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Rosehill Winners - Tips For Saturday 5th December

By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

The rail is out 4m and the form has been done for a good track.

Race 1 - 1:10PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

6. Kiku was backed as if she was unbeatable last start at Rosehill and the Chris Waller-trained galloper did right by punters, strolling in at even money. That was the three-year-old filly’s first win but she’d been around the mark in her three runs prior so not scoring her down due to her coming out of maiden company. On debut she split Panna Cotta and Selburose while at her second start she ran third to Bellevue Star and Elizabeel. Those form lines have stacked up since. Like that James McDonald sticks given the duo combined last start, where Kiku dashed home in a sharp 33.82s last 600m. McDonald was positive on that occasion, slotting in from the wide draw, so would expect similar aggressive tactics in the early stages here. Well placed to win again.

Dangers: 2. Cultural Amnesia got a breather between the 600-400m first up which allowed him to really run through the line late to post a dominant win. His last 200m split was the quickest in the race, despite leading throughout (Punters Intelligence). It all comes down to how much control he gets in front again. 4. Black Duke was doing his best work late over 1000m last start and can figure in this, providing he can hold a spot from the inside draw. 7. Zoumist next best on the back of a win where she overcame traffic problems.

How to play it: Kiku WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Kiku winning comfortably last start

Race 2 - 1:45PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

7. Toscanini deserves a crack in town now having been so dominant in two provincial wins first and second up for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. The three-year-old had shown glimpses of ability prior, which included a Listed placing at Doomben, albeit in a feature race with questionable depth, but has clearly returned lengths better than what we’ve seen from him in the past. The Fastnet Rock colt trailed a hot speed at Hawkesbury last start before putting his rivals away. The time was quick, due to the early tempo, which sets him up nicely third up out to 1500m. Barrier 2 gives Regan Bayliss, who rode Toscanini last start, plenty of options. The most likely scenario sees him taking a sit behind 8. Ellsberg. Should get the run of the race.

Dangers: Ellsberg gets the blinkers (near side) on for the first time. Can hit a flat spot in his races before surging again through the line. Looks to match well with Tim Clark. 3. Papal Warrior can only improve on what he did at Rosehill a fortnight ago where he was beaten 1.1L in a BM72 with 59kg. That was first up for nine weeks. Races in the same company here and jumps straight out to 1500m. Has a second to Montefilia to his name over this track and trip. How much do we read into James McDonald riding 6. Joliette as opposed to any of Chris Waller’s other runners? The early market says plenty.

How to play it: Toscanini WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Toscanini winning at Hawkesbury last start

Race 3 - 2:20PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

6. Eva’s Deel comes out of a very messy Highway Handicap where a case can be made for four or five unlucky runners but Eva’s Deel was arguably the stiffest of the lot. The four-year-old mare trained by Dubbo-based trainer Kody Nestor was held up for much of the straight before motoring through the line when she finally saw a glimpse of daylight. Not a lot has gone her way this campaign with a wide barrier to blame for her sixth prior to that in yet another Highway. Drawn barrier 3, Mathew Cahill, who rode her last start, could be a couple of pairs closer. We have seen her settled as close as third in the past, second up on her home track back in October, but it looked to dull her big finish. If she can camp midfield and get an uninterrupted run at those in front of her, she’ll take holding out.

Dangers: The market has found 4. All Over Magic from that same Highway but missed 2. Cryptic Jewel. There is no way she finishes 13th with clear running. She was switched back to the inside at the top of the straight but was confronted by a wall of horses. It was a glimmer form, having done very little prior. Racing like she wants this trip now. 8. Can Do It bolted in at Wyong last start running faster time than the BM64 at the same meeting. Maybe it has all finally clicked for the Jean Dubois-trained colt. 3. Proven Class has to be respected off her consistent run of form but is dropping back in trip while 1. Deadly Class rates a mention too.

How to play it: Eva’s Deel WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Eva’s Deel and Cryptic Jewel were both luckless last start

Race 4 - 2:55PM DE BORTOLI WINES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

Happy to play 2. Wairere Falls at the odds. One of Chris Waller’s five runners in the race. The four-year-old has won two of his past three starts, with his latest effort a fourth behind Bigboyroy and Air To Air at Kembla Grange over 1500m. Knight (a subsequent Gosford winner) led at a good clip so it was set up for Wairere Falls to close off hard late but the way he hit the line suggests he wants this trip now. It was his third run in a row at 1500m. Kerrin McEvoy won’t have much choice other than to ride him in the second half from the wide draw but if he can get a cart into the race turning for him, expect him to be in the money at near double figure odds.

Dangers: Stablemate 8. The Elanora is no doubt the horse to beat on the back of a Group Three wins in the Spring Stakes, fighting hard to hold off High Supremacy. Gets the services of James McDonald now. Has a wide draw to overcome, which is the only knock. Tactics will be crucial but does have the speed to roll forward. 11. Namazu closed off hard in the Spring Stakes with his last 200m (11.74) comfortably the quickest in the race. That sets him up well out to 1800m, and with the blinkers going back on. Meets The Elanora 3kg better off too, carrying just 53kg here. 6. Atlantic King comes through the same race as Wairere Falls while 12. Dhakuri perhaps has the most upside of any runner here.

How to play it: Wairere Falls WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Wairere Falls at Kembla Grange last start

Race 5 - 3:35PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Edison absorbed a lot of pressure last start at Newcastle yet still fought out the finish. He was gunned down by Through The Cracks in a BM88 that had more depth than this one. In behind him were Chat, Hilo, Two Big Fari and Royal Celebration. Prior to that the four-year-old was again only beaten a narrow margin (with Through The Cracks and Inanup behind him), despite being first up on a testing Randwick heavy track. The son of Fastnet Rock has returned as well as ever, if not better. The barrier looks a touch awkward on paper but Josh Parr, who has ridden him in his past two starts, will put the foot down early to cross or camp outside of the leader pending how aggressive the tactics are on 1. Special Missile. Absolutely ready to win third up.

Dangers: 7. Enchanted Heart was denied a hat trick by Great News last start, with that mare franking the form at Rosehill last start in running second to Two Big Fari. Jumps up a grade here which is the challenge that confronts her. She easily accounted for 10. Bigboyroy but he was first up, has won since and meets her 3.5kg better off. Got the perfect run to win at Kembla last start but maps to settle one-out one-back again. Special Missile always improves the deeper he gets into a preparation, and his trials suggest he’ll need the run but he’s a massive price given he started single figure odds in Listed races over the winter.

How to play it: Edison WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 6 - 4:15PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

10. Proletariat moved into the race like the winner at Kembla Grange last start before emptying out the last 100m. No excuses fitness-wise now fourth up for the former Kiwi trained by Joe Pride. That looks the right form reference with 7. Accountability and 13. Significance opening the early favourites. Is the market discrepancy warranted? The argument against is that Proletariat did SP $51 and had two duck eggs next to his name from two ordinary runs prior. He won three in a row at Awapuni and looked a stayer of some promise. All three of those wins were over 2100 and 2200m so it could be as simple as he hasn’t even got warm over 1400m and the mile. Brenton Avdulla sticks with six-year-old having ridden him last start and should be able to park the son of Niagra in the first half. It’s a leap of faith but suspect this race is a lot more open than the early market suggests.

Dangers: Accountability won on protest last time out while prior to that was given a charmed ride by Cejay Graham. The five-year-old is obviously flying but has he been flattered by certain circumstances? Relucent to dive in at shorter than $4. 6. Gone Bye stacked his rivals up at Canterbury last start before winning comfortably. 5. Vegas Jewel goes from an apprentice to Hugh Bowman. She has been up a long time but she’s back in grade and another win isn’t far off. Through that Accountability race also comes 13. Significance and 15. Karmazone.

How to play it: Proletariat EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Proletariat finishing behind Accountability last start

Race 7 - 4:55PM MEMBERS CHRISTMAS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

Can’t find a stack of speed in this contest which makes those that can settle on pace very dangerous given the Rosehill 1100m. Enter 4. Single Bullet. This enigmatic sprinter is a handy galloper on his day and resumed last preparation with a narrow second to Inanup. That was on a heavy track and first up after a year on the sidelines. Forget his two runs thereafter as that effort clearly knocked the stuffing out of him. This time back he is only eight weeks between runs and gets back on top of the ground. The six-year-old is typically a strong trialler but loved his action as he strode clear to win a recent Rosehill heat, where Snitz ran second. It was daylight third. Tactics will be interesting from the inside draw and 3kg claimer Cejay Graham riding but don’t be surprised if he leads. Was scratched from last’s week’s Starlight Stakes for this.

Dangers: Happy to forget 8. Pandemic ever ran last start. He was wide the trip and is much better suited back to 1100m. That said, he’s extremely well found by the early market. Pandemic has beaten home 3. True Detective in both of their previous meetings but True Detective was a touch unlucky in one of those. Just not sure where he’ll get to from the wide draw. Can win if the breaks go his way though. 13. Hulk is up in grade but is flying. Keeping him to 1000m and 1100m has got the best of the four-year-old. 10. Mo’s Crown was a dominant winner last start but is back in trip and draws awkwardly. 5.Poetic Charmer will be rushing home at odds. Can make a little case for 1. Royal Witness too.

How to play it: Single Bullet EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Single Bullet winning a recent Rosehill barrier trial

Race 8 - 5:35PM QUINCY SELTZER HANDICAP (1350 METRES)

2. Invinciano is a big, strong mare that needs galloping room. She’ll put herself on speed from the low draw and off a nine week break, should have enough residual fitness to see her competitive. She ended last campaign with a bang, winning two on the bounce with the latest of those a particularly dominant win. Now a mature five-year-old, wouldn't be surprised if she kept on improving further either. Typically of Joe Pride-trained horses. The other key to her chances in what looks one of the trickier races across the Rosehill meeting is where she'll settle. There doesn't look to be a lot of speed outside of 13. Vitesse, especially after Turnstyle didn't gain a run, which could see this even BM78 on speed dominated.

Dangers: 11. Selica was patchy last preparation when trained by Phillip Stokes but she has trialled sweetly ahead of her first start for Annabel Neasham. Continue to monitor the market for any further support. 10. Miss Redoble posted one of the quickest last 600m splits of the meeting last start despite running eighth. She just keeps missing the start! Always a knockout hope with a finish like that though. 8. St Covet's Spirit maps to give them all a start from a horror draw but she's too classy to dismiss in this grade, especially at the price. 3. Sausedge and 4. Think Free both raced without luck last start.

How to play it: Invinciano WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 9 - 6:10PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Golly I’m Lucky’s first up fifth at Kembla Grange was much better than it reads on paper. We’ve seen enough of this six-year-old to know his get-back racing style leaves a lot to chance but he possesses a monster finish and that was again on display a fortnight ago when clocking 33.37s for his last 600m (Punters Intelligence). That was two lengths faster than the next best in the race. He just became detached from the field. It was mission impossible. He has been tried twice in town before, coincidentally both at Rosehill, but differing factors contributed to poor showings. The 1500m and then a heavy track. A dry track and 1200m doesn’t leave any excuses. He’ll need a genuine tempo up front to win but we’re getting a price to take that gamble and love the pairing with Jason Collett.

Dangers: 10. Dunbrody Power is flying this time back. She just found a leader-dominated race at Kembla last start but like how she ran through the line. The John Thompson-trained mare has clearly come back as well as ever. Even with Big Parade scratched, there looks enough pressure up top for backmarkers to get their chance. 3. Oxford Tycoon is a capable sprinter on his day and maps to get the run of the race. He looks to be the one that the market has overlooked. He can bounce back on top of the ground off a four week freshen. 12. Rammstein looks the best of the on pacers but the market definitely hasn't missed him.

How to play it: Golly I’m Lucky WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday

 

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