By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True position and the form has been done for a good track.
|Race 1 - 12:30PM MONSTAR FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
9. Humbolt Current was outgunned by Shock Alert last time out but there is simply no beating Nash Rawiller in a tight finish! Really like how this race sets up for the Chris Waller-trained Humbolt Current up in grade but down in weight. 5. Rapido Chaparro will take up the running with Melbourne visitor 1. Dr Drill the only other runner with a profile to settle on speed. Tipping Kerrin McEvoy will push the button early to sit outside of the lead, with no weight on his back. Much of the merit in his last start second, asides from gapping third, was the early move he made to avoid being trapped wide. That was into a fast early tempo too, before the speed backed off. There is a sense of timing about this horse now with four runs under his belt and the way this race looks set to play out. Very keen about his chances.
Dangers: Dr Drill has tasted success in Sydney before, having won at Randwick three starts back. Since then he failed on a heavy track at Flemington (forgive) before last start, after a four week freshen, hitting the line well to run second over the mile at Moonee Valley. Not easy at the top of the weights but he’ll get his chance. All four of Rapido Chaparro’s wins have been on tight-turning tracks and on good surfaces. He gets half that equation here. 8. Costello arguably should have beaten Dr Drill when they met back in July but his challenge lies in dropping back from 2400m to 1900m. How sharp will he be when asked to quicken? 7. Lady Cuvee has four lengths to make up on Humbolt Current but was only second up there.
How to play it: How to play it: Humbolt Current WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 26, 2019
|Race 2 - 1:05PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
3. Lolita Gold tackles the 1500m fresh up but she looks well placed here by Canberra-based trainer Neil Osborne. The last time we saw this galloper she was thrown in the deep end in the G3 Kembla Grange Classic behind Pohutukawa! She was closer to last than first, as her starting price suggested she would be, but she certainly wasn’t disgraced despite the 10L margin. Her win at Goulburn prior to that was strong while not sure she saw out the 2000m at Albury three back so forgive her that. With just the eight starts to her name, there’s still more to come. The daughter of Zoffany has trialled once, taking ground off Major Danger on her home track. Should be able to use the gate to settle midfield, or a touch worse, and be presented with her chance.
Dangers: 6. Storm Attack missed by the narrowest of margins behind Haames in a Highway Handicap last start. The four-year-old was given the run of the race by Jay Ford and slipped up the fence to make a late dive. Doesn’t map to get as cosy a run this week but profiles to be in the finish again. Like the winkers going on 1. Jumper Leads. He looked well beaten last start but held his ground to run sixth, also in that same race behind Haames. Can he get to the front from the very wide draw? 9. Classy Fella had his first run at the mile at Coffs Harbour last start and liked his close. He is deep into a preparation but has never raced better. 5. Harbouring will appreciate the trip here too, having returned well over 1300m at Dubbo.
How to play it: Lolita Gold WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Lolita Gold trialling at Goulburn – September 13
|Race 3 - 1:40PM SCHWEPPES HERITAGE STAKES (1100 METRES)|
This is the first time we’ve seen 1. Cosmic Force since he was heavily backed in the Golden Slipper. His failure there was blamed on the quick back up having belted his rivals in the Pago Pago a week earlier. Maybe he had come to the end of his preparation too. Either way, there was plenty to like about the way this colt’s two-year-old campaign unfolded. Similar to Bivouac, a horse he ran second to in the Lonhro Plate at just his second start, every time we saw this son of Deep Field he made big leaps forward. That trend of course stopped come the Slipper but forgive him that. Last preparation, he also ran second to Sires’ winner Microphone with Castelvecchio back in third. Liked his latest trial behind 2. Bellevue Hill responding to a click up to charge at the line. You never really know until they do it, but with him, happy to gamble that he trains on at three.
Dangers: Bellevue Hill was originally on a Golden Rose path but found himself behind. It’s never ideal, an interrupted preparation which saw him trial for a third time, five weeks after his second, but his run in the Todman behind Yes Yes Yes highlights his class. He then won the Baillieu on a Heavy 10. 6. Pandemic burst onto the scene with two sizzling wins at Wyong and then the Kensington track, clocking fast closing splits. He failed last time out behind Yao Dash and Funstar but it’s about as deep a BM72 as you’ll find and suspect he simply didn’t get the 1300m. It’s no surprise he is back to 1100m. The draw doesn’t help him but his turn of foot is deadly. 5. Catch Me, outside of the four top colts in the Run To The Rose, was the only other runner to break 33s for her last 600m across the entire meeting. Still tends to miss the kick and overrace, however.
How to play it: Cosmic Force WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bellevue Hill and Cosmic Force in a Randwick trial – September 10
|Race 4 - 2:15PM TOOHEYS 150TH BIRTHDAY SHANNON STAKES (1500 METRES)|
3. Gem Song was brilliant first up behind Arcadia Queen and Trope in the G2 Theo Marks. The four-year-old looks set to go to another level again this campaign. He has two Group Threes already under his belt and ended last campaign starting $5 in the G1 Doomben Cup. Perhaps the 2000m saw him out or he just wasn’t seasoned enough at the time. In his run before that, 4. Tom Melbourne beat him home, despite giving away 5kg. Here, Gem Song has to give Tom Melbourne 0.5kg. The pair did meet in the Theo Marks last start and Tom had excuses covering ground. There was very little between Gem Song’s last 600m of 33.23s and Trope’s (33.19s) while their last 200m splits were identical (11.33s). Gem Song did have the advantage of slipping up the fence, on a day where it was hard to make ground out wide.
Dangers: 7. Con Te Partiro never got a crack in the Cameron Handicap last Friday going to the line hard held. It was no guide at all but on the strength of her first up effort in the Show County behind Deprive, where she was particularly strong through the line, the six-year-old is clearly going well. Just hope she is still sharp enough as her past form suggests she races well fresh. 5. Noire teased first up in the Sheraco, finding the line in an unsuitably slow run race, suggesting she can find her best form again. The Foxwedge mare won this race last year, beating Kingsgaurd and Youngstar. Kiwi four-year-old 6. Avantage was too bad to be true last Saturday in the Bill Ritchie. Can’t imagine this race was part of the original plan so want to see her bounce back.
How to play it: Gem Song WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Gem Song’s third in the Theo Marks first up
|Race 5 - 2:50PM TAB GOLDEN PENDANT (1400 METRES)|
Here we go again. Co-trainer Michael Hawkes was quoted during the week suggesting that 7. Dyslexic is the unluckiest horse that he has ever had anything to do with. Just when you thinking last start that we’d run out of excuses for her, getting a good track and drawn low, she gets stuck in behind and never gets clear. It was a painful watch. It was a sit-sprint home with 3. Mizzy controlling the race from the front. With 6. Fundementalist taking up the running, Mizzy won’t get to dictate the speed here. It’s not hard to make a case for Dyslexic to turn the tables on 2. Champagne Cuddles on that last start clash, and it’s the same weight scale. Not overly thrilled Dyslexic has drawn the inside peg as she’ll need luck again weaving a passage late. Loyal or crazy, need to see her get every chance in a race before dropping off.
Dangers: 5. Enticing Star should beat these if she wants to be competitive in The TAB Everest. However, need to be convinced first. Especially when you’re having to take $2.80 in first markets to find out. She is a winner, no doubt about that, boasting eight victories from 10 starts. Those two defeats came in her last two outings – the first she was said to be in season, while she was subsequently chased down by Voodoo Lad in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes. The blinkers come off with Chris Waller keeping them up his sleeve for October 19. 4. Pretty In Pink ran last behind Mizzy first up but it was a non-event for her. She beat Brave Song second up last campaign. 1. Invincibella kicking off over 1400m gives her the chance to make a winning return.
How to play it: Dyslexic WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Dyslexic’s luckless run in the Sheraco
|Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)|
9. Gayatri was given a lovely ride by Tommy Berry last start to get the better of 10. Dabiyr. The difference was simply Gayatri had a turn of foot that Dabiyr couldn't match. To his credit, Dabiyr didn't shirk his task, holding the margin through the line. Gayatri is a talented staying mare capable of taking another step in this down on 53kg. Dry tracks over 2400m is in her wheelhouse. Two back she was good behind Our Candidate while prior to that she had no luck at all behind Hogmanay over 2000m.
Dangers: Dabiyr was perhaps flattered at Moonee Valley two back when the leader rolled along and he relished the fast tempo. He ran well at Rosehill last start but didn’t look the same horse, unable to quicken at the top of the straight when stablemate Gayatri loomed large. The tempo here will be dictated by 1. Stampede. As he did last Saturday, he controlled the middle stages before Adam Hyeronimus put the foot down at the 800m. The dry track looks to be against him repeating that last start second. 6. Blue Breeze can bounce back adding value to multiples.
How to play it: Gayatri WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Scarlet Dream’s closing effort on wet ground last Saturday
|Race 7 - 4:05PM DE BORTOLI WINES GOLDEN ROSE (1400 METRES)|
2. Bivouac on top. As talented as 5. Exceedance is, this race doesn’t look to set up any differently to the Run To The Rose. Bivouac sat outside of the leader rolling along as an even clip early before exploding from on top of the speed with Punters Intelligence revealing a 32.79s last 600m. That made it impossible for Exceedance to chase him down and despite running 32.59s, which were the fastest closing splits across the day, he was never getting to the winner. Bivouac was holding him on the line, clocking a last 200m of 11.14s compared to Exceedance’s 11.09s. This week’s speed map is very similar which should see Bivouac land in the same spot, but outside of leader 8. Yao Dash, which last start beat Tea Rose winner Funstar last start having controlled the race from the front and kicked strongly. The blinkers came off Bivouac last start which saw him settle beautifully in the run. His strength across the line suggests the 1400m won’t be a problem.
Dangers: Exceedance tends to flop out of the gates and he was only so close first up in the San Domenico because he was able to punch up the fence from the inside draw in the field of five. Suspect he needed one of two things to turn the tables on Bivouac – another wet track or a fast clip up front. He gets neither. Have mapped him to be third pair again, trailing 4. Yes Yes Yes, with that horse on the back of Bivouac. Is there enough improvement in Yes Yes Yes to beat Bivouac? Chris Waller’s horses can improve sharply first to second up. He’ll be cherry ripe for this. The same can be said for 6. Kubrick with his run much better than the losing margin suggests first up. Could settle a pair closer in the run.
How to play it: Bivouac WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN
Bivouac winning the Run To The Rose
|Race 8 - 4:45PM ANTLER GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)|
Nobody missed the run of 2. Shadow Hero in the Dulcify Stakes first up. It stamped him as the horse to beat going towards the G1 Spring Champion but first he tackles the Gloaming out to 1800m. In the Dulcify he rattled home his last 600m in 33.59s. That was despite an interrupted passage half way down the straight. Love the way Shadow Hero savaged the line when out, moving away from Castelvecchio on the post. That was on a day where it was hard to make ground and amplifying that further was the very cosy lead that 1. Just Thinkin’ got in front. We saw Shadow Hero’s quality in his first preparation where at his third start he made up a stack of ground behind Prince Fawaz and Kubrick in the G1 JJ Atkins. The Pierro gelding has drawn low so hopefully he can settle midfield, or a touch worse. He can’t afford to give Just Thinkin’ another eight length head start.
Dangers: Just Thinkin’ got a picnic in the middle stages of the Dulcify but he looks to get a similar set up in this with only 10. Lucky Imperator for company. 6. Fasano gets the blinkers off so perhaps he’ll be ridden with cover? Just Thinkin’ will give another massive sight and will only be further improved out in trip himself. 3. Subedar looked a touch reluctant to dive up the inside of Just Thinkin’ when it got tight in the straight. His sectionals suggested he was moving into the race like the winner. He has every possible there so hard to see him turning the tables. The thought of opposing a Murray Baker-trained three-year-old over a trip is terrifying but can’t have Ming Dynasty winner 4. Quick Thinker at the odds. That was a heavy track and the form out of the race (bar Subedar) is plain. The second and third horse there have both run last since.
How to play it: Shadow Hero WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) and 1,2 QUINELLA Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Just Thinkin’ won the Dulcify but watch for Shadow Hero
|Race 9 - 5:25PM SYDNEY'S WEST HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Not an easy race! Can make a case for 8. Mushaireb at big odds. The import won first up for Richard and Michael Freedman last campaign, albeit in a weaker race than this being a midweek BM74 but he won with authority. The leaders really tore along in front and he was the last man standing having stalked the speed. That explains his last 600m of 36.37s. There’s good speed here so the potential for a similar set up. The form from the race is patchy but Primitovo hit the line to run sixth. After that Mushaireb ran a close fourth out to 1550m before starting $3.60 favourite ahead of So You Win. He was no match for that horse in the end, running third. The six-year-old has had three trials this time in, the latest with Brenton Avdulla riding, and he sticks here.
Dangers: 7. Irukandji and 10. Juventus duked it out at Rosehill last start with Irukandji prevailing by a narrow margin. He certainly appreciated getting back on top of the ground having failed on heavy ground prior to that. The case for Juventus to turn the tables is the 1.5kg weight swing, dropping to 53.5kg. 11. Amangiri probably would have won the G3 Packer Plate last campaign with any luck. She just missed in the Adrian Knox before that, rolling along in front. The 1400m might be a touch short and she has to go ahead again to compete against the older horses at four. Tricky to line up so monitor the market for any betting confidence. 3. Baller is back in grade again but will have 2. You Make Me Smile driving him mad up front.
How to play it: Mushaireb EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN
Mushaireb winning first up 1400m last preperation
All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting