By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a Good track.
|Race 1 - 12:25PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
8. Tempel One shot clear to win impressively first up at Scone over 1300m. The three-year-old stalked a slow speed so was in the right spot to win but like the way he accelerated to pick up the leader to win running away. Punters Intelligence shows his last two splits were 10.91 and 11.44 with a slick 33.85s last 600m. Second and fourth form that race have since won too. The overall time was slower than the Class 2 later on the card, where 3. Cosmic Haze ran second, but that was a fast run race. The son of Real Impact looks set to relish the 1500m and another dry track. His failure last preparation can be put down to the wet track. The barrier is the query. Tempel One has drawn very wide but there does look to be plenty of speed up top and the chance he can find a three-wide running line.
Dangers: 13. Sumdeel kept chasing at Gunnedah first up and showed glimpses of talent last preparation which culminated in a dominant Class 1 win at Wagga out to the mile. She’ll improve second up and should land in the right spot from the perfect draw. Cosmic Haze chased gamely at Scone but couldn’t reel in the winner. Had her chance but 1500m suits now. 5. Another Arli is a consistent gelding coming here on the back of a cosy maiden win at Tamworth. Bumped into Spiranac two runs prior to that, which looks a strong enough reference for this. 14. Serene Beauty is close to another win.
How to play it: Tempel One WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Tempel One winning at Scone last start
|Race 2 - 1:05PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)|
The lack of early pace in the Premier’s Cup made it impossible for anything from the rear to be anywhere near the finish so be very forgiving of 3. Grey Lion last start. Punters Intelligence highlights that it was a sprint home with Mugatoo franking the form in the Newcastle Cup. Grey Lion still clocked 33.52s for his last 600m despite running 11th. Kathy O’Hara jumps back on having won on the grey twice back in 2019 while she was also on when the nine-year-old ran third behind Taikomochi and Attention Run on a very heavy track at Randwick. Trainer Matt Smith has freshened up Grey Lion since with the tickover trial, which he won, and this formula has worked in the past for the former European. He has been out of the winner’s circle for a while but there aren’t too many ways to turn in this race. Something has to win.
Dangers: Stablemate 5. Attorney was balloted out of the 1900m benchmark race so there’s a query as to whether he is ready for the 2400m but have liked the way the import has found the line in his two runs back this time. Southern raider 6. Exemplar arguably brings the best recent form, albeit being well held by the likes of Lord Belvedere and Persan at his last two outings. He maps to get every chance in front and the early market fancies him. Punters have had their fingers burnt with Melbourne stayers Ablaze and Cadre Du Noir over the past few months. 2. Carzoff has been running fairly without threatening but Mugatoo form is likely to stack up in this.
How to play it: Grey Lion WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Grey Lion winning a recent Warwick Farm trial
|Race 3 - 1:40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
This is a perfect race for 9. Entente. Let’s start with the negative, because there is only one. The barrier. That said, if 2. Fun Fact has eyes for the lead, Entente will get a drag across. Tim Clark is the right man to have steering, however. Asides from that, there’s plenty to like about Entente third up out to 1900m for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. The four-year-old found 1200m too sharp first up but like how he held his ground through the line, before it all went very wrong second up out to 1500m. He was shuffled back throughout after jumping in the first couple before running into dead ends. The son of Dundeel isn’t a sprint home type so for him to still clock the second quickest last 200m there tells us everything we need to know about how he has come back.
Dangers: 11. Yonkers has flashed home in his two runs back and is another that sets up beautifully third up. Unlike Entente, the map looks pretty straight forward for apprentice Thomas Stockdale, claiming to bring Yonkers’ weight down to 53.5kg. Only Fituese had a fastest last 200m all day than Yonkers last start (Punters Intelligence). He was just never a hope given how slow they went up front. 14. She’s Ideel looks to have returned a genuine 2400m horse this time back but will appreciate a more genuine tempo which this race promises. Wary of both 4. Masaff and 15. Star Karen.
