Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
All eyes will be on short-priced favourite Avilius in the G3 Premier’s Cup (1900m) at Rosehill Gardens after the Godolphin import was outstanding on his Australian debut. The rail is out 6m the entire and the track is rated Soft 5 on Friday morning, although keep an eye on the weather with drizzly rain forecast for Saturday. The first is set to jump at 12pm.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM HACHEM MANAGEMENT GROUP HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Mandylion should be right at her top now third up. The four-year-old mare has boxed on bravely in both runs back to run second and third in the right profile of races to be winning this. She carries her share of weight but drops back in grade. The manner in which she races, cruising along out in front, means she needs a good fitness base. Sam Weatherley made a comment that after her last start third that she is getting better at settling so hopefully the two runs back knocks the freshness out of her and she can settle into a rhythm and pinch this race. A mile winner in the past, the 1500m holds no fears nor does the threat of a wet track. If it is wet, the confidence levels only increase. She is undefeated both times she has struck a surface with some give.
Danger: All Too Soon was any eye-catcher first up to run fifth in the same race as Mandylion. Punters Intel reveals her last 600m split of 34.56s was two lengths superior to anything else in the race. The four-year-old won in town second up last preparation but was straight out to 1800m on that occasion. Just worried with the freshness gone from her legs, she’ll be looking for further than the 1500m she is presented with here. Eugene’s Pick is the most lightly-raced galloper in the field. She has won her last two starts, at Goulburn and Kembla, in emphatic fashion. She has to be respected but is too hard in the market given she is unproven at this level. How many more chances can we give Bella Success?
How to play it: Mandylion WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
"She looks ready to win now third up..."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 23, 2018
|Race 2 - 12:35PM FIIG HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Impavido was in desperate need of a win and although Bjorn Baker had to drop him back to a Gosford Class 1 to get it, the Warwick Farm-based trainer got the desired result. The five-year-old, who ran a luckless fourth in the Randwick Guineas back in 2017, gave his rivals the touch up the market predicted, being sent to the post $1.40. Prior to that he whacked away behind Avilius at Randwick to run sixth. That was a BM91 and considerably deeper than this BM78, featuring a lot of the usual suspects you’d find in a 2000m Saturday race. Going back a run before that he was a narrow second to Sparky Lad. The son of High Chaparral hasn’t set the world on fire since promising so much as a three-year-old but he won’t find a more suitable race to go back-to-back. The sting out of the track only enhances his claims too.
Danger: This is a tricky race to assess but what I’m comfortable in suggesting is that Chief Kidder will be your leader. He is a free-wheeling type so expect him to roll along to open the field up again. Instead of letting him come back to the field turning for him this time, I’d like to see Jay Ford go for broke and try to pinch it at the top of the straight. As we saw from outsider Segenhoe in this same sort of race last Saturday, often the horses in behind the leader don’t have the turn of foot to make up the necessary ground and they all just hold their spot to the line. Valentino Rossa might be the exception to that. He can rattle home but has a nasty habit of finding traffic problems.
How to play it: Impavido WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Impavido winning at Gosford last start
|Race 3 - 1:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Common Purpose has won two from two this preparation, after a year off, since the blinkers have been applied. The five-year-old has always been a talent. Last preparation he started favourite ahead of Special Missile in a Hawkesbury Class 1. Last start at Goulburn he took the scalp of Nuke, who subsequently won at Canterbury beating Bubbles’n’troubles and Gentle Persuasion. It was a red-hot leader track that day but he is a deserved favourite in this week’s Highway Handicap on the back of that effort. He has drawn off the track but should be able to carve across to settle in the first few. Hugh Bowman rides, so the John Bateman-trained gelding is in very good hands.
Danger: Kurt Goldman has always had a big opinion of Equal Balance. He has shown glimpses to justify that in his 10-run career to date but struggled for consistency. He powered to the line to win at Wagga first up last preparation over 1000m before his form tapered off. The four-year-old trialled at Rosehill and looked sharp, running on behind smart mare Savatiano. Imagine he’d be pretty tuned up here to put his name in lights for a slot in The Kosciuszko. Wary of Highway Sixtysix but certainly take on board Danny Williams’ comments that she is a touch underdone. That was the case when she won last start too though. Don’t discount her class getting her home again.
