By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a Good track.
|Race 1 - 12:05PM EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Keen to track 1. She’s Ideel as she continues to charge through her grades. The lightly-raced five-year-old jumped out of the ground midway through her preparation last time in which saw her bounce off a second at Muswellbrook to win three in a row in town. The DundeEl mare showed an exceptional turn of foot. In the second of those she gunned down Costello before putting a gap on him late. Punters Intelligence shows she clocked a slick 34.13s for her last 600m and 11.53s for her last 200m. Then stepping out to 2400m, although the winning margin was only narrow, it was a slowly run race and she dashed home in sharp time again. That sprint has become her trademark. One the back of three eye-catching trials she looks ready to go fresh up over 1500m.
Dangers: 3. Dancing Gidget was slow to recover last start when a plain sixth. That was the second time she had put in a shocker on heavy ground too. Three weeks between runs and on a good track, it’d be no surprise to see her bounce back. Chris Waller has six runners here and James McDonald rides her. Curious to see what 2. Vegas Jewel does now she is with Waller. Showed talent as a staying three-year-old. 9. Vitesse maps to get another soft time in front and that makes her dangerous again, as does the light weight with 10. Saigon stepping up to this grade. 5. Nimalee will run well but doubt she has the turn of foot to beat some of these over this trip.
How to play it: She’s Ideel WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Need a reminder of what She's Ideel did last preparation?@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to highlight her exceptional turn of foot, suggesting that she's a mare worth following through the grades @tabcomau @rosehillgardens @BBakerRacing pic.twitter.com/u7XExT6Woj
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 28, 2020
|Race 2 - 12:40PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
This isn’t a deep Highway. 2. Cosmic Haze had a long preparation last time in starting in a Scone maiden and ending it in the Group One ATC Oaks out to 2400m. She ran a well beaten ninth behind Colette. Prior to that she was midfield in the G3 Adrian Knox behind Colette again. Her run back in February when splitting Violet and Badoosh at Eagle Farm would be good enough to win this. The four-year-old daughter of Deep Field led in a recent Scone trial and liked how she ran away from her rivals when she was given a nudge along. Brett Cavanough trained the quinella in the Highway last Saturday and he is forming a lethal combination with Jason Collett. Lifetime, they’ve paired up on 29 occasions for 9 winners.
Dangers: 4. Rent A Rock has raced on a run of wet tracks and hasn’t looked comfortable. He resumed a fortnight ago on a heavy 9 at Moruya and thought he boxed on well given the set up. Hasn’t finished any better than midfield in two Highways in the past but this is very winnable. 9. Casino Kid doesn’t have the convictions of many of his rivals here with just five starts to his name. The three-year-old is still in his first preparation but has been racing like he’ll relish the 1400m, and on top of the ground. The topweight 1. Yulong Base is also lightly-raced and is yet to finish outside of the top two. The extra trip looks ideal now. The knock is the price.
How to play it: Cosmic Haze WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Cosmic Haze winning at recent Scone trial
|Race 3 - 1:15PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
9. Niccochet places a lot more than he wins (34:4-9-7) but liked how he closed behind 4. Not Feint Hearted last start and meets him 6kg better off for a 0.9L defeat. The speed looks genuine enough on paper for the seven-year-old to rush home into the money again. The Jason Coyle-trained son of Nicconi shouldn’t be giving away an impossible start either drawn barrier 2. With 52kg on his back after the claim of Louise Day, he’s well placed to break a run of outs that goes back 12 starts to July last year. That’s not to say he hasn’t run well since then including a narrow second to Man Of Peace. Day has ridden Niccochet once before when a luckless seventh behind Two Big Fari. This is a very open race and he looks the most likely of springing a minor upset.
Dangers: 10. Papal Warrior gets everything to suit here. The four-year-old is rock hard fit after a run of placings behind Travest, Edison, Dancing Gidget and Montefilia, maps beautifully and James McDonald rides. Will he hold that form onto a form track though? Not Feint Hearted is in career best form but how much of that can be attributed to the heavy tracks he has been running on? 8. Badoosh was beaten out of sight by Not Feint Hearted first up before scoring an equally dominant win himself back to midweek company. 2. Discharged jumps straight out to 1500m second up and thought he chased bravely when third to Fender. 1. Bobby Dee wouldn’t completely shock either.
How to play it: Niccochet EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Niccochet hitting the line last start
|Race 4 - 1:50PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
9. Merlinite has never been at home on wet tracks and given she has run second at her last two starts on heavy ground, albeit at the midweeks, suggests she has come back very well. Now back onto a good track, confident that she’ll run much better than her early odds suggest. The five-year-old mare stabled with John O’Shea has drawn widest but she has shown in the past that she can slide forward to be handy. That’s probably the only option for Glen Boss, especially now that the daughter of Pierro is hard fit being fourth up and in a race without an obvious leader. Her record on good tracks reads 8:3-2-1 while anything worse than that, her record is 6:0-2-0 with those two placings coming at her last couple of starts.
Dangers: 1. Korcho is the class runner here but this is no easy task with 59kg (even after the claim of Louise Day), five weeks between runs and the awkward barrier. The import does look better than a BM78 horse as evidenced by his latest two wins though. Keen to see what he can do on top of the ground. The opposite can be said for 3. Word For Word. Her record suggests she is a wet tracker. 13. Etheridge has sense of timing about her third up after two runs back that were much better than the bare numbers in the form guide suggests. Will settle closer and has 52kg on her back. 11. Guise is hard to catch but keeps dropping rating points is down to 54.5kg now. 10. Magic Over The Bay next best.
How to play it: Merlinite EACH WAY ($17 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Merlinite last start at Warwick Farm
|Race 5 - 2:30PM TAB SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Without knowing the specific spring target for 3. Anders, this is already a semi-final of sorts for the front-running son of Not A Single Doubt. He is the only runner here with a run already under his belt, he’s all speed and we’ve seen what he can do over the Rosehill 1100m in the past. First up he did it at both ends to towel up his rivals in the Rosebud, with a brilliant show of sustained speed. This is a much deeper race of course and the other query is that all three of his career wins have been on soft and heavy tracks. Not prepared to peg him as a wet tracker without giving the chance to prove himself, however. Last preparation at Kembla Grange he was beaten by 5. Peltzer but Anders was posted deep the trip. It’s a race I’ve approached looking for the best suited horse as opposed to the one that’ll prove to be the dominant three-year-old.
Dangers: The depth of the form behind him, the times he was running, everything that unbeaten colt Peltzer has done in his three starts to date suggest he is top shelf. Was let slide to the front in a recent Rosehill trial and did it comfortably, holding off 2. Doubtland who was niggled to find the line. Have mapped him to stalk Anders. Doubtland smashed the clock late when winning the Kindergarten the last time we saw him at the races. Has always needed a reminder in his trials so not scoring him down on that front. How much intent will there be with 1. Mamaragan from the barrier? Can slide across with Anders if John Thompson wants him handy. Has trialled sweetly but could find the 1100m a touch sharp.
How to play it: Anders WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Anders winning the Rosebud first up
|Race 6 - 3:10PM DARLEY VIRTUAL PARADE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
4. Sangria proved once and for all first up that she doesn’t go a yard on heavy tracks. The speedy four-year-old laboured home into sixth behind Inanup as the easing $3.80 favourite four weeks ago. Like that she has been freshened up since then with a sharp tickover trial at Rosehill. Scrap her three flops on tracks rated worse than a 7 and she’s won her last four, beating Dirty Work by 3.5L at Hawkesbury, holding off Bigboyroy when stretched to 1250m, winning a Gosford Class 2 by 4.5L running fast time and then getting home a Listed race down the Flemington straight. She is a completely different horse on top of the ground and if she runs up to her best, she’ll win this.
Dangers: 3. Electric Girl is a talented mare and would have finished on the heels of Emeralds last preparation in the G2 Light Fingers if not for being chopped out late. Thereafter she won three straight. Has trialled well. The query being that a couple of her rivals will be too slippery over 1100m on a good track around Rosehill. All of 1. Black Magnum’s five wins have come first or second up. Handles all tracks but suspect he might have missed his ‘window’ being third up now. 7. Plonka will be steaming home on the back of a strong Grafton trial and while three-year-old colt Destination will need to improve on what he did last start but in his defence that was a Heavy 10.
How to play it: Sangria WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"If she reproduces her best here, she'll win this race."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 27, 2020
|Race 7 - 3:50PM DE BORTOLI WINES MING DYNASTY (1400 METRES)|
Siding with 4. Overlord but not without some trepidation, particularly around the price. The Chris Waller-trained colt has been slow out in his last two race starts and nothing changed in his two trials, flopping out the back. Drawn barrier 1 here though, and with James McDonald in the saddle, he might be able to recover to land in front of a couple. It’s amazing that he is still a maiden given the flashes of talent he displayed as a two-year-old. He bumped into Peltzer twice, starting $2.25 favourite in one of those. Despite his pedigree suggesting otherwise, he didn’t look too comfortable in heavy ground that day. He then savaged the line in the G1 JJ Atkins having been set an impossible task from the rear. Fits the stable’s mould of jumping out of the ground at three.
Dangers: Two that’ll improve sharply back on top of the ground are 3. Kumasi and 2. Aim. Kumasi lost his action completely when asked to let down on the heavy track first up behind Anders. He is a hard horse to get a line on talent-wise as his second to Prague in the G2 Pago Pago was on a soft track while his highest rating win was in a Gosford maiden over 1000m. Aim was never a hope first up on a leader friendly Canterbury deck and on a wet track. We’ve seen enough of him to know how much more dynamic he is on top of the ground. The fact that he even ran suggests he needed it. Expect sharp improvement second up.
How to play it: Overlord WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Overlord’s very quiet recent barrier trial
|Race 8 - 4:30PM IRON JACK PREMIERS CUP (1900 METRES)|
3. Mugatoo smoked to the line to win over 1500m first up. The six-year-old possesses a powerful sprint home and that was on display once more with the import clocking 34.07s for his last 600m. He won his first three Australian starts before being stretched out to 2400m, running second to Young Rascal in the Manion Cup before tackling the G1 Tancred at weight-for age. Like how he has been handled this time back with five weeks between runs as we’ve seen how explosive the son of Henrythenavigator is when he is produced on the fresh side. When he raced overseas he won out to 2900m but assuming he wins again here, Kris Lees has suggested that the G1 Epsom is a possible option. Probably would have preferred a midfield draw being picky, but all being equal, he looks a cut above these.
Dangers: 1. Mustajeer won with 60.5kg first up last preparation over 1900m at Rosehill before running seconds to Master Of Wine and Verry Elleegant. The difference is the good track here instead of a soft deck but he appears equally effective on top of the ground. Respect his class. Loved the return of 5. Rondinella first up behind Man Of Peace. Expect similar tactics to be adopted second up having drawn wide again but would be surprised if she isn’t motoring home as she presumably tracks towards the Metrop. 9. Grey Lion hasn’t been able to quicken on wet tracks. He is a nine-year-old now but this isn’t beyond him back onto a firmer deck. The chances don’t end there with 11. Girl Tuesday, 12. Frankely Awesome and 14. Savacool all capable too.
How to play it: Mugatoo WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Mugatoo winning first up
|Race 9 - 5:10PM RANVET HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
If this was 1400m 8. Subpoenaed would round these up. The 1200m trip is the concern. She is a mare with an exceptional turn of foot but this journey is as short as she wants. She was sent around deep into the red first up last preparation in BM70 company and beat Rari still with gears in hand. That was over 1400m though. She ended the campaign savaging the line behind Dawn Passage at Doomben. The daughter of Rip Van Winkle is pegged as a backmarker but has had a torrid run of wide draws. If James McDonald can hold some kind of midfield spot from the low draw, which will see her within striking distance, she possesses the acceleration to gun these down. Not sure what kind of path Chris Waller is plotting for Subpoenaed over the spring but the goals would certainly be loftier than benchmark races.
Dangers: Despite the big field, it’s mostly made up of backmarkers and horses looking for further which could see 7. Prime Candidate get complete control. Could be wrong but doubt 11. Entente has the toe to be on top of the speed over 1200m. Prime Candidate was thereabouts in three runs over the winter but the wet tracks prevented him from putting one of them away. The last start time he race on a good track he was beaten a length by Sweet Deal. Forget 3. Something Fast’s last preparation, it was a disaster before it even begun after a setback saw him kick off over 1350m on a Heavy 10. Has trialled well on three occasions. Will run well but thinking he’ll be a bet second up over a touch further. 2. Kubrick, 1. Wandabaa and 16. Safado rate mentions.
How to play it: Subpoenaed WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Subpoenaed in the James Carr last preparation
All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday