Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is back in the True position with the track rated in the Good range. There are showers forecast for Saturday morning.
|Race 1 - 12:05PM LACK GROUP - WEST TRADIES PLATE (1100 METRES)|
Neutrality did everything right in his Wyong trial win, bouncing out of the gates to take up the running before settling and booting clear at the finish. Has only had the one trial so that’s all we can judge him off but like what we saw from the Sebring colt. Being trained by master two-year-old conditioners Peter and Paul Snowden you can approach the race with a little more confidence. Damian Browne makes the trek down from Queensland for a strong book of rides and tipping him to kick off a winner at Rosehill.
Danger: Stunts was excellent on debut at Randwick over 1000m running a final 600m of 32.91s as revealed by Punters' Intel. He certainly announced himself as a horse to follow going forward. Will appreciate the extra 100m but maps to give the leaders another start. He’s the first foal of gun mare Aerobatics. Tactical Formation the improver on a firm surface? He was too bad to be true on debut.
How to play it: Neutrality WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Neutrality’s Wyong trial win – Oct 23
|Race 2 - 12:40PM CFMEU MINING HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Rekindled Force has won at Muswellbrook and Newcastle to date but he couldn’t have been any more impressive in those outings and deserves his crack in town now. After the claim of Andrew Adkins he carries just 52.5kg and will settle in the first two. We’ll leave it up to Adkins and Josh Parr (who rides Beacon) to sort out who leads and who settles second. Either way, those up the front certainly aren’t going to be disadvantaged. The now boutique stable of Paul Messara is firing at the moment with five winners from his past seven starters – with two of those wins belonging to this very horse.
Danger: Unforgotten is a very smart filly but there’s a risk she’ll be looking for further than 1300m now and maps to settle last. That said, her first up win was too brilliant to dismiss her chances and the small field means she won't be too far off them. Marsupial has been costly to punters this campaign but possesses the ability. Has trialled well between runs.
How to play it: Rekindled Force WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Rekindled Force winning with ease at Newcastle
|Race 3 - 1:20PM AMWU HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Tango Rain has been a beaten favourite in his last two runs but what will see him turn those placings into a win here (hopefully!) is the drop back to 1100m. He did win over 1200m early in his career but these days he looks a genuine short course specialist. The end of six furlongs just seems to find him out. He drops slightly in grade which sees him rise in the weights but he has already won this campaign carrying 60.5kg. Has had a month between runs but has plenty of fitness on his side four runs in and Gerald Ryan believes the horse does his best work when kept fresh.
Danger: Best Guess has returned in good order this time in, first up running White Moss to a length before winning well at Canterbury at the midweeks. After the claim, Best Guest will be getting a whopping 9kg off Tango Rain which will give him his chance. Noble Joey wasn’t flash first up but he is much better than that and can bounce back.
How to play it: Tango Rain WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tango Rain winning recently with 60.5kg over 1100m
|Race 4 - 2:00PM TURNER FREEMAN HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Collateral has won five from nine starts since being transferred to Bjorn Baker, never finishing worse than fourth. He was exceptional first up hammering the line to miss in a photo with Improvement running an 11.27 from the 400m to the 200m and then being the only horse to break 12s home, as revealed by Punters' Intel. First up last time he ran a similar eye catching race before finding the mile a tad short next time out. Baker has done his homework finding a 1800m assignment second up this time. This six-year-old gives the impression he certainly hasn’t finished improving either.
Danger: Black On Gold’s only knock is the price. He looks too skinny at $2.20 despite winning well first up and then running on into second behind Interlocuter last time out. He’s an obvious threat though. New Tipperary gets the blinkers on and might get a firm track (weather watch for him). There’s enough in his favour to see him win this.
How to play it: Collateral WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Collateral’s eye-catching return
|Race 5 - 2:45PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Equal Balance gave subsequent city winner Easy Eddie a galloping lesson two back at Kembla Grange before being nailed late at his subsequent outing when he wanted to drift off the track. The Hinchinbrook three-year-old is still learning his craft with only three runs under his belt but like what we’ve seen so far and this race looks to set up well for him from a middle draw. Brock Ryan rides claiming three kilograms which sees him in with 52.5kg.
Danger: I Am Captain chased She Knows home last time out in a Highway and after a string of placings, finds a suitable race to break through. Southern Flight is the runner at odds that will give plenty of cheek second up after a very encouraging return while Neyla’s Girl claimed the scalp of Zonk last time out!
How to play it: Equal Balance WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Equal Balance breezing past Easy Eddie
|Race 6 - 3:25PM THE LIDORAN GROUP HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Have got plenty of time for Carzoff. The five-year-old import has run three seconds from four starts for Chris Waller including first up when he was held up at Doomben before motoring to the line. He jumps straight out from 1350m to 1800m which might leave him a touch vulnerable but from the soft draw, backing his class to see him fighting out the finish. We’re yet to see the best of him and pretty confident he’ll go a new level this time around. Waller’s imports generally taken a preparation to acclimatise and it’s the right time of year in Sydney for Carzoff to pick off a race or two.
Danger: Even when Social Element gets rolled, he goes down fighting which is an admirable trait in a horse. He wasn’t beaten far by seasoned stayers Destiny’s Kiss and Alward over 2400m last time out. Drops back to 1800m but it’s a recipe Waterhouse and Bott have used with great success in the past. Impavido has to rate a mention but draws awkwardly again.
How to play it: Carzoff WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Social Element's game fourth last start
|Race 7 - 4:10PM BLACKTOWN WORKERS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
This looks a lovely race for Slow Burn to make it win number three. Her reputation as a promising sprinting mare took a slight knock last time out at Canterbury but she was attacked in front and only went down by half a length in the end, being swamped by Osborne Bulls, who looks well above average, 50m from home. Behind her in fourth was Passage In Time who came out and beat Stonebrook last Saturday. Slow Burn has never run over 1100m but it looks to suit her given her natural brilliance. She also drops in weight and is back to her own sex. Maps to find the fence and lead this field with Victorian raider Gweneth for company. Think she’ll be too slick.
Danger: In Times Of War nailed Slow Burn on the line to nab second last time out, albeit running 3.2m less, according to Punters' Intel, sticking hard against the fence, and looks the main threat in this. She also beat home Slow Burn when Slow Burn missed the kick at Canterbury one day. She has run an incredible nine seconds from 11 starts. Guess what? Tipping her to make it 10 from 12. Looks the obvious quinella.
How to play it: Slow Burn WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Slow Burn and In Times Of War met last start
|Race 8 - 4:55PM BRADFORD SOUNDSCREEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Sweet Serendipity will give these something to catch from out in front. He looks ready now third up and was only beaten two lengths by My Country at his latest outing. There is some rain on the radar which would elevate his chances in the race from being an each-way hope to a genuine winning chance, so monitor the weather. He is such an honest campaigner and typically wins a race every preparation. It’s in the best interests of Coolring and Isorich to not take him on in front so with a cheap sectional or two, he is capable of fighting off the late challengers.
Danger: Isorich is in the form of his life at the moment winning two on the bounce. Two back taking the scalp of Improvement, who has won herself since, and then toppling I Thought So and Tango Rain. Hopefully we’re not jumping on the bandwagon too late! My Country and Zumbelina will be closing late.
How to play it: Sweet Serendipity WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) and Isorich WIN ($9.50)
Sweet Serendipity being overrun by My Country last start
|Race 9 - 5:40PM BRADFORD SOLAR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
This race sets up perfectly for Crafty Cop third up. Have been waiting for the son of Starcraft to get back out to 1400m and after a couple of encouraging runs this time in, he looks ready to win. The only time we’ve seen this now four-year-old over 1400m he placed at Group Three level behind Attention and Prized Icon. He was by far the best of the on pacers at Randwick last start to be run over by My Country, with New Universe (scratched) back in third. He can be a bit head strong, even after being gelded, but if he can lead and find his rhythm he’ll be hard to peg back.
Danger: Crafty Cop should get his chance out in front but if Tudor happens to make a pest of himself, expect High Mist to be close enough if good enough. Looks to have taken plenty of confidence from his Warwick Farm win with an excellent third in strong company since. Siren’s Fury was luckless first up.
How to play it: Crafty Cop WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Crafty Cop and New Universe filled the placings last start