Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Racing returns to Rosehill where the rail is in the True position and the track rated in the Good 4 range. The first, which features smart two-year-old Time To Reign, jumps at 12pm.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM LACK GROUP HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Time To Reign should be winning this, as the market suggests. The half-brother to She Will Reign impressed on debut at Randwick and there is still so much more to come from this promising youngster. He still has some way to go to emulate big sister but a win here should guarantee a spot in the Golden Slipper. What made the win of the Time For War colt so impressive was the scope he has for improvement. He was ridden aggressively to lead, dropped his head and dashed home. So far good but late in the straight he wanted to gawk around looking at the big screen, billboards, pretty dresses. You name it. Rachel King (who is in Melbourne this week to ride Lanciato) couldn’t straighten him out so to still hold a commanding margin at the finish bodes very well for his future.
Danger: The favourite looks to have the raced brigade covered quite comfortably on what we’ve seen to date. That just leaves unraced colt 3. Jonah. He cost $300,000 being a brother to Flippant and a half to I Am Excited. Thought his two trials were solid without being spectacular. The latest he won at Randwick, responding well to a little niggle and confidently diving between horses. Add an extra tick for the Snowden two-year-old polish. Take your pick for third - 4. Absolute Control might be more comfortable on a firm deck and was slow to recover on debut.
How to play it: Time To Reign WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds)
Time To Reign winning on debut
|Race 2 - 12:40PM DYNATON SALES & HIRE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
“This horse is special.” That was the endorsement James McDonald gave 3. Roheryn after he won at debut at Warwick Farm. To the eye it was tradesman-like but he didn’t look at home on the wet track. His class got him home in the Heavy 10 conditions. His trial win prior to that, again at Warwick Farm, was exceptional, sitting wide on speed before exploding clear under the slightest of urgings. The Lohnro colt gets his chance to show us what he is really made of on Saturday with Rosehill in the good range. He’ll likely settle last in this small field but will get his chance to round his rivals up with Melbourne visitor 4. Shamino leading from 1. Ronstar. All that said, this is a very deep race with a number of genuine winning chances.
Danger: 5. Brazilica was truckloaded on debut and although she didn’t beat much, she did it easily in the end. Chris Waller has his eyes on the autumn already with the filly. By Redoute’s Choice out of Oaks winner Brazilian Pulse, she won over 1100m on class. She steps out to 1200m here, will be better for the outing and should stalk the leaders from the inside draw. She’ll be dropping on them late with 53.5kg. 1. Ronstar is the horse with the runs on the board. He beat Diplomatico at his second start. He is a bulldog and won’t go down without a fight. 2. The Tenor can be wayward but possesses the ability to win this too, coming off a placing in the Brian Crowley.
How to play it: Roheryn WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Roheryn grinding out a debut win at Warwick Farm
|Race 3 - 1:20PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Siding with the toppie 1. Handle The Truth in this week’s TAB Highway Handicap. This three-year-old won a Highway two back at Rosehill over 1200m before running a game fourth at Randwick back to 1100m last time out. That was after enduring a wide run. There looks to be enough speed here for Nick Heywood to just tuck in behind the first few. The Star Witness gelding is starting to creep up in the weights at this level, carrying 58kgs, but he is a classy horse and still has upside having had only six starts. Looking forward to seeing what he can do on top of the ground. Not surprised that his opening price of $4.60 has trimmed up considerably.
Danger: 4. Chewbacca has only had four starts himself but Danny Williams holds the four-year-old in very high regard and the Goulburn trainer wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be a genuine Country Championships contender come the autumn. By all reports, he is fit and ready to rumble fresh. 5. Majestic Pedrille whacked away bravely last start despite covering a stack of ground, just peaking on her run late. Throw her into multiples, along with 9. Schappose who will strip fitter for his first up showing at Tamworth when collared late. The second horse there (Buddy’s Ode) has since won at the provincials.
How to play it: Handle The Truth WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Handle The Truth’s last start Randwick effort
|Race 4 - 2:00PM LIDORAN GROUP HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
2. Red Excitement strikes a very winnable race having run fairly in the G1 Epsom last start. He has been freshened since, running second in a trial at Warwick Farm to keep the engine ticking over. Only once before in the nine-year-old’s career has he had a mid-preparation trial and he won the 2016 G3 Summer Cup by three lengths. Red Excitement’s run prior to the Epsom was very good, finding the line behind New Tipperary to run second in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle. Best Of Days, who didn’t have the clearest passage, finished third which ties in the form with Melbourne visitor 3. Mask Of Time having dead-heated with Best Of Days in the Coongy last start. I’d expect Josh Parr to roll forward on Red Excitement. Hard to beat.
Danger: 5. The Lord Mayor chased home Zahspeed at Moonee Valley last time out while prior to that he was held up badly at Caulfield behind Melbourne Cup favourite Yucatan in the Herbert Power. The Chris Waller-trained four-year-old is rock hard fit and we know he’ll dig in when the race is there to be won or lost. The knock on Mask Of Time is the dry track. With hot temperatures in Sydney, you’d suggest we’ll be racing on a Good 3 surface. He has never won on a firm track, with his last start Coongy effort on soft ground, which saw him bounce back to form.
How to play it: Red Excitement WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Red Excitement running second in the Cameron
|Race 5 - 2:45PM TURNER FREEMAN HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
2. Social Element has made steady improvement every time he has had a spin this campaign. Two back he ran third to Exoteric in the Port Macquarie Cup before that form came to the fore in the Tatts Cup at Randwick with Social Element being overhauled late by Exoteric. It was a lovely ride from Rachel King tucking in behind the speed before taking off at the 800m attempting to pinch the race from the top of the straight. Adam Hyeronimus could face a similar set of circumstances here with 3. Cosmologist wanting to take up the running. A similar ride to last start and happy to suggest that this Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stayer will grind his rivals into the ground.
Danger: 6. Tamarack fits into this race well with 54kg. He goes on all surfaces and although is deep into a preparation, is holding his form. He dug in to win at Warwick Farm over 2400m last time out with 59kg. That was at the midweeks but at this time of year there isn't much between the Wednesday and Saturday stayers. Recent placings behind High Bridge, Zourkhan and The Lord Mayor reads well. Of the rest, 3. Cosmologist - wet tracker? 4. Raqeeq - does he stay 2400m? Can’t have either in this at the odds.
How to play it: Social Element WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Social Element’s last start second to Exoteric
|Race 6 - 3:25PM CFMEU MINING & ENERGY DIVISION HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Muraahib looks exceptionally well placed for the Hayes and Dabernig-trained yard, ducking up the Highway to avoid the carnival horses in Melbourne. The four-year-old is no stranger to New South Wales having raced here as a two-year-old but didn’t get much luck and found two heavy tracks. After that he didn’t really fire a shot as a three-year-old but has found his groove again now. He got a couple of confidence-boosting wins on the synthetic first and second up before the dreaded atrial fibrillation saw him flop third up at Caulfield. Wipe that from his record. He rebounded last start, running third to Manuel in a high-rating race, where Fifty Stars was second. There was a gap to him in third but another margin back to fourth. Will get every chance from the draw and a repeat of that effort just about wins this.
Danger: Be very forgiving of 4. Mapmaker’s last start flop at Randwick. He was slow away from the wide draw which saw him get a long way back. His wheels spun in the heavy conditions, was seven weeks between runs and he never figured. His two runs prior to that have him right in this. He won at Rosehill before running third to Paret, again at Rosehill. He was hard in the market there too. His Rosehill stats read 9:2-2-4, so he certainly likes racing on his home deck. Shouldn’t be double figure odds. 5. Schubert got too far back at the midweeks last start. He ran home but is very well found as the early favourite in this race. 1.Caerless Choice has place claims while wouldn’t be surprised to see 8. Monsieur Sisu run a cheeky race after impressing at the trials.
