Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out 6m the entire with the track currently rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:35PM MERRY CHRISTMAS ATC MEMBERS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Charge did a few things wrong in his only trial, namely missing the kick and overracing early, but liked the way he found the line under a strong hold. This Zoustar colt in the Chris Waller yard, who is producing a stack of classy youngsters early in the season, looks to have a bit of quality about him. Drawn barrier 2, he should get the chance to kick up from there to hold down a spot in the first half of the field. Out of General Nediym mare Queen Of The Falls he has two-year-old written all over him.
Danger: Gongs was visually brilliant on debut streaking away to a dominant win at Canterbury. The third horse there Perfect Pitch has franked the form since and she gave her a galloping lesson. Only knock on her is the price - $2.15 is skinny enough. Orcein looks a horse with a huge future. His best work was across the line on debut. Tipping he wants further now though.
How to play it: Charge WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Gongs ($2.15)
Charge only had the one trial – Nov 24
|Race 2 - 1:15PM #THERACES PLATE (1400 METRES)|
After his first up run you wanted to be on Heliosphere second up over 1400m. Well, here he is. Nobody missed his return where he made a stack of late ground. He stopped the clock at a very slick 32.87s (via Punters Intel) for his last 600m. Gerald Ryan has said the autumn carnival is very much on this colt’s radar. Like the three week gap between runs as it should ensure there is still freshness in his legs to dash home like he did first up. He has drawn 7/7 so he’ll be back last but Kerrin McEvoy steers so we’ll back him in to find a bum in the straight to cart him into the race. Too classy.
Danger: Star Sensation simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race. She was collared late at Rosehill last start after doing plenty of early work to get across to sit outside of the leader. Expect her to be in the first couple again and she’ll be the one Heliosphere will find hardest to gun down. Up Trumpz had no luck at all last start finishing behind Star Sensation and Poetic Charmer.
How to play it: Heliosphere WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Heliosphere charging home first up
|Race 3 - 1:50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Divine Unicorn wanted to hang in at the Gold Coast last start but like the way he let down. The margin to second was narrow but there was a huge gap back to third. As we’ve come to see time and time again with the Matt Dunn stable, they have a great handle on which horses are the right types to target the Highway Handicaps with. Has drawn 10 but possesses early speed so expect Corey Brown to be positive in an effort to slot in somehwhere closer then front than back. This gelding is only three starts into his career so the best is still well and truly ahead of him.
Danger: Annecy looks big odds dropping down to 53kg and the shades going on for the first time. She ran on hard first up over 1000m before finishing only 2.4L away in a handy field at Hawkesbury. The $18 with TAB is overs. Respect Volpe and O’Lordy for the form Highway stable in Danny Williams.
How to play it: Divine Unicorn WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) and WIN Annecy ($18)
Annecy’s last start sixth at Hawkesbury
|Race 4 - 2:25PM ATC OWNERS BENEFIT CARD HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Noire swept home to claim a stylish first up win at Canterbury under lights. This Foxwedge mare has clearly returned in good order and should be afforded every chance in the run stalking what looks to be a genuine speed, headed by Positive Problems. Expect the field to be broken up which should allow Kerrin McEvoy plenty of room to weave a passage nearer the fence. Beat La Chica Bella last campaign which reads well. Flopped at her only previous try at 1400m but she was at the end of her preparation and went straight to the paddock. Give her the chance to atone over the trip.
Danger: Overstep looks to be working her way towards another win while the same can be said for the Robert and Luke Price-trained mare Leami Astray. Would’ve thought 3.2L off Sedanzer would be just about good enough to win this. Won’t get control with Positive Problems here though. Miss Ballantine was fantastic first up but want to see her do it again.
How to play it: Noire WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Noire was a soft winner first up
|Race 5 - 3:00PM NATIONAL JOCKEYS TRUST HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Impavido has been knocking on the door all preparation but the racing gods seem to have conspired against him up until this point. A couple of wide draws cost him dearly at starts three and four of this campaign before he finally drew a soft gate last time only for the leader to go 100 miles an hour and he was left to cart the field up. The one race were he’d have been best drawn wide! He was the $3.20 favourite there so the $6 appears a luxury in a similar field. Did love how brave he was sticking to the task finishing only 2L from Lord Kingsley and Imperial Aviator who have both franked that form line since.
Danger: There hasn’t been a great deal between Impavido and Carzoff in the past, and they meet again here, but Carzoff maps to be given Impavido a couple of lengths head start. That should prove the difference. Mornington is one paced but ridden closer he can improve sharply.
How to play it: Impavido WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Impavido can turn the tables on Carzoff
|Race 6 - 3:40PM BEANIE FOR BRAIN CANCER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Firsthand has been a work in progress for the Hawkes yard but despite this he has won five of his 11 starts! Had his first try at 1400m last time out and he really knuckled down to the task to run Cabeza de Vaca to less than a length at the finish, with the likes of Red Excitement and Testashadow (who had excuses that day) languishing behind him. Was surprised to not see this five-year-old line up in the Festival Stakes last week ahead of a cheeky Villiers tilt. Anyways, here he is in a much easier race. Maps to be close enough to gun down Flow.
Danger: Flow has drawn 1 which really gives Corey Brown no alternative other than to kick up to lead. He was chased down by Redouble first up after trialling particularly well. With 54kg on his back, he’ll be looking to give Firsthand the slip at the top of the straight. Happy to bet around New Universe at $3.30.
How to play it: Firsthand WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Firsthand’s first try at 1400m was a beauty
|Race 7 - 4:20PM MARK HUGHES FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
All of a sudden To Excess finds himself a forgotten horse - $9.50 appears very generous. He has been a revelation for Tracey Bartley this campaign with two wins and three seconds from his five outings. His 1100m stats (4:3-1-0) are just as impressive. He was rolled as a $2.10 pop last start but has no luck at all finding himself posted throughout. He still went down fighting though and he’s much more dynamic on top of the ground. Should be able to find some cover midfield and unleash his big finish to be in the money yet again.
Danger: Single Bullet looked sharp in a tickover trial at Randwick having run three straight seconds over the spring behind Viridine (twice) and Eptimum. The Magic Millions-bound three-year-old looks dangerous down on 51kg after the claim. Bon Amis will carry 51kg too. This grade will be a good test to see where he is at.
How to play it: To Excess EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
To Excess was trapped wide at Randwick
|Race 8 - 5:00PM 2018 ATC MEMBERSHIP OPEN NOW SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
The Hipster is a lightly-raced four-year-old in the Tim Martin stable. He resumed at Hawkesbury after a year off without an official trial and it took handy galloper Marble to run him down, having got his back in the run. Lisdoonvarna ran third there and relished the wet to win at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Punters' Intel sectionals reveal he felt the pinch late suggesting he’ll come on plenty. The Hipster will be riding the speed, has no weight on his back (dropping 6kg from Hawkesbury) and is still untapped. He is a nice horse with a lovely big action and will give this a shake.
Danger: Brave Song scratched due to the wide draw. Waitandwatch is a better chance than his odds suggest and while Lanciato probably needed 1400m first up to be a genuine winning chance, his trials suggest he is flying. Follow him this preparation.
How to play it: The Hipster ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Hipster’s Hawkesbury second
|Race 9 - 5:40PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
The Avenger hit a brick wall at the 200m first up with Punters' Intel revealing he had the fastest 600-400 and 400-200 splits in the race before his last 200m was the second slowest. Was there more at play than simply fitness? Perhaps. Either way, willing to give him the chance to atone. Straight out to 1500m is aggressive placement and it will be interesting to see how the market finds him having been crunched into even money first up. It’s a very winnable race for him on his best form.
Danger: Bastia put 4L on his Port Macquarie rivals first up over 1500m for Kris Lees. That’ll clean him up nicely for a second up tilt over the same trip but in town. Hard to ignore him down on 53.5kg. King Darci is desperate for another wet track. Looks unlikely at this stage though.
How to play it: The Avenger WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Avenger knocking up at Canterbury