By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 8m and the form has been done for a soft track.
|Race 1 - 11:45AM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Loved the way 2. Smart Image flattened out to attack the line to win on debut at Warwick Farm, when he finally saw clear air. There was a huge gap back to third. The Smart Missile colt didn’t have much gate speed, which is the only niggle on his talent, but with the benefit of barrier 2 and Hugh Bowman in the saddle, he’s unlikely to be any worse than midfield. His overall time was significantly faster than the three-year-old race at the same meeting. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained youngster had put the writing on the wall in his trials displaying a brilliant turn of foot. Has a stack of upside, is in the right hands to keep progressing through to better races and with the speed likely to be genuine up front, he’s going to be running right through the line.
Dangers: Terrified of 3. Bravado . He thundered home from last over 1000m at Kembla on debut to grab La Foret on the line. He clocked 33.28s for his last 600m and was so dominant late. The time was slick and La Foret, although since beaten at Canterbury, was only just shaded in a race run in faster overall time than Yardstick. The start he’ll give away is the only concern. 10. Shaik ran very well behind North Pacific last start while 11. Duchess warrants respect too. Danny Williams hasn’t hid his admiration for 7. Hot ‘N’ Hazy but he has been priced on hype which is a dangerous recipe for punters. It’d be no shock to see him win given how well he trialled at Goulburn but he’d need to have improved considerably on what he produced at Wagga on debut. 12. Sunborn looks the forgotten runner.
How to play it: Smart Image WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) and Bravado WIN ($9) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Smart Image winning at Warwick Farm on debut
|Race 2 - 12:20PM XTRAVAGANT AT NEWHAVEN PARK SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
9. Willowheart is two from two first up and it’s no coincidence that the three-year-old filly found the front in both of those wins. Tommy Berry holds the trump card of drawing directly inside of the only other speed horse 6. Lillemor. This race could be won or lost in the first 200m. Fresh last campaign Willowheart held off her rivals at Canterbury before being tardily away second up when a distant third behind subsequent G2 Arrowfield Stakes winner Splintex. Thought she boxed on bravely given she never looked comfortably travelling in behind horses. Forget her run thereafter. Has trialled up well at Rosehill recently with little separating her and stablemate 8. Super Oasis at the finish.
Dangers: 4. In Lighten Me collared odds on favourite Valdostana at Warwick Farm first up and was even better second up last preparation so if she trends the same way, will give this a big shake. Even better suited out to 1200m. Super Oasis camped in behind the speed at Canterbury first up last preparation when nailing Intrepidacious on the post, and she maps to get a similar run from the inside draw here. Her history suggests that fresh is best being 3:2-1-0 first up. 6. Lillemor is hard fit, makes her own luck and is very honest. The bonus is the 3kg claim bringing her down to 53.5kg. Has probably found her level but this is a winnable race.
How to play it: Willowheart WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Willowheart and Super Oasis trialling recently
|Race 3 - 12:55PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 PLATE (1500 METRES)|
9. Zakeriz did an enormous job to finish second to Rothenburg last start in a Highway Handicap given the race was set up for closers. Rothenburg ran quicker overall time than the Listed Winter Stakes and four of the top five home settled 10th or worse. Zakeriz was the exception having camped in behind the speed. He was beaten three lengths but there was another 1.5L back to third. This is another Class 3 and doesn’t look any harder. The five-year-old won his prior two starts to that run. All three of his recent runs, which have been the best of his career, have been on heavy tracks so keep an eye on the rating come Saturday morning. He has only had six starts so there’s still upside. Apprentice Josh Richards has been entrusted with the ride, and has only had two rides on town in the past, which is a query but we’re getting double figure odds.
Dangers: 5. Group Think hit the line well in the Grafton Guineas last start after being forced to go back to last from a wide draw. Little question mark coming back to 1500m as the son of So You Think might even want 2000m now but he has drawn better here and will be very strong late. 8. Vibrant Knight has won both of his starts this time back, draws barrier 1 to park in the first four, perhaps even lead, and Hugh Bowman rides. The winkers go on too. It sets up well but the overall times from both wins haven’t set the world on fire. 4. Morpheus ran right through the line to win at Mudgee last start. Jumps out in trip but has always had the talent. Ran second to Dealmaker as a two-year-old when $1.75 favourite.
How to play it: Zakeriz EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Zakeriz running second to Rothenburg last start
|Race 4 - 1:30PM JULY SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
7. Star Boy was flying last preparation. Has had an eight week freshen since we saw him run second to Dirty Work over this same track and trip where the winner smashed the clock late. Dirty Work ran a sizzling 32.53s last 600m. It made Star Boy look second rate but he went very well having sat outside of Villami. Drawn barrier 4 here, with 3. Eduardo on his outside, Glyn Schofield will have the option of leading this field up. The Brett Cavanough-trained gelding trialled nicely on his home deck at Scone recently suggesting he can pick up where he left off. The five-year-old has had seven starts over the 1100m and never finished outside of the top two. Might be able to pinch this from the front with 54kg on his back given how the Rosehill 1100m can tend to favour those on speed.
Dangers: Joe Pride will be out to make a statement with new recruit 3. Eduardo. Trialled up well showing a stack of speed and Nash Rawiller rides. Banking on this race being leader dominated. The main knock on 6. Roheryn is the price. Has been kept fresh since keeping his unbeaten first up record intact, which looks to suit. The ease of his win may have been a touch flattering though as the rest of the field were faltering late. 2. Glenall next best.
How to play it: Star Boy WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Could this @cavanoughracing speedster give some cheek on Saturday?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 23, 2020
|Race 5 - 2:05PM ASX REFINITIV CHARITY FOUNDATION HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
1. Korcho handled this grade last start and although he jumps 2.5kg from that, he still has all-important upside when it comes to assessing stayers at this level. The British import is still in his first Australian preparation and keen to see what unfolds as he steps out to 2400m for the first time in his 15 start career. The four-year-old got too far out of his ground two back behind Mount Popa before Nash Rawiller gave the son of Teronado a lovely ride at Rosehill last time out to beat New Arrangement and My Swashbuckler. Most of his rivals here have reached their level whereas there might be better things ahead for Korcho. Rawiller, coming off two of the best rides you’ll see at Canterbury on Wednesday, will be riding with plenty of confidence.
Dangers: 12. Shangani Patrol went very quickly through the early stages of his last start sixth but was only beaten 2.8 lengths. Gets in light again and will be out to pinch this from the front once more. 7. Loveseat was no match for Sweet Thomas when we last saw her race in the Stayers Cup over two miles but loved her tickover trial since. With four weeks between runs, she’ll be fresh enough to cope with the drop back to 2400m. Plenty of the usual suspects are here with 3. Desert Path just coming up short behind Tigre Royale last start when well backed while 5. Birth Of Venus can bounce back after more was expected from her last start. 8. Nemingah for the exotics.
How to play it: Korcho WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Korcho winning last start over 2000m
|Race 6 - 2:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
3. Travest shouldn’t have lost any admirers despite suffering defeat for the first time last start. The promising three-year-old was set mission impossible from the wide draw in an on speed dominated finish. That was no surprise given how the pace slackened in the middle stages. As they rolled into the home straight the leaders slipped clear of Travest and he has an enormous margin to chase down in just 400m. His last 400m of 24.30 was two lengths faster than the next best and four lengths faster than the winner Edison. We saw what this son of Tavistock was capable of doing first up when producing a devastating finish to put his rivals away. He showed gate speed on that occasion too so don’t be too quick to peg him as a backmaker. Expect Berry to use that inside draw to settle in the first half.
Dangers: Let him rip! If those are the instructions to Louise Day when she is legged aboard 1. Frosty Rocks he’ll give a massive sight. The three-year-old grey is hard fit now so we could see the tactics we saw at Warwick Farm three starts ago. 4. Rothenburg hasn’t been helped by a tricky barrier but on the strength of his last start Highway win with 59kg, where he clocked faster time than the Listed Winter Stakes, he warrants plenty of respect. Have no doubt he can transition straight into benchmark company off that. 6. Dancing Gidget has clearly returned better than ever off her first up romp and but the race was run to suit and the form out of that race since hasn’t been flash (six runs for one placing). 11. Tickler the best knockout.