How to play it: Muraahib WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and Mapmaker WIN ($10)
Mapmaker’s third to Paret two runs ago
|Race 7 - 4:10PM AMWU HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Have been waiting for 3. Newsfan to return to the races. There’s no doubt this Kim Waugh-trained mare should be resuming here as the last start winner of the Provincial Championships series. She was pinned away and Serene Miss, with an uninterrupted run down the outside, swept past her. It was a similar excuse the start prior to that in the Gosford qualifier, behind the very same horse. Her two wins prior to that, in much softer grade, were dominant. What is the real clincher is how well she recently trialled on her home patch at Wyong. She was under a stranglehold but towed the jockey to victory. She’s already a five-year-old, despite being so lightly-raced with two wins and four seconds from six starts, so we should see her in her prime this preparation. Should progress to black-type races eventually.
Danger: 8. Dawn Dawn hit the line sweetly in Group Three company first up at Caulfield. Drawing 15 of 16 certainly did her no favours. If she drew better she’d have been in the finish. Her best win to date was over the Rosehill 1200m. It was her last run of the preparation and she darted clear to beat Easy Eddie by a widening two lengths. Dangerously weighted with 53.5kg. Terrified of her to be honest. 1. Test The World boxed away well first up in the G3 Nivison – which was won by Resin in slick time for the day. Lumps 60.5kg here though. 6. Hussterical is capable on her day and will make her own luck.
How to play it: Newsfan WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds)
Newsfan winning her recent Wyong trial – Oct 22
|Race 8 - 4:55PM BRADFORD BLACK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
8. Star Of Monsoon was explosive winning first up last preparation at Rosehill. That was in a BM80 grade race and he ran a length faster overall time than the 1200m BM92 on the same day won by stablemate Albumin. And that was despite the leaders going quicker through the first 800m in Albumin’s race. Punters Intel reveals that Star Of Monsoon ran home in some very slick closing splits running 33.94s his last 600m with breakdowns of 11.25, 11.21 and 11.48s. In third there was Paret who ran the fastest last 600m split of the day and won three on the bounce after that. Off an eye-catching Warwick Farm trial, they’ll certainly know this Gerald Ryan trained sprinter is there on Saturday. His best run of the campaign could very well be fresh again so don’t miss the boat.
Danger: 10. Cradle Mountain was running the times of a Group class animal last preparation before his career came to a crashing halt at Scone when he suffered a severe hamstring injury. He has been on the sidelines since with Clare Cunningham nursing the talented sprinter back to health. The five-year-old has trialled well twice, the latest of those on a heavy track when asked to chase down the leader. That should have him fit enough to fire. Still, you’re always a tad cautious backing a horse off such an injury, especially when they are so short in the market. Can he win? Absolutely, but can’t have him at the odds preferring to play Star Of Monsoon each way. All of the speed in the race has been scratched which helps his claims.
How to play it: Star Of Monsoon EACH WAY ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 31, 2018
|Race 9 - 5:40PM BRADFORD ENERGY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Convinced 8. Fierce Impact should be a dominant favourite. The Japanese-bred import hammered the line first up to run second before connections had a throw at the stumps in the G1 Toorak Handicap last start. He ran eighth but was hardly disgraced at the finish, beaten 5.7 lengths by Land Of Plenty with Hartnell in second. The five-year-old in the Matt Smith yard will be cherry ripe now third up, draws soft in barrier 3 and drops back to BM88 grade. It’s easy to forget he is still only a 78 rater so carries 55kg. It’s somewhat of a D-Day for this horse as although he is only four starts into his Australian career, he has promised to go onto bigger and better things than this. No excuses. Expect him to win.
Danger: 7. Mahalangur has strung two wins together and although he stays in the same grade as last start, there were no horses of Fierce Impact’s quality in the field he beat at Randwick. Still, you can’t do any more than win and the penny looks to have dropped for the four-year-old after promising so much early days. The barrier doesn’t do him any favours as the luxury of the box seat, which he has slotted into in his last two wins, is unlikely to be an option. Tommy Berry is also replaced by Koby Jennings. Despite the market suggesting otherwise, think the winning chances end there.
How to play it: Fierce Impact WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
"No excuses. I expect him to win."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 1, 2018