By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a heavy track.
|Race 1 - 11:50AM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Dancing Gidget has won both of her starts this preparation and done so in impressive fashion. The way she ran through the line last start at Rosehill over 1400m suggests 1500m is perfect now third up. She beat Toffee Tongue over 1550m at the backend of last campaign. Punters Intelligence highlights that she clocked 34.18s for her last 600m last start, with a particularly strong last 200m of 11.64s, two lengths faster than any of her rivals. The next best was Travest (11.94s). The four-year-old mare loves wet tracks too. The handicapper hasn’t missed her, shooting her up 12 ratings points for her two wins this time back, which sees her lump 60kg. That’s no easy task but with James McDonald doing the steering, she’s the horse to beat.
Dangers: 6. Papal Warrior meets Dancing Gidget 2.5kg better off for a 0.8L defeat last start and warrants respect through that same form line. The gelding is racing very consistently at the moment. 9. Montefilia’s ‘true weight’ in this is 50kg but she carries 3kg more dues to the 53kg minimum. The three-year-old ran exceptionally well against the bias on the Kensington track first up, albeit against her own age. Emeralds produced a similar effort on the same day and has subsequently blitzed her rivals on a fair track. 7. Rothenburg is better than what he offered up last start. He can bounce back. 3. Matowatakpe and 4. Vienna Rain are in career best form.
How to play it: Dancing Gidget WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Dancing Gidget winning last start at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 12:25PM EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
3. Frosty Rocks returns to the Rosehill 1500m having run Lewis to a narrow margin over the same track and trip two runs ago. A repeat of that sees him in the finish again here. He gets in 1kg lighter from that day too. We’ve seen enough of this four-year-old grey to know that he is a control freak. Kathy O’Hara on 9. Noble Joey drawn barrier 1 won’t give up the front easily but that could force Nash Rawiller’s hand in putting the foot down on Frosty Rocks. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as we saw at Warwick Farm three starts ago the four-year-old show brilliant sustained speed to smash his rivals, and the clock. There was merit in Frosty Rock’s last start fourth having trailed the speed before taking off early.
Dangers: 4. Royal Banquet gave his rivals a touch up last start at Warwick Farm and the four-year-old continues to improve each time he steps out. He has won four from five and is in the hands of gun young trainer Nathan Doyle. Now the negatives, this is his first test in Saturday company and although visually impressive last start, he didn’t beat much and clocked near identical time to Threeood. If by some miracle the track stays in the soft range 1. Spencer comes right into play. Just missed behind Man Of Peace last start, with that horse winning again since. 6. New King wasn’t sharp enough over 1300m first up but did enough late to suggest he can get into the money here.
How to play it: Frosty Rocks WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Frosty Rocks over this same track and trip two starts ago
|Race 3 - 1:00PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 PLATE (1800 METRES)|
This race is as open as Sydney Heads so having a throw at the stumps with roughie 17. Treasure The Love. Trained out of Queanbeyan by Michael Sparrow, this seven-year-old mare has won just the one from 26 starts but that win was on a bottomless track at Nowra, scooting clear to win by six lengths. The daughter of Hard Spun has held her own in a Highway Handicap in the past, running sixth behind Gunga Din. There was a tearaway leader in that race, which was on a good track, and she was on her bike a long way from home before finishing off well. First up this time back she got home hard at Moruya behind a fast tempo before presenting at Kembla last Saturday, five weeks between runs. She sat outside of the leader and knocked up late on the worst part of the track.
Dangers: 2. Bajan Gold is so well weighted in this with the race run under set weights conditions. The Cody Morgan-trained six-year-old is 10 ratings points clear of the second highest rated runner, and then after the claim of Tom Sherry gets in with 54.5kg, just above the minimum. He worked home well behind Eiger at Rosehill last start and out to 1800m is perfect now. Hasn’t looked at home in his two past heavy track runs so will be hoping for a soft deck. 3. Group Think was strung up on the fence in that same race and hit the line hard when he was finally clear. 11. Holy Empress is in the mix if he can settle closer.
How to play it: Treasure The Love EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Treasure The Love in a Highway back in December
|Race 4 - 1:35PM DE BORTOLI WINES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
3. Outback Diva drops back to her own sex and finds a race in which she’ll be able to park right on the speed. She motored home to win over the Rosehill 1200m second up on a heavy track before striking a leader dominated race at Randwick. Last start she was shuffled back in the early stages of the race, settling third last and while she made her run at the same time as the winner Poetic Charmer, liked how she was closing that gap again through the line. That makes the drop back again to 1200m a little query but it’ll be a testing surface and that’ll be offset if she can put herself into the race at the jump. Tim Clark is the right man for the job. Have mapped her to park outside of 5. Heart Of The Oak and fitness could prove the difference over the last 100m.
Dangers: Heart Of The Oak beat Positive Peace, who won five straight thereafter including the G2 Emancipation, first up last preparation over 1200m at the midweeks. She was scratched at the gates for the Inglis Sprint which threw her preparation out of whack. Happy to forgive her two subsequent failures in Group company, given that. Has trialled up well and Gerald Ryan will have her ready to go fresh. 1. Wandabaa has been freshened since getting too far back at Doomben. Beat Spaceboy and Misteed in two wins prior to that, handles wet tracks and is well in after the claim. 7. Estrado is hard fit and gets in light.
How to play it: Outback Diva WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Outback Diva last start at Rosehill
|Race 5 - 2:15PM CLUBSNSW WESTERN METROPOLITAN REGION HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
An identical race to this a fortnight ago won by Korcho looks the right reference for this and the best run outside of the winner was the runner up 1. Rezealient. Punters Intelligence shows that the Maher and Eustace-trained stayer clocked the fastest last 600m of the race (33.71s), nearly two lengths quicker than 6. Loveseat. The six-year-old was strong through the line and with Louise Day claiming 3kg again, gets in with 56.5kg. The Sebring gelding had won at the provincials prior to that, easily making the transition to Saturday company. Rezealient lost his way after running second in the 2018 SA Derby but a change of trainers has looked to have sparked him back into form. Only has to repeat his last start run to win this.
Dangers: Lovseat has been teasing punters for a while now this preparation. She is racing well but is lacking the killer punch to put another race away, as we saw at Canterbury second up this preparation. Was four weeks between runs last start so maybe that’s the case to say she can turn the tables on Rezealient. 5. Birth Of Venus wasn’t far away in fifth in that same race and can close the gap on a heavy track, conditions she loves. Albeit she still has to prove herself capable of running out a strong 2400m. 2. Stardome comes back to Sydney with his tail in the air having belted his rivals on a heavy track at Doomben last start and Chris Waller has had success doing this in the past.
How to play it: Rezealient WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Rezealient making ground behind Korcho last start
|Race 6 - 2:55PM SCHWEPPES ROSEBUD (1100 METRES)|
5. Anders got better every start last preparation and profiles like he’ll develop into a Group class short courser. First up he bumped into Peltzer at Kembla Grange but took all before him thereafter, smashing his rivals at Wyong to break his maiden before backing that up with a strong win at this same track and trip on a heavy deck. The son of Not A Single Doubt absorbed a lot of early pressure with Proud Mia running along in front yet quickened brilliantly when asked to go at the 300m having been cuddled into the straight. The time was quicker than what Adelong clocked on the same day, albeit off a quicker lead speed. That was all with 58kg too giving away weight to all of his rivals. This being a Listed race he gets 54kg. Can be dangerous reading too much into synthetic trials but Anders looked exceptional in his latest hit out.
Dangers: 11. The Face put the writing on the wall in his two trials to suggest he’s a very talented horse and he proved that right at Gosford on debut when backed into $1.55. The Rubick gelding trained by Gerald Ryan parked outside of the lead and despite shying late, still held a 3L margin. Would have liked Hurt Money to run better on Wednesday but don’t hold that against him. 7. Shaik has been beaten by North Pacific and Smart Image in her last two. Either of those would be hard in the market if they were here. She has a fitness edge on many of these and handles wet tracks, which is a query with a couple hard in the market. 4. Kumasi is in the mix.
