By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
The rail is out 8m 1400m to the winning post and 5m the remainder. The form has been done for a soft/good track.
|Race 1 - 11:15AM ELITE SAND & SOIL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Despite sitting outside of the lead in the run, finishing second on debut, 6. Military Expert still went to the line with more to offer. A slow 600-400m split saw the race turn into a sprint home which played into the hands of 2. King Of Sparta. Punters Intelligence reveals that once Military Expert clicked through his gears, his last 200m was marginally quicker than the winner. He gets his chance to turn the tables. Love the way the colt had trialled prior to that at Wyong. The barrier here looks a little tricky with at least two other obvious speed horses drawn underneath him but it forces Berry’s hand to be aggressive early, and given how Military Expert raced on debut that could play to his stamina.
Dangers: 7. Silent Impact won a 1000m maiden at Goulburn on debut but there was plenty of substance on the clock. Certainly enough to suggest he can bring that form straight to town. Drawn to lead and gets Tim Clark on board. King Of Sparta will give away a start but he is yet to taste defeat as a gelding, including his two eye-catching trials. 12. Sir Crackle was hard in the market on debut but was trapped deep on speed. He was beaten five lengths but like the way he stuck on. Will get a much softer run from the inside in this. 4. Coastwatch resumes a gelding and there’s has been a lot to like about his two trials. Was a luckless third behind Converge back in December.
How to play it: Military Expert WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
King Of Sparta and Military Expert battling it out
|Race 2 - 11:50AM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 PLATE (1500 METRES)|
12. Bondi Blue offers up a different form line to those hard in the market. The four-year-old has had three starts for Gayna Williams, having been transferred from the Snowden yard. He ran third to The Face at Gosford and a couple of starts later finished alongside Seleque at Newcastle. They were maidens but that’s proved to be city class benchmark form. First up this preparation he ran on into second behind even money favourite Yangarra Rose, a filly that subsequently ran a luckless fifth in town. Bondi Blue then ran fifth in a BM64 at Hawkesbury. Long story short, his form is good enough to give this Class 3 a nudge despite having only won one race and he maps beautifully.
Dangers: Stablemate 11. Zoo Station was never a hope behind From The Bush last start given the way the track played and the shape of the race. Punters Intelligence reveals his last 600m was equal to that of the runner up Casino Kid. Draws to settle closer and like the step out to 1500m. It’s a similar case for 2. Dream Runner coming through that same Highway. Thought the run of Zoo Station had a touch more merit but James McDonald jumps on Dream Runner and he should be at his top now third up. This has been a target race for 1. Bold And Wild and being put into the race last start saw him produce the best run of his preparation. Expect similar aggressive tactics.
How to play it: Bondi Blue EACH WAY ($19 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bondi Blue’s second to Yangarra Rose
|Race 3 - 12:25PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Lightly-raced three-year-old 5. Black Bolt profiles well here second up out to 1500m and with a draw that should see him park close enough to take advantage of the lack of speed engaged. He resumed at Hawkesbury, running third as a drifting favourite, but he lumped 60kg and was tightened when attempting to pinch an inside run. His form suggests, albeit with limited exposure, that he is more comfortable on a firmer surface too. Liked what the son of Savabeel did last preparation, winning twice as the provincials in good style before running third behind subsequent Queensland Derby winner Kukeracha at Eagle Farm. This isn’t a deep race. Shouldn’t have any excuses.
Dangers: 7. Alvin The Bold was knocked off by 3. Go Troppo last start at Randwick but in his favour here is the 1.5kg swing at the weights and more significantly, the prospect of rolling across from the wide draw before controlling this race from in front. Go Troppo is chasing three straight. 6. Yiyi was posted the early favourite being a last start winner and with Waller/McDonald but his best form has been on heavy tracks. That perhaps flattered him at Newcastle first up so wary now on a firmer surface. 4. Bazooka continues to race well without winning. 11. Yasmeena could improve sharply out in trip.
How to play it: Black Bolt WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Black Bolt first up at Hawkesbury
|Race 4 - 1:00PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS JULY SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
The 1100m is far from the optimum trip for 5. All Time Legend but he did win well first up over 1200m last preparation, albeit in BM78 company. Everything else suits, however. The four-year-old maps to settle in the first couple, which looks a big advantage here, he carries 53kg and still has upside. The last time was saw All Time Legend at the races he started $1.80 against Shared Ambition. He was beaten but through no fault of his own with Sikandarabad carving him up in front. That was out to the mile. He ran sixth in his one barrier trial but liked the way he went through the line for regular rider Kerrin McEvoy, who strikes at 26% lifetime when he combines with Les Bridge.
Dangers: 1. Trumbull is the class runner but can he give All Time Legend 8kg and a head start and beat him? It was only three starts ago that he won the Sydney Stakes. Has tuned up for his return with two great trials, missing the start in the first of those. The wide draw is perfect as he’ll be last to load and it gives Tommy Berry options if he jumps cleanly. If he does happen to ping out, he’s the horse to beat. 6. Chat will be strong late and was an impressive winner fresh last preparation. Big watch 7. Barbaric. Forget his last start as he pulled up with issues.
How to play it: All Time Legend WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
All Time Legend first up last preparation
|Race 5 - 1:35PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
On what we have seen from 1. Harpo Marx this time back, he is too good for this grade. His sectionals first and second up this preparation have suggested that this imported stayer has returned better than ever and that was confirmed last start at Randwick out to 2000m. Despite being jagged back to last on the heavy track, on which was proving hard to make ground on, he won going away on the line, with 6. Montabot working home into third. The handicapper didn’t miss him afterwards but the claim of Tom Sherry sees him stay in the same grade with 60.5kg on his back. Should be last from the better draw here and out to 2400m is ideal. Expect him to win again.
Dangers: More was expected from 2. No Compromise last start behind 3. Spencer but perhaps he is just starting to reach his level now. He did start $2.40 favourite and beat Lackeen and Stockman in his two starts prior. 10. Sound Of Cannons was a luckless third behind that duo three weeks ago and staying down in the weights from the cosy draw he gets his chance to atone. 4. Kaapfever and 12. Poulton Le Sands warrant respect at odds through that same form line. 8. Commander Bell was only fair in the Grafton Cup but his form prior was great. 13. Arabolini could give a sight.
How to play it: Harpo Marx WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Harpo Marx last start over 2000m
|Race 6 - 2:10PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Having a throw at the stumps with 13. Arousal. Be very forgiving of her first up failure on a heavy track. She was first up for over a year and clearly didn’t handle the shifty track. Like the way she trialled prior to that. The four-year-old has only had four career starts so the gamble is that she hasn’t reached her level yet, unlike many of those here. In her first preparation she broke her maiden in good style at her second start before her fourth behind Discharged was full of merit as she was forced to loop the field. Has the early speed to use the good draw to hold a spot forward of midfield and she drops from 57kg down to 53.5kg with the slight rise in grade second up. Blinkers go on too. Looks to have been dismissed too quickly by the market.
Dangers: Not willing to discount any of these mares winning to be honest. It’s up for grabs. 1. Maddi Rocks will appreciate a drying Rosehill track and she generally runs well fresh. This is her first start for John O’Shea. 2. Misteed maps to get the run of the race and that’ll likely decide the winner in this. 5. Dame Kiri has three lengths to make up on Misteed but her run had merit. 8. Starla is close to another win but wanted to see her out in trip, not back to 1200m. The knock on 9. Turnstyle is that her two wins this perpetration have been from in front over 1100m on heavy tracks. 3. Stellar Pauline comes back from Listed company.
How to play it: Arousal EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Seleque winning last start, with Arousal in ninth
|Race 7 - 2:45PM XXXX WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES)|
Where’s the speed?! 8. True Detective looks the default leader, alongside 4. Ziegfeld perhaps, and although the four-year-old doesn’t make a habit of winning, it’s rare that he is far away. The other little query is how strong he’ll be at the end of 1500m having failed twice in the past over the trip. If he doesn’t run it in this, he never will. Comes off a string of placings, the latest of those both behind Bandersnatch, which looks the logical form reference. Recent history suggests that’s the case too which last year’s winner Mugatoo the exception. Bandersnatch won the Winter Stakes with sustained speed a fortnight ago so there was merit in True Detective’s second, which he held comfortably ahead of 3. Order Again.
Dangers: 5. Kirwans Lane career PB was three starts back but he has failed to replicate that in two runs since. Returns to the Rosehill 1500m, however, so everything might have aligned for a repeat which would likely win this. Especially given that he’s likely to box seat. 2. Countofmontecristo was an eye-catcher over 1100m at his first Australian start before he floundered in the heavy conditions second up. That was 1100m to 1400m with four weeks between runs so want to forgive him. Thinking it’s significant that J-Mac sticks. 9. Cisco Bay lost touch of the leading division last start. He’s up in grade but should be close enough if good enough this time.
How to play it: True Detective WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
True Detective last start in the Winter Stakes
|Race 8 - 3:25PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
1. Ashim chased a hot speed in a Midway won by Zorocat two weeks ago. The leader was paddling late and there to be beaten but in the slogging conditions, had pinched too big of a break. Imported galloper Ashim stuck to his task to hold down second with 2.5 lengths back to third. This is only the Matthew Smith-trained galloper’s first preparation in Australia but he looks to have settled in quickly as first up he produced an encouraging fourth behind Papal Warrior. All of his racing in France was done at 1400m and beyond so he’ll appreciate the extra journey. This isn’t any harder than last start and he maps to get the run of the race.
Dangers: 7. Altimeter comes through that same Midway. Has a big margin to turn around on Ashim, and the barrier looks tricky, but the Godolphin-bred gelding has been a handy pick up for Richard Litt. 12. Arctic Thunder could have done a touch more at Canterbury last start but he became detached at the top of the straight and was seven weeks between runs. Sets up to bounce off that and settles closer in this. 13. War Cabinet looks to have struck the right race at the right time. Has won two of his three starts this time back. He’ll just want the track to stay in the soft range.
How to play it: Ashim WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"This isn't any harder than last start and he maps to get the run of the race."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 22, 2021
|Race 9 - 4:05PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
In a race with chances right down the page the market is bound to miss one or two genuine winning hopes. The one that jumps out is 3. Above And Beyond. He can be hit and miss but his best definitely gives this a shake making him a worthwhile gamble as one of the rank outsiders in early betting. First up last preparation the gelding nearly ran down Never Talk over 1100m at Randwick, with Belluci Babe running third. He then just missed second up out to 1300m. It was a busy preparation last time in, which saw him win twice. One of those victories was a dominant win over Canasta. He didn’t find that level of form again in his five subsequent outings, despite winning again, but we know what he can do on his day.
Dangers: 4 Tycoonist got his dues last start and warrants respect again. Has the speed to overcome the wide draw and the drier track suits him even better on his past form. The scratching of Snitzify should see him roll across to make the running again or sit outside of the lead. 6. Smart Image has been dodging heavy tracks lately. This sets up perfectly for him. 1. Lancaster Bomber is close to another win. 10. Cuban Royale is a place hope.
How to play it: Above And Beyond EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Above And Beyond first up last preparation
|Race 10 - 4:45PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
3. Frosty Rocks will find the front, which is significant to his winning chances. The free-running grey resumed with a dominant victory over this same track and trip last preparation. His first up record is 4:2-0-1 and he kicks off his campaign with three trials under his belt, the latest of those being a second to Written Beauty in slick time. It’s all about the level of control Frosty Rocks gets in the middle stages. Also love the booking of Josh Parr, who has ridden him twice for two wins. He is a jockey that isn’t afraid to use sustained speed if it's the horse’s biggest weapon, as is the case with Frosty Rocks.
Dangers: This race looks to have fallen into the lap of Frosty Rocks after the scratchings of Madam Legend, Zakat and the only other potential leader Vitesse so that leaves 9. Bigboyroy as the most obvious threat. That said, he generally needs a run and 1300m is a touch short but he’s a player from the draw and with James McDonald riding. 6. Ventura Ocean and 4. Poetic Charmer look the best of the rest.
How to play it: Frosty Rocks WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Frosty Rocks trialling at Rosehill recently