How to play it: Common Purpose WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Common Purpose beating Nuke at Goulburn
|Race 4 - 1:55PM LINDT HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Sanglier isn’t a horse we’ve seen much of in New South Wales. Of his six starts only one has been here, and he won at Wyong beating subsequent Listed winner Let Me Sleep On It. Don’t let the Godolphin colt get under your guard though as he looks beautifully placed in this against the older horses. New season three-year-olds get a handy allowance. It’s generally a good edge for punters at this time of year. He carries 53kg, is drawn to get the gun run and has the services of Kerrin McEvoy. First up at Moonee Valley he didn’t have a great deal of room and once clear others in the race already had the momentum to sweep past him. He was luckless in Adelaide last preparation in a Listed race too. It’s an even bunch of sprinters but he profiles perfectly for this.
Danger: Single Bullet resumes a gelding. We’ll learn a lot post-Saturday about him but he is probably a generous enough price at $4.80 in this grade to find out before then. As a colt, when he was on his game he was one of he better sprinters of his age around, but he mixed a number of shockers into his form too. Back in September last year he ran second to Viridine over 1100m first up with Albumin back in third. That’d win this. He isn’t a big horse though so the 61.5kg is a worry. Is he a 8.5kg better animal than Sanglier who has a run under his belt? I’m willing to gamble no but Single Bullet goes in as second pick. Za Zi Ba is an honest mare while as the early favourite, She Knows looks vulnerable first up with a massive weight.
How to play it: Sanglier WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Single Bullet’s last trial at Warwick Farm
|Race 5 - 2:30PM SINGAPORE AIRLINES SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100 METRES)|
It’s time for a three-year-old colt to come out and make a statement as the Golden Rose field will start to take shape. It could be Performer. He has shown glimpses of brilliance in his first two wins before it all fell apart. He tossed the rider in the Todman and then didn’t fire a shot in the Golden Slipper. Plenty of star colts have done that before though (Astern, Exosphere, Epaulette...). Don’t read too much into Performer’s trials as he is a race day horse only doing was he has to do. Neutrality looked full of running in his trials (even if a touch keen) so he should generate enough speed to offset the tricky draw for Performer. Punters Intel reveals that in his narrow Canonbury win, where the leaders crawled in front, he ran home in 33.05s for his last 600m and clocked 10.67s for his last 200m. Let’s hope we see that engine again on Saturday.
Danger: I wasn’t overly taken with The Rosebud, where the time wasn’t flash, which leaves a slight query over Plague Stone. He is a talented colt though. Graff is two from two and gets the blinkers on for the first time to coax him through the flat spot we’ve seen him hit in the past. He should get the run of the race and looks a big threat. As mentioned, Neutrality will be the one to catch and looks most suited of those hard in the market over the 1100m. They'll be coming at him the last 100m though. Ringerdingding was excellent in The Rosebud while want to keep Tchaikovsky very safe despite giving the impression he’ll want further.
How to play it: Performer WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Performer winning the Canonbury back in February
|Race 6 - 3:05PM VISIT MONACO MING DYNASTY (1400 METRES)|
Signore Fox put the writing on the wall in his trials before the Snowden stable opted to kick his campaign off on a winning note at the provincials. He put a space on his rivals and ran some slick closing splits. The second horse there Homework has comfortably won at Newcastle since despite being beaten 3.3L by Signore Fox. Although Signore Fox’s two-year-old form doesn’t jump off the page, he didn’t have a great deal of luck so be forgiving. The son of Exceed And Excel is one of very few in this race that has an established pattern of going forward too. He is versatile in that way but if Kerrin McEvoy can have him parked outside of the likely leader in Danawi, he’ll take holding out. There doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed engaged otherwise so if they ride him quiet Danawi should get complete control.
Danger: For that reason alone Danawi will be hard to peg back. He has had every chance sectional-wise to win his last two starts but found one better. It has taken a couple of exceptional wins from Military Zone and then Master Ash for him to be collared though. The tempo of a 1400m race will be right up his alley now. Onthetake’s last start third behind Danawi has her in the mix here for Clare Cunningham. She’ll be last from the draw which makes her hard to tip with any conviction but she has her hoof on the till.
How to play it: Signore Fox WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Signore Fox dominating at Hawkesbury
|Race 7 - 3:45PM NEW CALEDONIA TRAVEL CONNECTION PREMIER'S CUP (1900 METRES)|
Wowee. That was the general feeling after Avilius won on his Australian debut. He gave his rivals a start and a beating at Randwick over 1600m. Punters Intel tells the story. The import ran his last 600m in 32.66s, which was three lengths faster than anything else in the race. Breaking down that last 600m makes for even more impressive reading with an 11.07s between the 600-400, before he ran 10.64s for the 400-200m and sustained that to the line clocking 10.95s for the last 200m. Glyn Schofield took his foot of the accelerator the last 50m too. That win rocketed him into favourite with TAB for The Metropolitan ($4.60). This is an important step in justifying that price, tackling a Group Three 1900m assignment second up. Could he be flat here after such a big fresh showing? That’s the only possibly knock and admittedly, it feels like I’m clutching. He is three weeks between runs. He’s too classy for these so the 53kg weight looks luxurious.
Danger: I Am Serious was a sectional star herself first up. Punters Intel reveals her last 600m was 34.12s to run second to Flow. That form has been franked with Flow running second in Thursday’s Rowley Mile. She is a mare that tends to springboard off her first up runs too. She only had a seven week break between preparations this time in which might negate that however it’ll certainly be in her favour straight out to 1900m. Still thinking she might be half a run short though, especially being untried at the trip. Sons Of John was much better than the sixth suggests in the Premiers Cup Prelude and he finally draws a soft gate to be handier.
How to play it: Avilius WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Wondering why Avilius is so short in @tabcomau Premier's Cup market?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 23, 2018
|Race 8 - 4:25PM THE CEO MAGAZINE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
I’m an unabashed Trekking fan but can’t justify the price difference between him and Miss Que. It’s $3 vs $6.50 and TAB went up $7.50 Miss Que! She’s a classy mare and ran second to both Osborne Bulls and Sugar Bella last preparation. There was little between Trekking and Miss Que first up with Miss Que running the fastest last 600m split (33.69s) of the entire day (Punters Intel). She peaked on her run the last 200m. In the defense of Trekking, he was exposed the entire race and Miss Que had his back but she gets 2.5kg off him here and even more significantly, draws to settle a few pairs closer than him in the run. I’d imagine Corey Brown will be keen to make use of barrier 2. They ran sharp time in that Trekking race, five lengths quicker than The Rosebud and Dal Cielo has already franked the form in Queensland. Think it will prove a handy form reference.
Danger: Trekking has that winning feeling now and it’d be no surprise to see him make the leap to Group company over the spring. Like how he kept driving to the line there first up despite a torrid run. Not sure where he gets to from the draw, perhaps three-wide with cover is his ideal map. He can win again, no doubt. Big watch on the resuming Renewal. Would be surprised if the Hawkes stable want to push the button from the wide draw but it’s his best chance of winning the race. Might be one for next time. Liked his trial though and he’s a horse I’m keen to follow. Some claims Intuition and Don’t Give A Damn.
How to play it: Miss Que WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Round one of Trekking vs Miss Que (last start Rosehill)
|Race 9 - 5:05PM PACIFIC BOATING HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Paret continues his march towards a possible Epsom berth. Whether he is up to that level remains to be seen but from what we’ve seen on him this preparation, having returned a gelding, is that he is better than a Saturday benchmark horse. This field is no deeper than the one he accounted for last start at Rosehill over 1350m, with Punters Intel revealing his last 600m was 34.01s. Only half a length faster than Gitan but four lengths superior to the third best. His ability to put the race away between the 400-200m was evident again with a 10.95s split winning the race. There is a real dearth of speed engaged but all that will mean for Paret is Hugh Bowman will be able to creep into the race a little earlier. Not overly concerned on that front.
Danger: The only horse I’m wary of is stablemate Eagle Bay. The ex Kiwi was heavily-backed on his Australian debut for Chris Waller back in March but didn’t fire a shot. Where there is smoke there is fire though. His second up run was just as plain but after a spell, he rocketed to the line first up this time in. He was ridden cold from the wide draw before steaming home his last 200m in 11s flat (Punters Intel). The 1500m is still on the short side for him second up but I expect him to run a big race here with James McDonald on. He should be able to settle midfield. Mapmaker was a solid winner last start and should be aided by the lack of speed here. He might even lead if Samadoubt, who ran on Wednesday, isn’t here.
How to play it: Paret WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Paret putting his rivals away last start