How to play it: Travest WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Travest had too much to do last start
|Race 7 - 3:25PM IRON JACK WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES)|
4. Order Again gets the most suitable set up he’s had all preparation. After running well over the mile at his first run for Chris Waller the former Queenslander dropped back to 1350m for the Civic Stakes and then crept out to 1400m for the Winter Stakes most recently. The six-year-old ran so well given the distance queries. A fortnight ago he struck trouble half way down the straight before unleashing what was comfortably the fastest last 200m in the race (Punters Intelligence). Stepping out to 1500m he gets the chance to knock one of these winter features off. Gets a weight swing on 6. Noble Boy but it was the ride that proved the difference. There does look to be a spot in behind the leaders if Sam Clipperton can drive him out early.
Dangers: No knock on Noble Boy. Took him a couple of runs under Clare Cunningham to find his old form but now he’s found it, expect him to hold it. 1. Taikomochi and 9. Special Missile are the two leaders with Taikomochi getting control in the Winter Stakes last start to hold down second. Potentially flattens off a touch second up. Special Missile gets better and better into his preparation and looks ready to win now having nearly stolen the Glasshouse Handicap in a hit and run mission. Will be vulnerable the last 100m to something camped on his back though. 3. Mugatoo and 5. Girl Tuesday will be the closers. Mugatoo is a very talented animal but as the early favourite, have to be against him. 7. Dealmaker is always thereabouts.
How to play it: Order Again WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Black Magnum trialling at Randwick recently
|Race 8 - 4:05PM EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
2. Prime Candidate should be at his top now third up after spending nine months on the sidelines. The lightly-raced five-year-old has built an imposing record of five wins from his 11 starts and looks well placed to add to that tally here. He knocked up late first up behind Roheryn before improving sharply second up when runner up to Inanup. Given the amount of work he had to do between the 1000m to the 600m to put himself into the race, before covering ground throughout, he did an enormous job to get as close as he did. Especially on a heavy track. He won’t get control of this race but the barrier does give Tim Clark options. Third up last preparation it took a sizzling finish from Sweet Deal to run him down. Looks cherry ripe and one of the better bets across the meeting.
Dangers: 9. Outback Diva goes up in grade and faces the boys but her last start third was better than it reads on paper. The race was on speed dominated and Zourhea, four lengths behind her, came out and franked the form. Plummets to just 51kg after the claim. 8. Rari sat outside of a very hot speed at Randwick last start and was entitled to fold up late. Should be nearing full fitness, which is significant for a horse that needs to be ridden ‘ugly’. 4. Poetic Charmer and 1. True Detective look to have their work cut out turning the tables on Prime Candidate. Import 7. New King trialled nicely at Moruya recently and beat Mubariz by 13 lengths the last time he raced. 3. The Kingdom Come is right in this too.
How to play it: Prime Candidate WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"Looks well placed to add to his already impressive record."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 24, 2020
|Race 9 - 4:45PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
The form guide reads that 9. Minted won a Newcastle Class 1 by 0.5L last start. It was the manner in which he won which made it so impressive, though. The three-year-old fluffed the start which saw him settle out the back, before looping the field to win rather comfortably in the end. Punters Intelligence shows his last 600m of 34.02s was two lengths quicker than the next best. There was plenty to like about his close. The question that lingers is why we haven’t seen him since with seven weeks between runs. Has trialled nicely since then to keep the engine ticking over. Won a midweeker last preparation so he is city class and this race lacks depth. Tim Clark won’t waste the inside draw with Minted mapped to stalk the speed.
Dangers: 5. Varda has been arrogant in both wins back this time in and finds a very winnable BM78 to make it three on the bounce. The knocks are where she gets to from the wide draw with plenty of speed kicking up from her inside and the short price. No knock on her talent though and loved how she extended last start having sat outside of the leader. Speaking of leaders, 11. Partners will be out to pinch this race again from the front while 12. He’s A Hotshot could improve sharply on a dry track having finished a long way off Partners last start. 3. Prairie Fire fell agonisingly short after setting out after Spaceboy last Saturday and 1000-1100m looks his right range.
How to play it: Minted EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Minted winning at Newcastle last start
All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday