Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 6m the entire with the first race set to jump at 12:45pm.
|Race 1 - 12:45PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Golden Legacy deserves a crack in a Highway Handicap having won his last two in dominant fashion. He won at Tamworth, his home deck, last time out in slick time. The son of Northern Meteor, who started his career with James Cummings but never made the track for him, is untried beyond 1000m but gives the impression he’ll have no trouble extending out to 1100m. Drawn to get his chance tucking in behind the speed with Hugh Bowman able to stalk his two main dangers in Try A Lil Harder and Camillo.
Danger: Camillo is a big unknown here. Bolted in at Grafton over 1400m the last time we saw him on race day. He had a trial back in October after that win but hasn’t been sighted since. You’ll have to take him on trust but he is good enough to do that with. Try A Lil Harder will give another sight while She Knows must be respected first up despite Danny Williams suggesting she will improve plenty from the run. The market looks to have it pretty right.
How to play it: Golden Legacy WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Golden Legacy winning at Tamworth last start
|Race 2 - 1:25PM #SLIPPERSTYLE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Bjorn Baker has found another very winnable race for Show A Star who has rediscovered his best form. The six-year-old chases a hat trick having won emphatically last start at Warwick Farm despite a big mid-race slow down. Punters’ Intel reveals his 600-400m split was by far the slowest in the race (12.39s) with Tim Clark really dropping the anchor. He accelerated quickly again though from the 400m which one him the race. It’s a great asset for a horse of his profile. He’s a tough, fit and makes his own luck. He is creeping up in the weights but Jean Van Overmeire takes three off and won on this horse two back.
Danger: Cellarman must be thriving in his work for Chris Waller for keep producing him at the races. This will be his 12th run of the campaign! He is not showing any signs of slowing down though winning three of his past four. Should be close enough to pounce if Show A Star is vulnerable at any stage. Expecting Alward to run a cheeky race fresh after a couple of surprisingly sharp trials. He had no luck over 1400m first up last preparation.
How to play it: Show A Star WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Show A Star winning at Warwick Farm last start
|Race 3 - 2:00PM TAB SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Estijaab has the advantage of barrier 1 which should see her hold the fence to take up the running. That is enough for me to lean me her way. She was brilliant winning on debut showing blistering speed before Brenton Avdulla allowed her to throttle down across the line. Despite that, it was officially a four length margin. She didn’t beat much but she couldn’t have done any more than that at her first outing. Her trial since was very strong, holding off Gongs, who also lines up here. She is a very well bred filly, by Snitzel out of Group One winner Response so her pedigree matches her ability. In the hands of Team Hawkes, it’s safe to assume we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of this filly yet.
Danger: Sunlight is the horse with the runs on the board. Her Magic Millions win was dominant and like Estijaab, she is a natural running two-year-old. The pace will be on but they are both good enough to sustain it. Throw in Neutrality and you’ve got one heck of a race.
How to play it: Estijaab WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Estijaab was brilliant on debut at Randwick
|Race 4 - 2:35PM SPARK OF LIFE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
If ever a horse needed to be gelded it was Marsupial. Had a bad habit of throwing his head around in the run and as a result threw races away. He has a devastating turn of foot when he conserves energy though. He came home in some very slick splits (final 600m of 33.13s) behind Tango Rain first up last time out and has the tactical speed to use the inside draw. Just the one trial but liked what we saw from him there. He was dragged back and it was encouraging to see him not resent the jockey doing that with him, like he has done in similar circumstances in the past. Hit the line nicely under very little riding.
Danger: Have got the stablemate Trekking pegged as the danger. Has also been gelded, and was also in need of it. He was there to win races but wasn’t putting fields away. Was only 2.3L off Menari first up last time in. Glyn Schofield looks to have opted to ride him over Marsupial. The price allows you to back both but Marsupial at $5 gets the nod. Think they’ll be fighting out the finish.
How to play it: Marsupial WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE on Trekking ($4.20)
Marsupials’ encouraging trial – Feb 12
|Race 5 - 3:10PM VINERY STUD MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300 METRES)|
You wouldn’t be lining up to back Foxplay in Bathurst maiden off her trials but she has never been one to dazzle in practice. She saves her best for race day. In her two trials she has finished last in both, and under riding. That’s why we are getting $5 about a Group One-winning mare who ran Winx to a head first up in the Warwick Stakes last campaign (albeit with Winx bombing the start!). She then ran third in the G1 George Main before running a big fourth in the Epsom from an impossible spot back in the field. Hugh Bowman steers from a good draw. Is she going as well as she has in the past? We won’t know until Saturday but at the price she is worth a ticket to find out.
Danger: Daysee Doom ran third in this race last year behind In Her Time. She finds 1200m too sharp and think the mile sees her out so the 1300m is in her wheelhouse. Insensata doesn’t have the class of most of her rivals here but she strikes the race at the right time and will be charging late. Prompt Response was very good first up but she is short enough. The query is that she wants further already now.
How to play it: Foxplay WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Foxplay giving Winx a fright in the Warwick Stakes
|Race 6 - 3:45PM PARRAMATTA ADVERTISER CUP (1900 METRES)|
Supply And Demand has been up since late October and deep into a campaign but he was up for 10 runs last campaign and he strung four together at the back end of that prep. That gives me confidence he won’t be training off. In three of those four wins he was able to dictate from the front. Hasn’t been able to do that over the shorter trips so far this time in. Want Adam Hyronimus to be aggressive from the inside draw to hold out Singing. Supply And Demand gave away 7.5kg to Show A Star last time out at Warwick Farm, where he made a surge from the 600-400m (clocking 11.71s via Punters’ Intel). That told at the finish.
Danger: Singing has won three on the bounce. He led and kept finding in the Gosford Cup last time we saw him to record an arrogant win. The query the month between runs against the rock hard fit Waterhouse-trained horse. Liapari, who looks to want this trip now, next best. The knock on Carzoff is the draw as he looks to possess a short, sharp dash.
How to play it: Supply And Demand WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Supply And Demand was game behind Show A Star last start
|Race 7 - 4:25PM CHANDON S CHIC EASY HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400 METRES)|
It’s only February but this could be race of the autumn! Kementari and Trapeze Artist have met once before in the Coolmore down the straight but both were at the end of their preps and went awful finishing 15th and 16th so that tells us nothing. Kemetari kidded with his rivals in the Eskimo Prince dashing home his last in 33.75s (and 11.33s for his last 200m) according to Punters’ Intel. That was despite Glyn Schofield still having a few gears up his sleeve. Schofield will need to be on his game from barrier 9 not wanting to set him mission impossible given Trapeze Artist and Siege Of Quebec look to get control up front.
Danger: Trapeze Artist was strong winning the Expressway. He is a strong colt so will come on from that. He is probably open to more improvement than Kementari, who is a more athletic type. It’s hard to ignore his Golden Rose win over the Rosehill 1400m. Huge threat. Siege Of Quebec is desperate for 1400m and gets on pace favours while Assimilate did more than enough first up. Then there is Pierata, D’argento and Ace High!
How to play it: Kementari WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
What a return it was from Kementari!
|Race 8 - 5:05PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Perizada is still largely underrated despite her great record. This Canberra-trained mare has won eight of her 21 starts including first up in her home state. At first glance it’s easy to be dismissive of her narrow first up win but it was an enormous effort to get home there with 61kg (that was even after the 3kg claim), travelling wide the trip and over 1000m. Worth noting that in the post-race interview, connections revealed she’d done very little work going into the race. She ran second in Group Three company back in September behind Ravi. Drawn to get a lovely trail tucked in behind the speed.
Danger: Hieroglyphics goes in for second. She charged home first up off a lengthy spell, recording 11.08s for her last 200m via Punters’ Intel. All four of her wins have been first or second up so you want to catch her early in her campaign. She has come off lengthy spells in the past and backed up big fresh runs with good second up efforts so don’t expect her to be a touch flat here. Memes is much better suited back to 1100m. She gets found out at 1200m in Group company. She’ll run her typical honest race while the same can be said for Fickle Folly.
How to play it: Perizada EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Perizada’s Sheraco run over this same track and trip
|Race 9 - 5:45PM TRIPLE M MARQUEE HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
Etymology ran a very cheeky race first up last campaign – and do the same here at big odds. It was the race best remembered for Tom Melbourne and Washington Heights both being luckless. It wasn’t a bad field with Sarrasin, That’s A Good Idea and Oxford Poet all in there too. Worth noting that he was in the market that day too at $9.50. His one trial was good, coasting home under a throttle after a slow getaway. It’s easy to forget he is Group One placed albeit in a Victoria Derby – behind Tarzino in 2015 – hence the big weight. Hoping he can settle midfield and come charging home down the middle of the track come the last of the day.
Danger: Expecting Jamizah to show up fresh. Hugh Bowman goes on, 1350m first up and liked his latest trial. The four-year-old was scratched from a wide draw last week. That suggests to me they think he can win first up and didn’t want to waste a run. Lofty’s Menu missed by the barest of margins second up. He looks ready now and should be able to turn the tables on Bratislava who he meets again here. Can poke a few holes in Dagny and Up ‘N’ Rolling so want to be against them at the current odds.
How to play it: Etymology WIN ($34 TAB Fixed Odds) and Jaminzah WIN ($11)
Etymology’s first up effort last time in