How to play it: Anders WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
"I've got little doubt he'll prove himself a Group class sprinter this preparation."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 6, 2020
|Race 7 - 3:35PM IRON JACK MISSILE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
3. Imaging will run much better than his odds suggest. Resumes as a gelding and although it was hard to get a read on his trials, he’s too talented to be the rank outsider in this. The import was heavily backed at his first Australian start over 1300m first up last preparation but got into a bumping duel and pulled up lame before scooting through the wet to win the Ajax Stakes. There was no hiding thereafter in the G1 Doncaster and G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. That speaks volumes of Chris Waller's opinion of the horse though. He handles heavy tracks and with all of the scratchings, can put himself on top of the speed. Think the market has severely underestimated him.
Dangers: 5. Flit’s 1200m record is exceptional (5:2-3-0). First up last preparation the blinkers went on for the first time, she stalked the speed and won with her ears pricked. Has to transition to take on the older horses now but suspect she will. Like the way she cruised to the line in her trial this time back. 4. Melody Belle is vulnerable first up over 1200m, but she is all class being a 10 time Group One winner and she loves the mud. The wide draw did look sticky in a capacity field but it's redundant now. 10. Eduardo warrants respect but if you like his chances, surely 11. Glenall has to be in the conversation too.
How to play it: Imaging WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
|Race 8 - 4:15PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
10. Tailleur finds a very winnable race to bounce back in having been rolled as the $1.75 favourite last time out. She had genuine excuses. It was the Kensington meeting where you needed to be nailed to the fence and she raced without cover for much of the race. That was despite jumping in front from barrier 4. Would expect the instructions to be to use her speed now third up to park in the first two. The four-year-old goes up slightly in grade but slips down to 54kg because of it and this isn’t a deep race. In her start prior to that she knuckled down to nail Switched on the line, running the fastest closing splits across the entire meeting. That was of course after smashing the clock, and her rivals, at Gosford back in January on debut. Well placed to atone.
Dangers: 6. Minted looks cherry ripe now out to 1200m given how strong he was through the line at 1100m behind Varda a fortnight ago. That was on the back of a seven week freshen having won so well at Newcastle first up so he can only improve again. Untried on a heavy track but his pedigree, and last start run, suggests he’ll handle it. 3. Golly I’m Lucky is airborne for Theresa Bateup rattling off huge finishes to win his last three starts. Hasn’t measured up in city class in the past but has never been in better form and deserves his chance now.
How to play it: Tailleur WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Tailleur last start on the Kensington track
|Race 9 - 4:55PM TAB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
7. Partners had company up front last start and was impressed by the way the five-year-old kept finding, while the other leader tailed off last. Varda grabbed him late to win by a length but she is a very talented mare, having won three straight, and would be a short priced favourite if she was lining up in this. That was 1200m back to 1100m too. Two kilo claimer Brock Ryan reunites with Partners having rated the horse perfectly two runs ago and brings the weight of the Nicconi gelding down to 53.3kg. He’ll be let rip out in front and although there is no shortage of speed, both 1. Discharged and 8. Fender both present first up, while Partners is rock hard fit. Scott Singleton signalled that Partners worked the best he ever has this week too. Read Singleton's thoughts on Partners.
Dangers: Discharged has been gelded since we last saw him. He is untried on anything worse than a good track but wasn’t far away from Diamond Thunder and Hightail at Wyong last preparation before giving a sight in the Listed Gosford Guineas. The four-year-old won either side of those runs too. Fender is undefeated but this is his stiffest test. Needs to take another step but certainly has the scope to, especially given how well he trialled at Tamworth recently. 9. Valdostana is a chance but looks too well found in early markets.
How to play it: Partners WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Partners last start behind Varda
All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday