|
1. Funstar is building a remarkable record and should add to the growing tally of wins in the G1 Vinery, as the market suggests. The Adelaide filly got control of the G2 Phar Lap last start but was only second up and pulled out enough to hold off a very game 2. Probabeel. Excited to see what Funstar can do out to 2000m because off her breeding, it should be her optimum trip. James McDonald won’t leave anything to chance in putting her in the first couple. She has shown in the past she can settle just about anywhere. It’s seven starts for five wins and two seconds for Chris Waller’s rising star as she follows the same trajectory as Waller’s best fillies over the years. Sure, Probabeel beat her first up and pulled a stack of ground off her last start but Funstar was very soft on the line and can only improve while Probabeel was fourth up already.
Dangers: Having said that, don’t think the gap in the market deserves to be as wide as it is. Probabeel will want a drier track than last start as she was out under pressure a long way from home but loved her response to keep finding the line. The 2000m shouldn’t be a problem for the daughter of Savabeel either. She heads to the paddock after Saturday. All honours to the winner of the Kembla Grange Classic 5. Asiago but 6. Subpoened caught the eye from an impossible spot clocking a last 600m two lengths faster than the next best (35.01s). 7. Game Of Thorns and 8. Nudge both raced without luck in that bunched finish. Keep them safe at big odds. Outside of that, 4. Fascino will run a big race given how she savaged the line behind Rubisaki over 1400m at Flemington.
How to play it: Funstar WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Funstar winning the G2 Phar Lap
|Race 8 - 5:10PM JIM BEAM EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500 METRES)|
8. Unforgotten has been exactly that by the market. She’s won an Oaks, and has placed in an Epsom and a Chipping Norton. Her first up stats (6:1-0-0-) don’t flatter but they are deceptive as three of her past four fresh runs have been in Group Ones, two behind Winx. Last time back she kicked off over 1400m in the G1 Winx Stakes beaten a couple of lengths by Samadoubt and Happy Clapper. Her last 600m on that occasion was second to only Avilius. Here she faces her own sex in a Group Two at Rosehill, a track she loves (5:3-1-0), draws a lovely gate and gets the services of champion hoop Hugh Bowman. She pays the penalty for her record at the weights but at the double figure odds, and the way she has trialled, particularly the first of her two where she led all of the way, she’s worth a ticket.
Dangers: 11. Girl Tuesday is another Chris Waller-trained mare that fits into this race very nicely first up. The five-year-old was a brilliant fresh winner over 1400m last time in before running third in the G2 Chelmsford. Like Unforgotten, needs a dry track to show her best. 8. Sweet Deal missed the G1 Coolmore Classic with a stone bruise but given how heavy the track was that day, it might have been a blessing. Still, any setback isn’t ideal mid preparation. Was flying prior to that and can certainly win but she’s well found and will be vulnerable the last 100m. 10. Amangiri has been well supported early on the back of an eye-catching Rosehill trial but she tends to improve second up so might need this.
How to play it: Unforgotten WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Unforgotten’s first of two trials this time back
|Race 9 - 5:50PM CHANDON DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500 METRES)|
2. Star Of The Seas gets the nod over 3. Cascadian due to where they’ll likely land in the run. Star Of The Seas relished the wet conditions and hectic tempo set by Zoustyle first up over 1100m to scoot home over the top of his rivals late. Jumps straight out to 1500m which is some query but the five-year-old appears to come to hand very quickly in his preparations. The Ocean Park gelding took giant leaps last campaign highlighted by a third in the G1 Epsom, albeit with 50kg on his back. Looks to have returned as well as ever on the strength of his fresh win and how he trialled prior to that. With Nash Rawiller in the saddle and from the middle draw, expect him to tuck in behind the leaders no worse than midfield. Second up last time in he went to the line hard held in a race won by Kolding.
Dangers: The racing gods have not been kind to 3. Cascadian so far this autumn. After a very encouraging return behind Special Reward he was pinballed in the Liverpool City Cup before again finding trouble late last start, even though he was never going to threaten the winner Imaging. Now he finds the perfect race yet draws the extreme outside. The positive is that James McDonald legs aboard. He won fourth up last preparation, just beating 14. Dealmaker. On Dealmaker, loved his return and from the cosy draw, he’s a big hope in this. Probably shouldn’t be double figure odds. 12. Maurus is a fluker’s hope of running into a hole fresh so throw him into exotics. Expect 1. Gailo Chop to need this ahead of the Queen Elizabeth.
How to play it: Star Of The Seas WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Star Of The Seas winning first up