How to play it: Entente WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Two sectional stars are set to clash in the same race on Saturday!@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to reveal why Entente has his hoof on the till @tabcomau @SkyRacingAU @rosehillgardens pic.twitter.com/8YmBWyrDOR
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 24, 2020
|Race 4 - 2:15PM PRECISE AIR GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)|
3. Love Tap has won three country races but he couldn’t have been any more impressive. The visual brilliance of the grey gelding’s wins have been backed up on the clock with the son of American sire Tapit smashing the clock with his closing splits. Add into the mix an effortless action and he has the makings of a very smart galloper. His last two wins have been at Goulburn, winning by 4.2L over 1200m before saluting by a similar margin in Class 2 company out to 1500m four weeks later. That was at $1.07, so he was entitled to gap those rivals. Co-trainers Michael and Richard Freedman have cuddled Love Tap up until this point, with the Spring Champion Stakes always the target. He’ll measure up and cement his spot at the top of betting for that Group One feature in a fortnight.
Dangers: On Mo’unga, only he had a quicker last 200m than 2. Easy Campese in the Dulcify. Like how John Sargent’s colt ran through the line after being forced to duck and dive for a clear run late. Have mapped him to find the front in this. 7. Street Dancer got complete control at Newcastle last start to beat odds on favourite Reaching but like how he quickened and has the 1850m run under his belt. 4. Bucharest next best.
How to play it: Love Tap WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"He is the real deal and confident he’ll cement his spot at the top of betting for the Spring Champion."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 24, 2020
|Race 5 - 2:50PM SCHWEPPES HERITAGE STAKES (1100 METRES)|
1. Wild Ruler draws perfectly in this and is well placed under the set weights plus penalties of this race. First up last preparation he gave Macroura 4.5kg and went down narrowly, defying a huge betting drift. He then ran Rothfire to 1.4L at Eagle Farm before everything went wrong in the JJ Atkins which resulted in him racing wide and keenly.
Dangers: 2. Destination covered ground last start at Rosehill over 1100m and to be nailed by Prime Star. The pair scooted home in sharp time and although Prime Star was subsequently well held by Athiri, he still ran well. He’ll be cuddled up from the inside and saved for the last crack. 10. Forbidden Love fits into this race well being the highest rated runner in the field and ran well against two very good filles last start. Drops back in trip but that looks to suit if anything. 14. Pazienza was beaten as a $2.15 favourite in a Class 1 at Kembla Grange last start but once she couldn’t cross and had to take hold it was race over for her.
How to play it: Wild Ruler ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Wild Ruler trialling with Marboosha (scratched)
|Race 6 - 3:30PM IRON JACK SHANNON STAKES (1500 METRES)|
5. I Am Superman has found the perfect race to launch an Epsom bid. The five-year-old was trialling brilliantly prior to his first up run but both hitouts were on the synthetic which can be misleading but Peter and Paul Snowden elected to send him to Melbourne and he won well at Caulfield. He didn’t get a run in the G1 Sir Rupert Clark so here he is back in Sydney. The key to this import is dry tracks. He didn’t go a yard on wet ground last preparation. Suspect he is a much better horse than the one we saw over the autumn though. Kerrin McEvoy should be able to park the sprinter-miler just in behind what should be a genuine speed with a blinkered 3. Quackerjack coming across from the wide draw while Waterhouse and Bott’s pair won’t be far away.
Dangers: 12. Nudge took the shortcuts to run third first up but like the way she closed over 1200m. Has been four weeks between runs straight out to 1500m. 6. Looks Like Elvis brings the strongest form lines into this and finished alongside Rock in the G2 Tramway last start. Hasn't won for a long time. 8. Scarlet Dream could be a knockout. She is also a deadest dry track. The widest barrier dictates her settling position, however. There’s also cases to be made for fellow backmarkers 14. Yamazaki and 2. Niccanova.
