By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:55PM ABLE DOORS SPARK OF LIFE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Willowheart is two from two and deserves a crack in Saturday company. The rise in grade sees the filly in with 52.5kg. Last start at Canterbury she got complete control of the race and held her rivals off, as she was entitled to do given the setup. It was a deep BM64 though. That was on a wet track so we know she’ll handle whatever Saturday’s track throws up. On debut, she held off stablemate Starla having found the front but she didn’t get a cosy lead there, having to spear forward in the early stages. She was there to be beaten and gapped third in the process. 2. Acumen has been scratched from Canterbury to run here so the map is a little tricky for Kathy O’Hara and Willowheart but she’s fast enough early to give O’Hara options.
Dangers: Certainly respect Acumen given how well he has returned as a gelding. First up at Gosford he broke the 1100m track record, which isn’t a bad way to shed your maiden tag! He then lined up in a Class 1 at Wyong at $1.30 and got the job done, albeit scrambling home. That second up regression is a concern now third up. Godolphin are well represented. 3. Deference kept finding the line first up despite finding himself in an unfamiliar position back in the pack. Reluctant to underestimate 8. Screenager in the royal blue as well. 1. Splintex has contested Listed races in two of his past four outings.
How to play it: How to play it: Willowheart WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Willowheart winning at Canterbury first up
|Race 2 - 1:30PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
6. Alot To Hoffa is still in his first racing preparation but like what the Ben Blay-trained gelding has done to date. The son of Bon Hoffa is making up for lost time given he didn’t debut until he was six! Four starts in, he has won two and that should’ve been three. Last start he was tried in Highway company for the first time and after settling midfield regular rider Mikayla Weir couldn’t angle a clear path, running second to Greenspan. That horse is a solid benchmark given his consistency in Highways. That was a set weights Highway but he is better suited under the handicap conditions carrying just 52kg after Weir’s 3kg claim. There is a stack of chances in one of the deepest Highways for some time but it’s the right set up for Alot To Hoffa to be in the finish again at odds. We’ve lost the likely leader in Northern Wilderose, so hoping for a positive ride on Alot To Hoffa.
Dangers: 1. Mr Wong is the best credentialed runner in the field hence the 58.5kg and love the way he won first up over 1200m. Out to 1400m is perfect now with trainer Stephen Jones eyeing off the Tamworth Country Championships Qualifier third up. If the four-year-old jumps as cleanly as first up and settles handy, barrier 1 won’t matter but if he doesn’t, the gate could cause a few problems. 5. Two Big Fari was beaten by a smart mare at Newcastle last start in On The White Turf. Expect him to race prominently. 10. Boom Gate will settle at the opposite end but be charging late. Trialled well against Mr Wong recently. The last time 2. Zardoro won a race was at this corresponding Rosehill meeting last year in a Highway over 1100m.
How to play it: Alot To Hoffa EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
A repeat of last start has Alot To Hoffa in the finish again
|Race 3 - 2:05PM INGLIS SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)|
3. Blaze A Trail is the only horse here capable of knocking off 6. Cellsabeel, which is largely the rationale behind tipping him to beat the current Golden Slipper favourite. Remember, he started hard in the market on debut in the Golden Gift, led, fired up in front but still fought on to run third. Cellsabeel thundered home into fourth. The Golden Gift is the strongest two-year-race we’ve seen in Sydney to date this season. Out of that race, Cellsabeel subsequently went around at $2 and Dame Giselle, although beaten, jumped $1.65. So why no respect for Blaze A Trail? The son of Criterion can only improve on what he did on debut. Cellsabeel is a deserving short-priced favourite but at the very least Blaze A Trail should be clear second favourite. Have to back him at the price, especially if it stays a fields of eight and we get an each way price.
Dangers: Cellsabeel demolished her rivals at Rosehill last start, skipping through the heavy conditions. Her acceleration was brilliant. The form from the race is questionable but she beat them by seven lengths and the clock doesn’t lie. The difference with her and Dame Giselle last week is that Cellsabeel doesn’t have the prizemoney to be guaranteed a start in the Slipper yet so this is a mini grand final for her. 4. North Pacific is a fascinating runner being a first starter for Team Hawkes. Just the one trial, and on the synthetic, but he took late ground off 1. Farnan, also here after a forgettable Magic Millions.
How to play it: Blaze A Trail EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
The Golden Gift featuring Blaze A Trail and Cellsabeel
|Race 4 - 2:40PM TAB MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300 METRES)|
1. White Moss won the Millie Fox last year, holding off 2. Savatiano. White Moss was second up there and Savatiano first up. It was a soft track and there was a kilo between them. Déjà vu? It’s scary how similar the scenario is. The big difference is we aren’t getting $51 about White Moss in the race this time around on the back of a great return in the G2 Expressway. The six-year-old grey sat outside of 5. Irithea in the run before boxing away to finish third beaten by gun three-year-old Standout and subsequent Apollo Stakes winner Alizee. Back in fourth was Kolding. Even the sixth placed Vegadaze has franked the form, dominating a BM88 from the front last Saturday. White Moss has won three from four second up, loves the sting out and like the set up, tagging Irithea again.
Dangers: There aren’t too many mares in training that can match 2. Savatiano on her day. At her best she is explosive. We saw that on two occasions last campaign, second up at Caulfield and then fourth up at Newcastle where she led and broke the track record. Can forget third up as it was over the mile which she doesn’t see out but what about first up? She’s brilliant but inconsistent and has been priced assuming she brings her A-game. Irithea knocked up in the Expressway, perhaps on inferior ground. Her best chance would be the let rip in front now she is fit. 3. Invincible Gem ran second in the G2 Villiers last start, giving Quackerjack 3kg and ran second to Alizee first up last preparation.
How to play it: White Moss WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
White Moss in the Expressway
|Race 5 - 3:15PM BLUE DATTO FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Love the placement of 6. Black Magnum in this. He skips a few grades from a BM76 to a BM94 but gets in with 52kg after the claim of regular rider Robbie Dolan. The four-year-old is more accustomed to lumping 60kg, as he did on the Kensington track first up when reeling in Clear The Beach. The winning margin wasn’t great but it was a dominant win, with four lengths back to third. Punters Intelligence shows that Mark Newham’s sprinter clocked 33.67s for his last 600m, two lengths quicker than the next best. That was on a good track. Black Magnum is even more at home on wet tracks boasting a record of 5:2-1-1 on soft and heavy decks, with the miss his second career start as a two-year-old. He has tackled the Rosehill 1100m once before and ran second to God Of Thunder. That’s good enough to win this.
Dangers: 8. River Bird ran the fastest closing splits (last 600m and last 200m) all day first up. That was over 1100m at Rosehill on a wet track. She gets that same set up here looking to bounce back from a poor second up run on top of the ground. Was a late scratching from the Triscay last Saturday over 1200m. Not ideal back to 1100m but the wet track and 52kg counter that. Four of 2. Spending To Win’s five wins have been from the front. 1. Greyworm won three from five last preparation and is the class runner here but the map looks sticky from the wide draw and he needed the run first up last time, as well as more ground, to find his best form.
How to play it: Black Magnum WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA 4,9 Odds & Evens: EVENS
BEST BET 🚨
"He skips a few grades but gets in with just 52kg."@BradJGray has singled out a @mark_mnracing trained sprinter as his best of the day at Rosehill @Darby_Racing @tabcomau @mark_mnracing pic.twitter.com/LAXaRK4yKj
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) February 20, 2020
|Race 6 - 3:50PM PARRAMATTA CUP (1900 METRES)|
2. Red Cardinal won this race first up last year with 58kg and Jason Collett aboard. He rises 1.5kg from that, which seems fair and retains the same rider. Twelve months ago Samadoubt led at a fast clip setting it up for a run on horse and Punters Intelligence shows Red Cardinal’s last 600m of 35.01s was 3.5L quicker than the next best. Significantly, this edition sets up to be truly run again with trio 9. Fun Fact, 10. Toryjoy and 11. Mushaireb carving at each other in front. The Kris Lees-trained stayer is an eight-year-old now but he is lightly-raced and showed glimpses over the spring on firm tracks. He’ll be much more at home back to Rosehill with the cut out of the ground. Has only trialled once this time back, and it was in mid-January which is curious but happy to gamble he can defend his title.
Dangers: 3. Wu Gok was pretty ordinary second up given he had his favoured heavy conditions, however, he wants this staying trip now and maps beautifully. Just wish he showed a touch more last start. Should trail the hot speed and get first crack in the straight. On his form at the backend of last campaign he could win a race like this. The knock on 8. Etana is the price. She was a dominant winner at the Magic Millions carnival last start. Punters got a glimpse of her last Saturday in a gallop with Cellsabeel and if anything, she upstaged her work partner. 4. Eastender was doing his best work through the line first up and is worth including in wider exotics.
How to play it: Red Cardinal WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) February 20, 2020
|Race 7 - 4:30PM ARROWFIELD HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400 METRES)|
Really believe that the map holds the key to finding the winner in this so we’ll know our fate in the first 200 metres with 6. Prince Fawaz, but gambling that he can box seat from the inside draw. There is not much speed here with Melbourne visitor 9. The Holy One the likely leader with 2. Microphone working across to be handy from the wide draw. Prince Fawaz showed very little last campaign after winning the G1 JJ Atkins as a two-year-old but his two trials this time in suggest he is back on track. Loved the gate speed this Anthony Cummings-trained colt has shown. He has chased home Sweet Deal in both hitouts and that mare subsequently towelled up her rivals in the Triscay. The blinkers are saved for race day too. It’s a punt but we’re getting big odds to find out. A number of key hopes are going to be giving away a big start in what shapes as a slowly run affair.
Dangers: 7. Pancho made a big leap forward last preparation starting in the midweeks before winning a Listed race at Flemington three starts later. There wasn’t a lot between him and 5. Kubrick in the Bondi Stakes over the spring and Kubrick maps to be giving Pancho a two length head start this time instead of the other way around given the draws. Liked the way Pancho has trialled too. 2. Microphone scored a grinding win in the Autumn Stakes last start and has fitness edge on all of his rivals but he’s well found in the market. Look out for 1. Castelvecchio and 4. Shadow Hero charging home together like in the Dulcify first up last preparation.
How to play it: Prince Fawaz WIN ($21TAB Fixed Odds) and Pancho WIN ($19) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Prince Fawaz’s first trial this preparation – Randwick, January 23
|Race 8 - 5:10PM ADVANCED READYMIX HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Have got high hopes for 1. Wolfe this autumn. Expect to see a sharper version of the five-year-old with co-trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott eyeing off the Doncaster. Over the spring he kicked off over 1800m beating Stampede before ending his preparation in the Caulfield Cup. There’s a school of thought that he is a miler/2000m horse, however. We’ve seen him dash quickly over the shorter trips in Australian already. Would be a lot more confident if it was a Good track as his one heavy track run was a shocker. For his sake, hoping the track improves significantly into the soft range. He maps to land outside of 2. Cradle Mountain and that duo should control the race. Was held together in his two trials, both on heavy ground, the first of those he settled second behind speedster Nature Strip. Expect him to be very forward for this fresh assignment.
Dangers: Cradle Mountain got control in the Carrington last start but did it both ends, quickening from the front and running fast time over the Randwick 1400m. Clare Cunningham has found another race where he can dictate, which is crucial to the six-year-old’s chance. He is a control freak, with all seven of his career wins coming from in front. Big watch on 3. Wren’s Day resuming a gelding. Was backed as if unbeatable on his Australian debut but failed to fire. Ran second to Cracksman over 2100m two years ago. Like the way he coasted to the line in his trial. 4. Master Of Wine and new addition to the Waller yard 7. Djukon will be hitting the line as they head towards Group One staying targets.
How to play it: Wolfe EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Wolfe tackling 1800m first up last preparation
|Race 9 - 5:50PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
10. Bottega wouldn’t be out of place in the Hobartville but instead here he is in a BM78. The three-year-old Snitzel colt burst onto the scene last preparation with two dominant provincial wins, the first of those over Brandenburg before starting favourite in the Stan Fox. Admittedly, it was a weak Group Two but it was a giant leap and although he didn’t win, he wasn’t entitled to get as close as he did given the shape of the race. Forget his Bondi Stakes flop where the addition of blinkers backfired and he covered ground. Wouldn’t be too critical on his trial in a very fast heat behind God Of Thunder and like the wide draw for him too given he takes time to click through his gears. Three wide with cover would be ideal and he’ll be forward in condition for trainer Gerald Ryan.
Dangers: 13. Subpoenaed closed hard first up to put her rivals away. This is a lot deeper and would’ve preferred her stepping straight out to the mile now. Expect she’ll go Kembla Grange Classic into the Vinery from here. Smart filly and will be making her run with Bottega but shouldn’t be half his odds. 5. Positive Peace is back to 1400m from the mile, where she won by the length of the straight. Will need to absorb more pressure in this but the main knock is the early price. It’s worth noting that Godolphin filly 9. Asiago was also nominated for the Millie Fox. She ripped through the grades last preparation winning a provincial maiden to four starts later winning a Group Three. 8. Killer Instinct, 11. On The White Turf and 12. Nudge not without a hope either.
How to play it: Bottega EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bottega beating Brandenburg on debut back in September