Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Rosehill is rated a Good 4 as of Friday morning with little to no rain forecast for the rest of the week. The rail goes back into the True position with the first to jump at 11:45am local time.
|Race 1 - 11:45AM OWNERS RECOGNITION RACEDAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Like the way Laburnum is going about her racing this time in. First up this Godolphin filly had the unenviable task of chasing home Smart Melody at Canterbury over 1100m, run in blistering time, before she rattled home into third at Rosehill second up when straight out to 1400m. Punters Intel reveals she slipped home her last 600m in 33.78s in that race, won by The Fire Trap, which turned into a sprint home. That run will give her a perfect grounding for 1500m third up. Many of her rivals here haven’t had the luxury of a 1400m lead up. There is a sense of timing about the daughter of Denman here, and she gets the winkers on.
Danger: Nobu comes out of that same race last start, finishing 1.2L off Laburnum. The Reliable Man colt will get better and better as he creeps out in trip. An extra 100m is unlikely to see him turn the tables but he is a promising staying prospect to keep an eye on over the spring. Thinkin’ Big is in a similar boat. The further the better so 1200m out to 1500m looks to suit. Inherit and Aliferous were both maiden winners over 1200m on debut at the provincials. The latter has a particularly stout pedigree, the dam throwing a couple of 2000m winners.
How to play it: Laburnum WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Laburnum and Nobu last start at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 12:20PM OWNER BENEFITS CARD HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
The Macallan was excellent on his Aussie debut running third for Chris Waller over 1800m. That was behind Jolly Honour, a race which you’ll remember for Hugh Bowman’s brilliant ride taking off at the 800m. The former Kiwi was left a bit flatfooted the way the race was run and emptied out the last 100m, wanting to duck in after looming to win. Not only was The Macallan a month between runs but was also having his first crack at the trip. He’s got upside this three-year-old. On the advice of James McDonald, who sticks with him here, Waller has added the winkers. He’ll strip fitter from that outing and has drawn to get the drop on the current favourite Falcon Island.
Danger: The knock on Sweet Victory is where she gets to from her outside draw. Thought she was very good last start as a three-year-old filly against her older male rivals, most of them hardened stayers. She raced in limited room but didn’t shirk her task. She is a classy filly and can win with any luck early. Confident the winner will come from those two but do concede some sort of hope to the Falcon Island. Has had the blinkers on the last two starts, the latest of those being an 8L romp at Wyong running good time home. Short enough at $2.80 though stepping up to metro company.
How to play it: The Macallan WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Macallan’s first run in Australia
|Race 3 - 12:55PM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500 METRES)|
Don’t think there is as much between Roman Typhoon ($5) and Nicconita ($2.25) as the early market suggests. They met two back in a Highway and there was not even a length between them with Nicconita running second and Roman Typhoon fourth, having found some late trouble. Both of them have gone on to win Highway races of their own since. Roman Typhoon is eight starts into his career but still very much a work in progress. The winkers went on last time and straightened him out enough for him to get home but it took all of the strength of Brenton Avdulla to coax it out of him. With Avdulla away, Kerrin McEvoy takes over so nothing lost there. The query is 1100n, 1200m, 1100m now straight out to 1500m.
Danger: The only knock on Nicconita is the price, really. She ticked the distance box last week when running a slashing second to Gitan over 1400m. That particular race was run quickly early which set it up for her to run home but is was a true test of her ability to get beyond 1200m and she passed in flying colours. The filly has raced on a nine-day turnaround previously, when second at Wagga as an odds on favourite. Don’t judge her off that though as she has come back a much better horse this campaign. Respect blueblood Pierino (Pierro x No Looking Back) for Danny Williams, who is one win away from taking the mantle from Matt Dunn as the Highway king.
How to play it: Roman Typhoon WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Roman Typhoon getting home at Rosehill
|Race 4 - 1:30PM DESTINY'S KISS SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Raqeeq was half a run short last start when second up out to 2000m. To the eye that was the case and Chris Waller and Brenton Avdulla confirmed it after the race too. He made a sustained run down the outside but found the hard-fit stablemate Vaucluse Bay too tough of a nut to crack. All honours to the winner though, covering ground throughout. Punters Intel reveals Raqeeq was the only runner in the race to break 12s home (11.90s). This four-year-old is into his second Australian preparation with Waller, and we should see the best of the import now. He steps up in grade from that last start effort but this race doesn’t look any harder on paper, plus it sees him slip into the race on the minimum with 53kg. Another ride vacated by Brenton Avdulla opens the door for Kerrin McEvoy.
Danger: Can Vaucluse Bay do it again? Back onto a firm track over 2000m saw him bounce back to form in a big way last time out. It was a monster effort with Punters Intel revealing covered an extra 17.8m in the run (6.4m more than Raqeeq) Hugh Bowman rides here and he has drawn soft. He’ll get his chance. Just Shine won well second up out to 1800m. The five-year-old has won four of his last five and you get the impression that we still haven’t seen his ceiling yet, under the care of Clare Cunningham. Screamarr looks the best roughie while Carzoff and Hallelujah Boy are not without hopes either.
How to play it: Raqeeq WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Raqeeq chasing home Vaucluse Bay
|Race 5 - 2:05PM ATC HONG KONG TOUR SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Tip Top was outstanding behind Noble Joey and She Knows first up at Randwick on a wet track. The Les Bridge-trained gelding ran the equal fastest last 600m split of the entire meeting (Punters Intel) and on the inside of the track (that was the day when the late winner were scouting to the outside fence). This horse went to a new level last preparation with wins over Reach For Heaven and Star Of Monsoon while he was luckless behind Onslaught. He is two from two second up and is drawn to get every possible chance to get the drop on the leaders. One of which looks to be the early race favourite Condor Heroes.
Danger: Piracy is a very consistent horse and has had four trials prior to resuming here (albeit with a six week gap between the first and the second one). From what we’ve seen of him to date, he does seem to thrive on racing so he’ll no doubt improve off the run but that’s not to say he can’t win here. A number of the other horses hard in the market are hard to assess. Niccolance was excellent first up in the Tip Top race after an 18 month break, but could that flatten him a touch second up? Then there is Condor Heroes who might have learnt to harness his speed having not been sighted for a year himself. Way We Go beats them all though with the undefeated six-year-old back after three years! His one trial was great.
How to play it: Tip Top EACH WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tip Top’s first up run at Randwick
|Race 6 - 2:40PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
How many more chances can we give Paret? The answer is one. Seeing is believing and this three-year-old couldn’t have done much more first up at Rosehill in what looks like a deep race. For one, it was run in faster time that Albumin’s 1200m race on the same day. It was Paret’s first run as a gelding and he settled well in the run before unleashing a big final 600m split which saw him run third behind Star Of Monsoon. Punters Intel reveals his last 600m there (33.43s) was the fastest of the entire meeting. Smartedge ran second there and has since franked the form, albeit in midweek company. He should be able to settle just worse than midfield from the draw. He won’t want to lose touch with the favourite and obvious danger Foreign Territory.
Danger: Undoubtedly it is Foreign Territory. The free-rolling gelding, with Waterhouse and Bott, is a month between runs and back from 1550m to 1400m but I don’t see that as too big a negative. The three-year-old trialled last Friday and looked particularly strong, being run down by Show A Star who was under a lot more pressure. It’s easy to forget that Foreign Territory has only had three starts. We’ve seen from his in his past two runs that he can work early before still finding a at the finish. He’ll likely being be stamped urgent from the start to hold the fence and keep You Make Me Smile, who has the blinkers on for the first time, on his outside.
How to play it: Paret WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Paret running home from last first up over 1200m
|Race 7 - 3:20PM WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES)|
Hiflyer chased bravely in the Winter Stakes and that should have the Kiwi cherry ripe for the Winter Challenge. Banking it being the pipe opener he needed ahead of stepping out over 1500m. The five-year-old was four weeks between runs there having won first up in NZ over 1200m and gets the blinkers on for the first time here. Being a Group One placegetter and a Group Three-winner, both coming last preparation, sees him again at the top of the ratings so he lumps 59.5kg but he showed last start he can carry weight. Hugh Bowman takes over and although drawn 11, there looks to be enough speed engaged for him to sweep home from a midfield position.
Danger: Invinzabeel chased home Dreamforce in the Winter Stakes, beating Hiflyer 1.4L at the finish. He has been right there in all three runs this time in without winning but it’d be no surprise to see that change here fourth up. The good track again suits. Drawn barrier 1, Blake Shinn will need the breaks at the right time in the straight. Inclined to risk Special Missile back out to 1500m and with Flow, Dark Eyes and Show A Star to keep him company up front. Could make a case for Show A Star first up here but the early petrol he’ll have to use to get across will leave him vulnerable late. That speed will suit Liapari but can he do it again?
How to play it: Hiflyer WIN ($10TAB Fixed Odds)
The Winter Stakes looks the right form reference
|Race 8 - 4:00PM ATC THANKS OWNERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Wouldn’t have ever predicted I’d be charging into Star Of Monsoon as the favourite in a BM90 at Rosehill, but here we are. You almost have to treat him like two different horses when assessing his past form. Post-gelding and pre-gelding. After being gelded he has a record of 6:3-2-1 and the latest of those, when first up at Rosehill a fortnight ago, was his best win yet. He tucked in behind the speed and really put his rivals away at this finish. That 1200m race was a length quicker than Albumin’s on the same day. Don’t expect there to be a stack of improvement up his sleeve with Gerald Ryan one of the best in the business at preparing horses to fire fresh, but Star Of Monsoon certainly won’t go backwards. Drawn perfectly so should be left without any excuses.
Danger: This is exactly the type of race Isorich can pop up in from time-to-time. His last five wins have been at the starting prices of $21, $21, $16, $41 and $13. On Saturday he is rated $21 (in from $26) with TAB Fixed Odds. It was a welcome return to form last week running a brave fourth behind Tactical Advantage despite being wide the trip on top of a solidly run race. The seven-year-old has raced on the back up with mixed success in the past but did win on a seven day turnaround back in September of last year. Out of the Albumin/Insensata race, Drachenfels might be the one worth following after he bungled the start there.
How to play it: Star Of Monsoon WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Star Of Monsoon winning well first up
|Race 9 - 4:40PM NSW RACEHORSE OWNERS ASSOCIATION TROPHY (1200 METRES)|
Oria has snuck under the radar here. She chased bravely last week to just miss behind Our Malambo. Bella Success, who also backs up here, was the runner with the flashing light there but I’m not convinced there should be such a price discrepancy between the two this week. That has largely been corrected since prices went up on Wednesday with Oria $9 into $6. This Joe Pride-trained filly found herself shuffled back in the pack last week but has shown in the past, racing on speed is more her go. There pace drawn wide in this race but that’ll give Sam Weatherley the chance to sit behind the leaders if he wants. What she lacks acceleration wise she makes up for with sheer will. She’ll run one heck of a race in this at each way odds, especially now two of the speed horses are scratched.
Danger: Those two speed runners were Zonk and Sweet Scandal. Both come out. That leaves the speed to Brook Magic also drawn wide, and will have a big hand in how quickly this race is run. She gets the blinkers on for the first time so can't see that slowing her down! That would suit Smart Amelia who looks to have found a home with Bjorn Baker, her fourth trainer, on the strength of her first up win. The same can be said for Bella Success. There is a win in her very soon but thought she might want 1400m now.
How to play it: Oria EACH WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look for the runs of Oria and Bella Success last week