How to play it: I Am Superman WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
I Am Superman’s trial prior to his Caulfield win
|Race 7 - 4:10PM DE BORTOLI WINES GOLDEN ROSE (1400 METRES)|
How do you deny 1. Rothfire after what he did in The Run To The Rose? The last four horses to come through the Run To The Rose to win the Golden Rose all won it (Hallowed Crown, Exosphere, Astern and Bivouac). The Queenslander rode the hot speed set by Farnan, dragging his rivals up to the tearaway leader before holding a margin. The little query in trusting that form is this is a completely different scenario with a different lead speed and out to 1400m. Do like the map for him, however, with 9. Yardstick, the designated leader, drawn to his immediate inside. Rothfire parks outside of the lead meaning all of his rivals again will have to give him a head start. On what we saw last start, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to run him down.
Dangers: The only horse with a faster last 600m than Rothfire was 4. Ole Kirk. He was suited by the hot speed having parked out the back but his 32.84 was sizzling, and the quickest across the entire meeting. Should be able to settle closer from the lower draw. Suspect Team Hawkes stabelmate 2. North Pacific is the runner most likely to jump out of the ground off his Run To The Rose third. He was four weeks between runs and this yard will have him peaking. 3. Mamaragan was run off his feet by Farnan and gets a much better set up out to 1400m and drawn barrier 1. 7. Peltzer has beaten Mamaragan home both times this preparation but that’s after being forced to settle behind him in running.
How to play it: Rothfire WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Rothfire winning the Run To The Rose
|Race 8 - 4:50PM KIA GOLDEN PENDANT (1400 METRES)|
2. Haut Brion Her won the Sheraco with a showing off sustained speed with nine of her rivals needing to turn the tables on her from that. The five-year-old absorbed a lot of early pressure and was there to be gunned down late but she was simply too good, and has the makings of a top liner hence The TAB Everest rumblings. Given the Zoustar mare was nearly a year between runs, she can only improve. She has drawn off the track but with 4. Sweet Deal drawn a couple of barriers inside she’s likely to get a cart across. Her record now reads nine starts for six wins and three seconds and the 1400m trip holds no fears (3:2-1-0). In fact, it’s probably her best trip as it allows her really lean on her best asset, which is her high-cruising speed.
Dangers: Sweet Deal ran a 10.05s between the 1000m and 800m in the Sheraco! To only fade late to be beaten 2.3L was a brave effort. If John Thompson’s mare gets more control here she is dangerous as she is a classy mare capable of exploding on top of the speed. Gets another dry track too. 6. Evalina missed the kick in the Sheraco, scooted up the inside before peeling widest in the run. Conversely, how flattered were 10. Subpoenaed and 7. Jen Rules there taking short cuts up the fence? We’ve seen enough of Subpoenaed to know that she can reel off exceptional late splits. 14. Emeralds got too far back in the Mona Lisa around the tight Wyong track last start. She brings a different form line.
How to play it: Haut Brion Her WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Haut Brion Her winning the Sheraco first up
|Race 9 - 5:25PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
2. Bottega was among the nominations for the G2 Shannon Stakes and the four-year-old wouldn’t have been out of place there. Instead Gerald Ryan opts for a 1400m BM88. It’s a deep race but he’s a smart horse. He burst onto the scene towelling up Brandenburg on debut at Newcastle. Last preparation he just missed to Entente in the Carbine on a heavy track, despite preferring firmer ground before savaging the line behind Kinane in the Frank Packer Plate. It was then onto Randwick where he beat up his older rivals. You get the drift. Ryan has said he’s bullish about the way the son of Snitzel has returned this preparation and although running last in his one trial, he was climbing over heels late. Have to play at the early price.
Dangers: We’re a forgiving bunch us punters. 5. Masked Crusader has been rolled at $1.90 and then $1.95 second up. Here we are again. That said, he was outstanding when second to Varda first up running the fastest closing splits all day before a wide run took it’s toll last start. The 1100m to 1400m isn’t an ideal set up, however. Dubbo-based galloper 12. Sneak Preview hit the line hard against the bias at Dubbo last start. He is flying. Could he potentially jag the last Kosciuszko spot? 1. Prime Candidate had to cart the field up to Partners last Saturday in a fast run race. Forgive him that. 8. Rocha Clock is in the mix, even though there’s sure to be improvement to come second up while 6. Mount Tabora can bounce back.
How to play it: Bottega EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bottega trialling at Rosehill
All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday