By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:45PM ADAM GARDINER FUND JOURNEY (2400 METRES)|
2. Shakespear’sgalley was a two miler when trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien which is the knock on the import. He is dour, very dour. Typically that’s a big negative in Australia given the sit-sprint nature of our races but a wet track and 2400m might see him get away with it. He did start $7.50 when second to Il Paradiso back in July 2019 (albeit beaten 12 lengths!). The six-year-old hasn’t done much in his two trials but expectations were low in 1200m hitouts. The blinkers go on for this first up tilt and if any trainer can pull this off, it’s Gai Waterhouse, along with co-trainer Adrian Bott. Expect Brenton Avdulla, who has ridden the horse in trackwork, to be aggressive and turn the race into test of stamina. It’ll be no mean feat when you throw into the mix a year on the sidelines but at the price, the reward might outweigh the risk.
Dangers: 6. Miyake was only 1.5L off She’s Ideel and Archanna last start over 2000m. That stacks up well for this. He looks ready to win fourth up but the wet track is the knock. His best form, albeit off limited exposure, has been on top of the ground which is no surprise given his Japanese breeding. The timing looks right for 1. Approach Discreet to have a shot at 2400m for the first time. Closed off okay behind Archanna last Saturday. 3. Parry Sound scrambled home in a midweeker last start making it two on the bounce. He’s in winning form but has been cuddled too tightly in early markets. 4. He Runs Away also brings winning form to the table.
How to play it: Shakespear’sgallery EACH WAY ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
It was hard to get a guide on Shakespear’sgalley from the trials
|Race 2 - 1:20PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Obelos travelled to the turn like the winner in a Highway Handicap last start but emptied out the last 150m to run seventh, beaten 4L by Amy’s Shadow. The times home suggest it was a test late so there’s the excuse for Obelos. He just went a touch too quick in the middle stages. He was well supported in betting too. The six-year-old has been freshened up since, going to the line with Spirit Ridge in a Warwick Farm barrier trial. Prior to that, Obelos won at Kembla Grange at big odds having taken a sit and darted through the pack late. Three subsequent winners have come out of that race. Goulburn-based trainer James Ponosby chalked up his first city winner a fortnight ago, winning a Highway with Proven Class.
Dangers: 1. Wichita Warrior is the class runner, hence the top weight but can he give them all a head start and round them up with 59.5kg? That’s what confronts Keith Dryden’s gelding from the outside draw. He found the line nicely first up over 1200m at Canberra. Last start provincial winner 7. Lucky Banner is building a terrific record and is racing like the 1500m will suit now. 8. Charmmebaby sets up well from the inside draw and only has to hold her form to finish in the money again. She’s never raced better. Nor has 2. All Over Magic. If he finishes off like he did at Port Macquarie last start, he is a player here and he was only beaten 1.4L by Lucky Banner prior to that.
How to play it: Obelos EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Obelos trialling at Warwick Farm
|Race 3 - 1:55PM QUINCY SELTZER HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
4. Petronius should get complete control looking at the make up of this field. Like the pairing with aggressive rider Nash Rawiller too. The Gary and John Moore-trained four-year-old was nailed late by 3. Fortress Command last start at Warwick Farm when an odds on favourite but Navy Cross made a nuisance of himself throughout which left Petronius vulnerable late. That’s the way it played out with Petronius wanting to lay out in the straight too. Nash will be having none of that. It’s been four weeks since we’ve seen the front-running type but he’s fourth up now so should be fit enough to get away with that. Prior to last start, Petronius finished fourth in a blanket finish at Randwick alongside Icebath and Criaderas.
Dangers: 2. Dancing Gidget comes out of two very slowly run races so her runs have been a lot better than they read on paper. Prior to that she beat Nimalee and Vegas Jewel over this track and trip. Unfortunately for this mare though is that she looks to have struck another race with little to no pressure up front and she’s drawn to be out the back. Fortress Command resumed a gelding when beating Petronius before finding Randwick too wet last start behind Icebath. He can bounce back in a very winnable race.
How to play it: Petronius WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Petronius last start at Warwick Farm
|Race 4 - 2:35PM DRINKWISE COUNTRY CLASSIC (2000 METRES)|
It looks to have been a very targeted preparation to get 1. Express Courier here fourth up out to 2000m. It’s significant to note that this race is run under set weights conditions so the higher-rated runners are exceptionally well treated, including this gelding. Then throw into the mix Tom Sherry’s 2kg claim on top of that. The Keith Dryden-trained five-year-old has returned in exceptional order, sweeping home from last to win over 1300m first up before giving his rivals a galloping lesson at Canberra third up out to the mile. The son of Foxwedge is two from two out to 2000m. He hands all surfaces, only peaks now and draws perfectly to stalk the speed forward of midfield. Can only see him running well given the set up.
Dangers: 12. Rent A Rock mightn’t have the class of some of his rivals but there’ll be no fitter horse here, with the four-year-old on a four day back up after winning at Goulburn on Wednesday. He’ll make his own luck and won’t go down without a fight. 15. Proven Class beat him last start but the fast early speed played into his hands. 14. Amy’s Shadow also has form around Rent A Rock and all indications are that she’ll relish the 1800m. Draws to be much closer in the run. 9. Total Recall is hard to knock, winning four of his past six. One of those failures however, was on a wet track at Rosehill. Paul Messara has the son of Animal Kingdom airborne though. 6. Bajan Gold and 7. Fast Talking can show up too.
How to play it: Express Courier WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Express Courier winning at Canberra last start
|Race 5 - 3:15PM KIA HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
2. Stockman just missed last Saturday behind Elaborate on a deteriorating Randwick track. The race set up perfectly being fast run in the early stages but the four-year-old was strong late. That was second up staying at 1400m. Now he presents third up on the back up, which has always been Joe Pride’s plan with the progressive stayer, out to 1800m. Expect the son of Tavistock to flatten out a touch now as far as speed in his legs but what won him races in town last campaign out to 2000m and beyond was his ability to sustain his closing speed. That’s where jockey Sam Clipperton staying on is of huge importance. He’ll know exactly when he needs to get on his bike to give Stockman the chance to click through his gears.
Dangers: 9. La Gai Soleil, like Stockman, also has plenty of upside. This four-year-old has been beautifully placed by John O’Shea, winning four of her six starts. Winning is becoming a habit for her and she scored a dogged victory first up, albeit in a race that was just fair on the clock. 3. Vegas Jewel’s form is rock solid for a race like this and the trip, gate and set up shouldn’t leave her without any excuses. Both 12. Luvoir and 6. Time Raid are in career best form and have found the right race to transition into Saturday company. Could import 1. Bebeautiful be the big improver second up out to a staying trip? Monitor betting.
How to play it: Stockman WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Stockman going down a nose last Saturday
|Race 6 - 3:55PM GOLDEN GIFT (1100 METRES)|
With Enthaar in the paddock, 2. Captivant is the best-performed two-year-old we’ve seen in Sydney. Up until this early point in their careers, of course. The Capitalist colt put a space in his rivals on debut in the Victory Vein and all of that dominance came with a powerful last 200m. The leaders backed off in the middle stages of the race so it wasn’t set up for Captivant to be as dominant as he was. Punters Intelligence further reveals that the winner’s last 200m of 11.35, was a length quicker than the next best in the race and watching the replay you’ll notice that he only levelled up at the 100m mark before shooting clear through the line. Should relish 1100m off that and with Peter and Paul Snowden at the helm, he’ll get every chance to realise his potential. The training duo finished first and third in this race last year. Unknown in the wet is the only query.
Dangers: Big watch on Hawkes-trained debutant 7. Hunnam. The fact the colt lines up here on debut raises a flag already. Trialled alongside 4. Athelric in his one hit out and more than held his own, with Athelric running fourth in the Breeders’ Plate. Gives away race experience but the half-brother to Ice In Vancouver warrants respect, particularly from a soft gate. 1. Ghostwriter won over 1100m on debut in Queensland which is a great grounding for this. 10. Mura Mura covered ground on debut but wasn’t beaten far. Want to be against 8. Sneaky Five at the early price. She won on debut at Moonee Valley but there’s a question mark over the strength of that race.
How to play it: Captivant WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
What made Captivant's debut win so impressive?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 5, 2020
|Race 7 - 4:35PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HOT DANISH STAKES (1400 METRES)|
3. Positive Peace bounced back in the Nivison last start having underperformed in the Angst Stakes the start prior. Her first and second up runs were much better than they read on paper as the five-year-old didn’t have any luck from inside draws. Despite being 1600m back to 1200m in the space of two weeks the daughter of Stratum still had the toe to sit outside of the lead, taking full advantage of the deteriorating Randwick surface. Sure, the 1200m there raced more like 1300 or 1400m at that point of the race meeting but she is going to get another wet track come Saturday. The set weights conditions also play into her hands, being a winner of nine from 22. Map-wise she gets a cart across from stablemate 5. Irithea, drawn to her immediate inside.
Dangers: 10. Wandabaa probably should have beaten Positive Peace last start if she got out a stride or two earlier. It’s incredible how consistent this mare is! She has missed the top three just twice in her 17 start career (and one of those was a fourth). She’s another that grows a leg on wet tracks. 1. Savatiano is brilliant when she’s on, but it’s getting hard to pinpoint when that’ll be. Hasn't won on a heavy track but the fact that Godolphin run her here does suggest they are confident she'll get through it.
How to play it: Positive Peace WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"She only has to hold her form to win again."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 5, 2020
|Race 8 - 5:20PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
1. Frosty Rocks won three from eight last preparation and when it all falls into place for the free-rolling grey, he is very hard to run down at this level. Staying in BM78 grade, the four-year-old creeps up in the weights but after the 2kg claim of Tom Sherry he gets in with 59kg. From what we’ve seen from the Bjorn Baker-trained gelding in his 13 start career, he is a control freak. The map is crucial to his chances. His asset is his cruising speed. Drawn barrier 2, Frosty Rocks does look the leader. First up last campaign he won well over 1100m before three starts later smashing the clock when winning by the length of the straight at Warwick Farm over 1300m on a wet track. Looms set to roll through the grades this time back.
Dangers: 11. Promotions was a third up winner of the Canberra Guineas last preparation and trends the same way here having split two subsequent winners last start (Enchanted Heart and Atlantic King). The drier the better for 2. Oxford Tycoon , dropping back from a strong BM88 second up. 10. Shock Alert will run better than his odds suggest. Wasn't far off Positive Peace first up last campaign on a soft 7.
How to play it: Frosty Rocks WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
The last time we saw Frosty Rocks at the race
|Race 9 - 6:00PM CHANDON HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
14. Turnstyle is the lightly-raced improver in the field, where plenty of her rivals have their convictions. The four-year-old was taken back to last from a wide draw first up at Kembla Grange and like how she found the line. She'll come on from that and could lead this field given the lack of pace after scratchings. We've seen her win from in front in the past. Was well beaten in her one previous run on a heavy track but it was behind Rubisaki and she did a stack of work circling the field. The run was quite good all considered. Would be surprised if she didn't run top three.
Dangers: 9. Trajection won four races last campaign and like the way she has trialled this time back. The four-year-old was a big winner at Hawkesbury first up over 1300m last preparation, albeit in Class 1 company. Didn’t look comfortable on heavy tracks at his last two runs, both in town, so she’s another that wants the track to improve. 8. Misteed gets the blinkers on and draws to be within striking distance of the leaders. 6. So Taken possesses the ability to win a race like this.
How to play it: Turnstyle WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT